Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cobos]

Less visible is that Norway is the largest importer of used EVs. That's got to be tough on ICE resale values.

From California to Oslo: foreign subsidies fuel Norway's e-car boom, for now | Reuters

Keep in mind that many of those "used" cars are sold from Germany or other neighbouring countries. The car dealer registers the car and gets the EV incentive and sells it to a dealer in Norway that sells the car with 50km on the odo as a "used" car. Though I think I saw an old RAV4 EV with Tesla inside a few days ago on my way to work. So there are quite a few genuinily used cars also sold here.

 

[humbaba]

Maybe the sites that cover drone footage of Audi and Jaguars sitting in a parking lot will have that information... oh wait...

Actually I am curious to see how the I-pace and e-tron are selling now. I remember some SA headline in January proclaiming the death of Tesla because the I-pace was selling so well in Norway when it first came out. Nothing against other ev’s. I say bring them on, just don’t hype them up as a “Tesla killer”.

Yes, all EVs are "good" but some are better than others

So... the total of all i-pace registered in Norway is 1933. That's, what, less than a week of M3 registrations? Their current rate appears to be one month of i-pace to one day of M3. Clearly, being M3 introduction, these numbers are not likely sustainable. But i-pace best month was last October at 444 cars. The M3 has multiple days better than that.

source: Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge

[holy cr*p. I just realized Tesla has, in one quarter, doubled the best year of any other EV. --edited I was misreading the table. best year was leaf at ~13k which should fall this year to the M3]

 

[ruralectric]

Any thoughts on why 7 months after starting to install PV panels on GF1 Tesla has stopped adding to the first section?
PV on building appears to be only 10% complete. I thought Panasonic was producing substantial volume of older style
panels at GF2.

Pure speculation of course, but I've always assumed that the roof installation is multi-purpose: Power for GF1 of course, but also a testbed for panel design changes and how well they age. Could also be part of an in-house powerwall/powerpack testbed. And would also make sense that they wouldn't install a bunch of panels if there are panel cost reductions in the works. And as others have noted, prioritization of where they spend the money. Lots of possibilities.

 

[avoigt]

I concur with your observations - that's the reason I posted it here. There is a bonus for Tesla here: they will succeed, since the legacy car makers have not enough strength by themselves. (Also ref. the cooperation with Amazon which is more than just a supplier deal, the joint work of Ford & VW on some of their platforms etc.)
But there is a malus in there for Tesla, too: since German politicians see this as a matter of industry politics, they will quite happily do everything in their power to cut out Tesla, unless Tesla (somehow) becomes part of the German car maker circus... German institutions have a clear anti-Tesla bias and I fear this will increase.

If - despite all of this - Tesla should soar in Germany, I would see this as a very very very(!) strong move. I think Tesla had a strong showing in mind for Model S which didn't happen. February numbers for the Model 3 were positive, if March is even more positive, I think we might be able to shift the narrative.

Either way: we will see. I maintain my point, that Germany will remain difficult for Tesla (@avoigt might want to provide his more optimistic view of the situation).

Happy to, in my view Tesla will deliver excellent numbers for the 3 in Germany in March and ongoing increasing over the course of 2019 to not seen BEV levels and keeping the German Automakers to share 25 - 30% of the rest in 2020 - 2021. Thats mainly when the SR comes to market.

Thats the optimistic view. On the pessimistic side Automakers will try to design incentives in a way that they benefit most. Politicians intend to protect the auto industry because of jobs and taxes but not to keep Tesla out. Because they are no experts, laws and incentives are written from Staastsekretären (second row politicians who do the heavy lifting but are not in the lime light nor are elected) who are limited in resources and use industry support (lobbyist) to write law and regulation drafts.

By doing that the Auto industry has a strong influence on the design of incentives.

More BEV incentives will come in Germany. The finance Minister Scholz today agreed that a BEV incentive should not be proposed for a few years but rather for decades to create stability for investments. Diess was the one proposing that.

So its a mixed bag.

 

[Nocturnal]

Broke through 5k Model 3s in Q1 in Norway. By the end of the week we should be at 5k in March alone. Still while other countries will show healthy numbers as well, important to note Norway is an outlier when it comes to EVs, not the rule.

I am really curious if Model 3 will break through the German mainstream EV attitude this year. That is a humongous untapped market.

It would be nice to see Europeans put their money where their mouth's are when it comes to climate change.

 

[AlMc]

Since I realize that my post was open to interpretation, I just want to point out that I would not recommend anyone to break the law (nor the etiquette).

Just talked via phone with a nice person in the Clerk's Office of S. District Court NYC. All questions answered. Phone taken on entering and you are given a 'hat check' for it. I can check the judge's schedule next week and plant myself in her courtroom the minute it opens IF she has an earlier case. 'Should not be a problem getting a seat as SEC vs EM probably not that big a deal' (per clerk)......Not buying that one

If any other 'Tesla person' is going....Lunch from the court vending machine on me ( especially if you save my seat for Restroom breaks )

Going to be discreet. No T shirts with 'Short Enrichment Commission'/Tesla jacket though I might give myself away IF I high five his lawyers as they enter the courtroom

 

[Singuy]

To be clear, I still think Elon is easily the best person to run Tesla. I also think he has done nothing to deserve being deposed and if the judge attempts to do so it would be extremely unjust.

I also think the immediate reaction would be a sharp drop in the stock price. However I don't think the removal of Elon would significantly change how Tesla is run day to day. I also think it is far from certain that the removal of Elon would hold back the share price in the medium term. There is already a very significant Elon uncertainty discount priced into the stock (both from this latest issue, but generally since the SEC settlement). Elon has also been the focus of much of the FUD attacks against Tesla and the centre of much of the controversy. The vast majority of investors in the capital markets have never touched Tesla and might be more likely to invest if they had a less colourful CEO less tainted by FUD.

But my key point is that Tesla is Elon. He has set the culture, the vision, the first principles thinking, the ambition, the rapid and flexible decision making. The 40k+ employees at Tesla have learnt the Elon way and believe in his vision. Even if Elon stepped away completely his influence would be ingrained in the company for years or even decades to come.

In particular Jerome seems to think and work in an extremely similar way to Elon - he has the same work ethic, he is also an engineer at heart and thinks up out of the box solutions. Jerome has also managed most parts of Tesla's business in his 9 years at the company. I genuinely think managing Tesla may be the hardest job in the world right now and I don't think any external candidate could have hope of being up to the task, but I have high confidence that Jerome would be, particularly with Elon still at his side.

The amount of marketing and brand power Tesla will lose without Elon is ENORMOUS! There's a reason why every short seller and Spiegel wants Elon in jail. They know that TSLA will be in sub 200s or maybe even sub 100s if Elon is gone. There are way more reason to buy a Tesla other than the car is great. People want to get behind Elon, which is the closest person to Tony Stark. His Falcon Heavy demonstration was a big ass deal and really gave people that feeling of forward advancement in technology again. And lets not even forget that Tesla has ELON's DNA all over the place. No normal CEO would include a fart app or call different modes of acceleration using Space Balls terminology. I agree that some people may find it childish, but most DO find this car bringing them more enjoyment BECAUSE of Elon's DNA.

So what makes a Tesla special? It's designed by a man who land booster rockets, taking astronauts to mars, can fart on demand while traveling at "plaid" speed with SpaceX thrusters. So what makes your Camry special?

 

[Nocturnal]

The amount of marketing and brand power Tesla will lose without Elon is ENORMOUS! There's a reason why every short seller and Spiegel wants Elon in jail. They know that TSLA will be in sub 200s or maybe even sub 100s if Elon is gone. There are way more reason to buy a Tesla other than the car is great. People want to get behind Elon, which is the closest person to Tony Stark. His Falcon Heavy demonstration was a big ass deal and really gave people that feeling of forward advancement in technology again. And lets not even forget that Tesla has ELON's DNA all over the place. No normal CEO would include a fart app or call different modes of acceleration using Space Balls terminology. I agree that some people may find it childish, but most DO find this car bringing them more enjoyment BECAUSE of Elon's DNA.

So what makes a Tesla special? It's designed by a man who land booster rockets, taking astronauts to mars, can fart on demand while traveling at "plaid" speed with SpaceX thrusters. So what makes your Camry special?

I have to assume that even if he were removed as CEO they would carve out a special post for to keep doing what he does.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

The amount of marketing and brand power Tesla will lose without Elon is ENORMOUS! There's a reason why every short seller and Spiegel wants Elon in jail. They know that TSLA will be in sub 200s or maybe even sub 100s if Elon is gone. There are way more reason to buy a Tesla other than the car is great. People want to get behind Elon, which is the closest person to Tony Stark. His Falcon Heavy demonstration was a big ass deal and really gave people that feeling of forward advancement in technology again. And lets not even forget that Tesla has ELON's DNA all over the place. No normal CEO would include a fart app or call different modes of acceleration using Space Balls terminology. I agree that some people may find it childish, but most DO find this car bringing them more enjoyment BECAUSE of Elon's DNA.

So what makes a Tesla special? It's designed by a man who land booster rockets, taking astronauts to mars, can fart on demand while traveling at "plaid" speed with SpaceX thrusters. So what makes your Camry special?

Of course, even if he were to be removed as CEO, he could stay on in a different role(and would still be largest shareholder).

 

[Singuy]

Of course, even if he were to be removed as CEO, he could stay on in a different role(and would still be largest shareholder).

That's why short sellers are hoping he goes to JAIL for fraud, meaning he will not be able to influence anything Tesla.

 

[neroden]

I think you'll get stopped at the medal detectors.
Random Google results:


Recording Public Meetings and Court Hearings | Digital Media Law Project

However, it may be legal anyway...
Federal Court: Secretly Recording Government Officials Is a First Amendment Right

That ruling is largely about discovering and exposing government corruption. Just don't try it in this context. (If you were dealing with the infamous Texas local judge who dragged lawyers into the hallway and threatened them with beatings, that would be different.)

 

[Bobfitz1]

Yes, reducing costs is certainly a part of it, Tesla is a lot more capex conscious now, there's a backlog for Tesla Energy products AFAIK, and by selling those same solar panels to paying customers they'd generate new capex cash instead of consuming it.

But there's possibly another factor: Nevada is on a very aggressive path to change most of their power grid supply to renewable energies. Right now it's already a pretty high percentage IIRC. So if Tesla waits a few more years their Gigafactory electricity use would be entirely free of fossil fuels.

Yes, since Tesla wants it's capital to fund expansion and R&D, it wouldn't make sense to spend it now and recover that capital over many years through electric utility savings. If Nevada increases incentives for investment in PV in the next few years, Tesla may be able to reduce their cost to cover GF1.

 

[neroden]

The financial media is pretty annoying and I couldn't find the details of the acquisition to calculate arbitrage.

Media says $4.75 per share at $218 million total. What I want to find out is, how many shares of maxwell per tesla shares since it is an all stock transaction. Anyone?

Read the original source material. Bizarrely, it actually is $4.75 per share, in Tesla stock, valued at the VWAP of the five trading days ending two trading days before the tender offer expiration. I.e. if the tender offer expires on April 2 and is not extended further, Tesla is valued at the VWAP of this week's trading. So take your number of MXWL shares, multiply by $4.745, then divide by the VWAP of TSLA this week to find out how many TSLA shares you get. (If TSLA is below a certain price it becomes a fixed number of TSLA shares but it has not dropped to that price.)

This has some interesting and weird arbitrage potential. If the tender offer ends on Tuesday as planned, then buying MXWL is essentially buying TSLA at a discount from the *average* price this week. If TSLA is going up all week, that average may well be below the closing price today.

(i.e. if you're planning to buy TSLA on Friday and TSLA has been going up all week, you'd want to buy MXWL instead)

 

[ZsoZso]

Fisker wants another shot at Tesla with a new Model Y fighter

Amazing how everyone wants to "take aim" at Tesla, but they are just a small player doing nothing novel, everyone will be able to make what they make, yada yada.

What I love about these cowboys is that they are all terrible shots, so when they aim at Tesla they keep missing and keep hitting the dummy ICE makers who just stand around looking dumb

 

[mongo]

So a new and copied die is made from a digital, rather than a physical master? TIA.

Edit: Am thinking about the remarkable similarity between 3 and Y, as though they applied mathematical transformations to enlarge by 10%. That might make it possible to create new digital die files by applying the same mathematical transformations.

Yah, CNC machined from block of steel. You may be thinking of molds.

 

[Tim S]

The amount of marketing and brand power Tesla will lose without Elon is ENORMOUS! There's a reason why every short seller and Spiegel wants Elon in jail. They know that TSLA will be in sub 200s or maybe even sub 100s if Elon is gone. There are way more reason to buy a Tesla other than the car is great. People want to get behind Elon, which is the closest person to Tony Stark. His Falcon Heavy demonstration was a big ass deal and really gave people that feeling of forward advancement in technology again. And lets not even forget that Tesla has ELON's DNA all over the place. No normal CEO would include a fart app or call different modes of acceleration using Space Balls terminology. I agree that some people may find it childish, but most DO find this car bringing them more enjoyment BECAUSE of Elon's DNA.

So what makes a Tesla special? It's designed by a man who land booster rockets, taking astronauts to mars, can fart on demand while traveling at "plaid" speed with SpaceX thrusters. So what makes your Camry special?

I disagreed because I bought my Model 3 because it is BY FAR the best sedan for sale in the world, for me and for the planet. It had nothing to do with Elon's marketing or SpaceX. Tesla will continue selling every car they can make for years to come, with or without Elon. Any hit to the stock price would be temporary.

Don't get me wrong, I love Elon and SpaceX, but Tesla doesn't need them at this point to continue to succeed.

 

[neroden]

My hope, and this is clearly only hopeful speculation on my part, is that they have chosen to do so in an effort to try to hit that small profit for 1st quarter. Although anything will get spun negatively, a small profit still sounds better than a LOSS! It has the advantage of moving up SP500 inclusion as well assuming they remain profitable throughout the year which guidance seemed to indicate would be easier after Q1.

Soooooo, I didn't think it was likely, but....

Suppose Tesla manages to pull off $266.55 million GAAP profit in the first quarter.

They get added to the S&P 500 a quarter earlier. That can have a significant impact, and if they think they have a shot at it, they might try for it.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Of course, even if he were to be removed as CEO, he could stay on in a different role(and would still be largest shareholder).

I’m rather partial to “Keeper of the Schwartz at Tesla”. I have a hunch Elon would be fond of it as well, if he had any title at all!

 

[S3XY]

Considering my very significant investment in TSLA, I have to appeal to any would-be-attending Tesla fan to act responsibly and not give the judge any reason to think less of Tesla.

Thanks in advance.

Sorry, I thought people had seen enough of my postings to know that I was just kidding. I obviously don't recommend that anyone disrupt the court.

 

[ReflexFunds]

The amount of marketing and brand power Tesla will lose without Elon is ENORMOUS! There's a reason why every short seller and Spiegel wants Elon in jail. They know that TSLA will be in sub 200s or maybe even sub 100s if Elon is gone. There are way more reason to buy a Tesla other than the car is great. People want to get behind Elon, which is the closest person to Tony Stark. His Falcon Heavy demonstration was a big ass deal and really gave people that feeling of forward advancement in technology again. And lets not even forget that Tesla has ELON's DNA all over the place. No normal CEO would include a fart app or call different modes of acceleration using Space Balls terminology. I agree that some people may find it childish, but most DO find this car bringing them more enjoyment BECAUSE of Elon's DNA.

So what makes a Tesla special? It's designed by a man who land booster rockets, taking astronauts to mars, can fart on demand while traveling at "plaid" speed with SpaceX thrusters. So what makes your Camry special?

Yet, despite all of that, Tesla is priced at a massive discount to its fundamentals. There is no obvious “Elon premium” in the stock price, there is just a company with hard assets, real IP and huge competitive advantages priced at a huge discount.

Teslas are made with Elon’s DNA, nothing can change that. And Elon not being CEO does not mean he will not continue the same engineering and have the same product ideas he spends the vast majority of his time working on anyway. I expect he would also still continue the same Tesla Twitter marketing.

To try to panic people that TSLA will be priced sub 100 without Elon as CEO is just supporting the FUDsters. In reality, very little is likely to change and Elon is likely to continue pulling the strings.