Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

I'm still banking on the EAP and FSD fire sale this past month to provide a nice bump in revenue and maybe profit. Tesla obviously doesn't plan this kind of thing out so if the income there is sizable that should also be a surprise.

My current thinking is that -- if end of month delivery goes well -- Q1 will post a small profit. IMO the EAP/FSD sales will not pull in enough to make an appreciable dent in the numbers, though I'd love to be surprised.

As far as these things go, I think a small Q1 profit is a good result and lines up nicely with a post-Q2 S&P conclusion. However, I'm not holding my breath that the stock price will improve even with S&P inclusion (and those are guidelines, not rules, so Tesla could be excluded without any reason given). Again, I'd love to be surprised, but I think it will take a lot longer for the market to "catch on."

 

[Sparky]

Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge

Tesla Model 3: 4198
Volkswagen Golf: 808
Nissan Leaf: 644
Bmw I3: 634
Audi E-tron: 596
Jaguar I-pace: 366
Hyundai Kona: 323
Hyundai Ioniq: 302
Tesla Motors Model X: 264
Renault Zoe: 247
Nissan Nissan E-nv200: 215
Kia Niro: 172
Tesla Motors Model S: 150
Kia Soul: 103
Opel Ampera-e: 59
Volkswagen Up!: 53
Fiat 500 Electric: 42

... and so increasingly minor players. 9287 total this month.

Wow. Impulse function. Does Norway data indicate these are new registrations (Model 3 of course is)?
If new, is there a way to learn whether M3 buyers are trading in from older EVs, or ICE?
Norway 2019, certainly seems like a tipping point for EV adoption and watching how things play out is fascinating. For example, if those ICE vehicles that were traded in are fetching substantially lower resale values there could be a race to the exits when SR, SR+ present themselves to Europe. Consequences around the EU could be early removal of incentives or tailoring the incentives to PHEVs made in larger quantities by EU manufacturers or ...

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Agree. If that were to happen, we would be deeply, deeply red.

For awhile but I'd guess that within 6 months it would be back to the Musk-days levels. The vast majority of the technical advances and car designs, vision-based driving, powerpack & batteries they've needed to develop, penetrate & disrupt key markets cost effectively are done or nearly done, so as long as the next CEO continued executing the mission on the course already set Tesla will recover and continue apace. Moreover, it's not hard to imagine that 5 years from now Elon chooses to become less involved with the day to day activities as the more enjoyable creative & technical challenges of designing & producing revolutionary new products may be largely accomplished. Mission 1 of having the dreadnaught juggernaut on course to save this planet will be in motion and Mission 2 of colonizing Mars will be looming ever larger and taking more time...

 

[ReflexFunds]

I wouldn't be worried about Elon losing the CEO position or stepping down, so long as he is replaced by an insider like Jerome or JB who understand the urgency of Tesla's mission. I'm sure Elon would still lead engineering, vision and product roadmap and still have a lot of influence over strategy.

To be clear, I still think Elon is easily the best person to run Tesla. I also think he has done nothing to deserve being deposed and if the judge attempts to do so it would be extremely unjust.

I also think the immediate reaction would be a sharp drop in the stock price. However I don't think the removal of Elon would significantly change how Tesla is run day to day. I also think it is far from certain that the removal of Elon would hold back the share price in the medium term. There is already a very significant Elon uncertainty discount priced into the stock (both from this latest issue, but generally since the SEC settlement). Elon has also been the focus of much of the FUD attacks against Tesla and the centre of much of the controversy. The vast majority of investors in the capital markets have never touched Tesla and might be more likely to invest if they had a less colourful CEO less tainted by FUD.

But my key point is that Tesla is Elon. He has set the culture, the vision, the first principles thinking, the ambition, the rapid and flexible decision making. The 40k+ employees at Tesla have learnt the Elon way and believe in his vision. Even if Elon stepped away completely his influence would be ingrained in the company for years or even decades to come.

In particular Jerome seems to think and work in an extremely similar way to Elon - he has the same work ethic, he is also an engineer at heart and thinks up out of the box solutions. Jerome has also managed most parts of Tesla's business in his 9 years at the company. I genuinely think managing Tesla may be the hardest job in the world right now and I don't think any external candidate could have hope of being up to the task, but I have high confidence that Jerome would be, particularly with Elon still at his side.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Now we’re scared to show our support? They already think we’re a cult, so not showing public support suddenly change their minds? Um...no. Hell, no.

Ridiculous thought process and you’ve now let *them* dictate what you do or don’t do for *appearances* sake. Screw that.

Wear your hats and t-shirts and flaunt the fact you support Tesla and Elon Musk. Power to the people and all that. Flood the courtroom, pack it lime sardines and let *them* all know you will not go away, you will not hide, you will not behave the way *they* want you to.

Nobody is suggesting we walk in there and start a riot, but neither should we hide and submit.

Respect the court and its process AND show your support for Tesla and Elon Musk.

Depends on subtleties. A judge might respect fans motivated to save the planet, but have no great respect for people motivated by a faster 0 to 60 time. Can a judge spot a revhead at 30 paces? Quite possibly.

 

[shlokavica22]

So Model 3 is over 50% of all EVs.

And on the way expanding the overall EV market, showing clearly the EV market is not a separate/niche one. Double yummy.

I gave that a “helpful” rating, but I want to clarify this idea is mostly helpful to the Shorty Air Force

Yeah, 'cause the dirty bastards were waiting for Freder Reeve to come up with ideas.

 

[Nocturnal]

My current thinking is that -- if end of month delivery goes well -- Q1 will post a small profit. IMO the EAP/FSD sales will not pull in enough to make an appreciable dent in the numbers, though I'd love to be surprised.

As far as these things go, I think a small Q1 profit is a good result and lines up nicely with a post-Q2 S&P conclusion. However, I'm not holding my breath that the stock price will improve even with S&P inclusion (and those are guidelines, not rules, so Tesla could be excluded without any reason given). Again, I'd love to be surprised, but I think it will take a lot longer for the market to "catch on."

Yeah I'm very wary of anecdotal data, but I'm seeing many groups (such as my local tesla group) where a sizable percent of people jumped on an upgrade. Now, the people who belong to groups are the type to be more likely to upgrade for sure, but at 2-5k a pop the conversion rate doesn't need to be very high on the # of cars out there to be a nice chunk of cash. Definitely feels like a tiny profit in Q1 is probably best case.

 

[Sparky]

Wow. Impulse function. Does Norway data indicate these are new registrations (Model 3 of course is)?
If new, is there a way to learn whether M3 buyers are trading in from older EVs, or ICE?
Norway 2019, certainly seems like a tipping point for EV adoption and watching how things play out is fascinating. For example, if those ICE vehicles that were traded in are fetching substantially lower resale values there could be a race to the exits when SR, SR+ present themselves to Europe. Consequences around the EU could be early removal of incentives or tailoring the incentives to PHEVs made in larger quantities by EU manufacturers or ...

Just found this:
Requires some translation.

 

[X Fan]

That alone will

Yeah I'm very wary of anecdotal data, but I'm seeing many groups (such as my local tesla group) where a sizable percent of people jumped on an upgrade. Now, the people who belong to groups are the type to be more likely to upgrade for sure, but at 2-5k a pop the conversion rate doesn't need to be very high on the # of cars out there to be a nice chunk of cash. Definitely feels like a tiny profit in Q1 is probably best case.

Hearing same. IMHO, this upgrade path covers for loss of S/X volume’s margin.

 

[Sancho]

Here are the current S&P 500 inclusion thresholds, to the best of my knowledge:

• S&P 500 inclusion of TSLA in Q1 will require a Q1 GAAP profit of at least ~$267m - making May-June inclusion possible.
• If Q1 profits are smaller than $267m or Tesla posts a small loss, but Q2 is profitable by any minimal margin, then S&P 500 inclusion conditions will be met by Q2 - making August-September inclusion possible.

Latest guidance from Elon was this, 4 week ago:

Elon Musk: "Given that there is just a lot happening in Q1. And we're taking a lot of sort of a lot of onetime charges and there's a lot of challenges getting cars to China and and Europe. We do not expect to be profitable in Q1. But we do think that profitability in Q2 is likely."​

I.e. Elon reduced guidance from Q1 "tiny profits" to "we do not expect to be profitable in Q1".

I'd say that $267m+ profits have low probability at this point. The deliveries & production report will refine this.

Not advice.

Yes, but are there still challenges getting cars to China and Europe as was feared last month? Do we have any evidence of large shipments of cars heading to Europe or China that won’t make it in time for Q1 delivery?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

That alone will

Yeah I'm very wary of anecdotal data, but I'm seeing many groups (such as my local tesla group) where a sizable percent of people jumped on an upgrade. Now, the people who belong to groups are the type to be more likely to upgrade for sure, but at 2-5k a pop the conversion rate doesn't need to be very high on the # of cars out there to be a nice chunk of cash. Definitely feels like a tiny profit in Q1 is probably best case.

I bought autopilot for the 3 during the sale. If Tesla posts a $2,000 profit in Q1 I’ll take the credit for S&P inclusion

Edit: Oh yeah, also a coffee mug, two keybands and a Model 3 keyfob. Profitability secured.

 

[Cobos]

I don't believe there are dedicated websites, or public surveys for any other brand's sales number.

Yes there is
Actually all this data is scraped from our DMV records by the scripts from Lasse that he turns into very nice "realtime" graphs. I'm guessing it's not true realtime but he fetches data every 5 or 15 mins or so. Anyway if you go to one of his other sites
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
you get a list of all sales of all electric cars in Norway. Scroll down you will find both i-pace and e-tron. E tron is very good at almost 600 this month but that is essentially their first month of registrations as well. You can also click on the model name to get a dedicated page with graphs for that specific model.

 

[anthonyj]

What caused the spike? I go have lunch for an hour and come back and see it went from 268 to 275 wtf?

 

[lklundin]

Just found this:
Requires some translation.

View attachment 390891

That state owned media writes that headline over a photo with a clearly recognizable logo of a car maker is telling.

As in: "VW, here is a certain finger for you and your emissions".

 

[KarenRei]

What caused the spike? I go have lunch for an hour and come back and see it went from 268 to 275 wtf?

"Following but beating macros".

 

[jhm]

Wow. Impulse function. Does Norway data indicate these are new registrations (Model 3 of course is)?
If new, is there a way to learn whether M3 buyers are trading in from older EVs, or ICE?
Norway 2019, certainly seems like a tipping point for EV adoption and watching how things play out is fascinating. For example, if those ICE vehicles that were traded in are fetching substantially lower resale values there could be a race to the exits when SR, SR+ present themselves to Europe. Consequences around the EU could be early removal of incentives or tailoring the incentives to PHEVs made in larger quantities by EU manufacturers or ...

Less visible is that Norway is the largest importer of used EVs. That's got to be tough on ICE resale values.

From California to Oslo: foreign subsidies fuel Norway's e-car boom, for now | Reuters

 

[lklundin]

Yes, but are there still challenges getting cars to China and Europe as was feared last month? Do we have any evidence of large shipments of cars heading to Europe or China that won’t make it in time for Q1 delivery?

No.

But 300 Tesla's reportedly missed the boat at Pier 80. They were photographed there (and were later moved).

Also, more northern parts of Norway (e.g. Trondheim) has reports of delivery appointments in early April, so there is going to be some leaks into Q2 here and there.

 

[Chop110]

I don't believe there are dedicated websites, or public surveys for any other brand's sales number.

Maybe the sites that cover drone footage of Audi and Jaguars sitting in a parking lot will have that information... oh wait...

Actually I am curious to see how the I-pace and e-tron are selling now. I remember some SA headline in January proclaiming the death of Tesla because the I-pace was selling so well in Norway when it first came out. Nothing against other ev’s. I say bring them on, just don’t hype them up as a “Tesla killer”.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Any thoughts on why 7 months after starting to install PV panels on GF1 Tesla has stopped adding to the first section?
PV on building appears to be only 10% complete. I thought Panasonic was producing substantial volume of older style
panels at GF2.

Everybody is busy delivering cars?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Broke through 5k Model 3s in Q1 in Norway. By the end of the week we should be at 5k in March alone. Still while other countries will show healthy numbers as well, important to note Norway is an outlier when it comes to EVs, not the rule.

I am really curious if Model 3 will break through the German mainstream EV attitude this year. That is a humongous untapped market.