Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

Wonder if Optimus will change this calculus?

Probably not given the current strength and speed specs.... other than maybe the same sort of general "move not phenomenally heavy stuff around a warehouse or onto/off of trucks" type work lots of other employers might want them for. They won't be strong or fast enough for combat (somewhat on purpose, that).

 

[capster]

WSJ has been pro-Elon and pro-Tesla for some time now, so this article is a bit of a head scratcher. I would have expected something like this from WaPo or NYT which are both virulently anti-Elon and anti-Tesla. I guess it just goes to show you can't trust any journalists, even ones you thought were friendly before.

Wait. What? I read the WSJ and I would say by and large it still carries the water of Oil & (legacy)Auto along with that of the Street’s manips.

 

[Cosmacelf]

WSJ has been pro-Elon and pro-Tesla for some time now, so this article is a bit of a head scratcher. I would have expected something like this from WaPo or NYT which are both virulently anti-Elon and anti-Tesla. I guess it just goes to show you can't trust any journalists, even ones you thought were friendly before.

It has??? Not the articles I’ve read. They are generally anti-Tesla.

 

[Discoducky]

It has??? Not the articles I’ve read. They are generally anti-Tesla.

Dan is the good stuff, other WSJ authors not so much....

Dan Neil (journalist) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Cosmacelf]

Just your ordinary Tesla meet up. And then things got weird.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Made my day to see this. Elon specifically targeting fossil fuels. No doubt the timing influenced by Ukraine, but was always essential to stop the rise and rise of the Keeling Curve.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505791520024186882

 

[SOULPEDL]

Just your ordinary Tesla meet up. And then things got weird.

It's worth pointing out that the flying Tesla STILL did not flip over.

I used to jump a junker car on the large dips out here in Az as a kid, so I get the excitement. But that was 3x lift!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Just your ordinary Tesla meet up. And then things got weird.

Safety Score in the crapper.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Made my day to see this. Elon specifically targeting fossil fuels. No doubt the timing influenced by Ukraine, but was always essential to stop the rise and rise of the Keeling Curve.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505791520024186882

Elon's reply to this question about Master Plan Part 3 is really important. Let's make it part of the permanent record here at TMC:

Doctor Jack on Twitter: "Can’t wait to hear #TSLA’s master plan 3. The optionality, verticality, & exponentials @elonmusk & team can take the company is truly mind boggling at this point. All for the greater good of humanity. Why would anyone not invest in this once in a lifetime company!? " / Twitter​

​

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@DoctorJack16 Main Tesla subjects will be scaling to extreme size, which is needed to shift humanity away from fossil fuels, and AI. But I will also include sections about SpaceX, Tesla and The Boring Company." / Twitter​

I'm even more excited now about the upcoming Master Plan Part 3 because Elon hints at these issues:

1. Tesla EV production expansion WILL NOT slow down. There has been lingering doubt in the past among the cognoscenti whether Tesla even NEEDS to move into the lower price range market, that they would leave that to other, established automakers. Clearly, that is not happening fast enough, existing automakers are too compromised by their need to continue ICE product sales, plus Elon for the first time uses the phrase "extreme size". Does this discard an arbitary production target of 20M/yr by 2030 for Tesla? Perhaps shift to a "%EV" metric for the goal, with Tesla moving the market?
2. SpaceX and The Boring Company may be rolled together with Tesla in Elon's holding company X.com as many of us have suspected. I expect that Tesla remains a separate company, but Elon's ownership stake moves to the new entity (hopefully this solves the "stock options dip" issue for Elon's 2018 CEO comp. plan)
3. Clearly, there will be business relationships and a product line between Tesla and the "Muskonomy":
   1. SpaceX: we'll see Starlink terminals at all Superchargers, and new products like a Mars Rover (Cybertruck), and eventually Bots-on-Mars (Optimus' + AI)
   2. The Boring Company: tunnel transit projects will need EVs, and FSD software to operate those shuttles. Vegas, Miami, San Antonio, are all already in the works. Basically any large city with an international airport is in the TAM. Then there's utility tunnels.... (underground power lines in fire-prone regions, for example)
   3. There may not be specific projects mentioned, but there WILL be a clear framework for including other Musk projects (like Neuralink) into this X.com ecosystem. The advantages at scale are just too hard to ignore once an specific technology is mature enough for deployment
   4. I don't think Elon gets into aviation with this Master Plan because bty tech needs about 10 yrs to mature enough to make regional electric jets feasible, but clearly the X.com framework is key

Anything else? I can't wait for Master Plan - Part 3.

Ceres!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Elon's reply to this question about Master Plan Part 3 is really important. Let's make it part of the permanent record here at TMC:

Doctor Jack on Twitter: "Can’t wait to hear #TSLA’s master plan 3. The optionality, verticality, & exponentials @elonmusk & team can take the company is truly mind boggling at this point. All for the greater good of humanity. Why would anyone not invest in this once in a lifetime company!? " / Twitter​

​

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@DoctorJack16 Main Tesla subjects will be scaling to extreme size, which is needed to shift humanity away from fossil fuels, and AI. But I will also include sections about SpaceX, Tesla and The Boring Company." / Twitter​

I'm even more excited now about the upcoming Master Plan Part 3 because Elon hints at these issues:

1. Tesla EV production expansion WILL NOT slow down. There has been lingering doubt in the past among the cognoscenti whether Tesla even NEEDS to move into the lower price range market, that they would leave that to other, established automakers. Clearly, that is not happening fast enough, existing automakers are too compromised by their need to continue ICE product sales, plus Elon for the first time uses the phrase "extreme size". Does this discard an arbitary production target of 20M/yr by 2030 for Tesla? Perhaps shift to a "%EV" metric for the goal, with Tesla moving the market?
2. SpaceX and The Boring Company may be rolled together with Tesla in Elon's holding company X.com as many of us have suspected. I expect that Tesla remains a separate company, but Elon's ownership stake moves to the new entity (hopefully this solves the "stock options dip" issue for Elon's 2018 CEO comp. plan)
3. Clearly, there will be business relationships and a product line between Tesla and the "Muskonomy":
   1. SpaceX: we'll see Starlink terminals at all Superchargers, and new products like a Mars Rover (Cybertruck), and eventually Bots-on-Mars (Optimus' + AI)
   2. The Boring Company: tunnel transit projects will need EVs, and FSD software to operate those shuttles. Vegas, Miami, San Antonio, are all already in the works. Basically any large city with an international airport is in the TAM. Then there's utility tunnels.... (underground power lines in fire-prone regions, for example)
   3. There may not be specific projects mentioned, but there WILL be a clear framework for including other Musk projects (like Neuralink) into this X.com ecosystem. The advantages at scale are just too hard to ignore once an specific technology is mature enough for deployment
   4. I don't think Elon gets into aviation with this Master Plan because bty tech needs about 10 yrs to mature enough to make regional electric jets feasible, but clearly the X.com framework is key

Anything else? I can't wait for Master Plan - Part 3.

Ceres!

The details of "extreme scaling" are what interest me. Elon must be working on an "outer loop" of accelerated factory (both auto and battery) construction. Another level of “machine that builds the machine …". A von Neumann factory of sorts. Robots that build copies of themselves. (I’ve always been surprised that Tesla or SpaceX haven't targeted additive manufacturing for the next level of disruptive acceleration.)

I also agree with @Carl Raymond that the war has emphasized the other evil of fossil fuels beyond climate damage - international economic extortion.

 

[ThisStockGood]

SMR has uploaded a video with his bear and weighted average PTs. It's fun fun fun.

Spoiler: His 2031 price targets

Bear: USD 11,476. Weighted average: USD 33,659.

 

[hobbes]

Once Giga Berlin model Y deliveries begin in EU is there going to be a price reduction?
If Model Y has no tariffs and taxes, how would it's price compare to Model 3 which will have tariffs/taxes?

Looks to me like Tesla´s strategy right now is to monetize the strong demand to keep waiting times in check. They just raised prices. And the gradual ramp up of Berlin and Austin won´t satisfy demand fast enough.

EDIT: o.k. late to the party

 

[hobbes]

Elon officially on his way to Giga Berlin opening:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505789367897448448

 

[Christine69420]

Some rumours from the comments section of Jeff's latest video:

Richard Cogbill

I had my home A/C unit checked out last week and the A/C guy told me to that his son who is a production engineer started working at Tesla in Oct. Says there is still an army of workers installing the assembly lines for the Model 3 and cyber truck.

He says he was like most people, totally ignorant about EVs till after his son graduated college last year with a degree in industrial engineering and landed a job with Tesla. The AC guy says he plans to retire in a few years, but now wants a cyber truck. He said he almost fainted when his son told him how long the waiting list was for cyber truck, but he's now on the list anyway and will look forward to getting his truck by the time he retires.

He also told me his son says the EV semi truck assembly line will be the shortest and easiest to install and will take very little of the factory space. They already have regular visits from production and industrial design engineering teams from the Reno factory.

Tesla has a waiting list of Tesla Freemont workers who want to transfer to Texas, but they are on staggered transfer so as not to break the production efficiency and targets in Freemont. I read an article in the paper several months ago that some Tesla Cali employees were visiting Austin and surrounding areas to shop for homes months before their transfer as the home prices have been going up in the Austin market a long time before Tesla even made their announcement of considering putting a plant here.

Wow! I got a lot of info out of my A/C guy about the Austin Giga factory while he spent 40 mins checking over my A/C system.

The video is found here:

 

[Artful Dodger]

NASDAQ:TSLA
6:15 AM EDT
913.00 +7.61 (+0.84%)

 

[cusetownusa]

Stamp that with one huge CAVEAT EMPTOR

Even if it shows up in print on the Tesla website I am going to be skeptical.

I agree. I thought about adding induction wheels to my Y order but no way I’m taking that risk. Model Y is up $9,000 since I ordered mine. At this point I just want my car.

 

[2daMoon]

Safety Score in the crapper.

FSF update complete! (Full Self Flying)

 

[Knightshade]

[*]SpaceX: we'll see Starlink terminals at all Superchargers

This continues to make 0 sense and not even be physically possible for "all" chargers (likely not even "most" right now)

Certainly they'll be at SOME in more remote areas... But the chargers in dense or urban areas that already have lots of high speed internet options would be a terrible use case for Starlink, as Elon himself has repeatedly pointed out., (or simply an impossible due to line of sight limits because many charger locations have trees, buildings, or other things in most directions- SL requires pretty broad/clear visibility to work well- a cone of about 100 degrees, with a minimum clear elevation of 25 degrees above the horizon on up)

Why do people keep not believing Elon when he explicitly tells them the purpose of Starlink, including what it is and what it is not?

 

[Ipcress]

Tesla did something very different than any other manufacturing company...
Tesla was the first foreign company to have a wholly self owned car factory versus a joint venture on China.
To your last point, US employees can brain drain/ sneaker net IP just as well as the Chinese, and they are. Plus, Tesla used offshore suppliers for Fremont.

To that last point--the look and feel of Rivian's OS is pure Tesla. Or was it Lucid?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nickel futures, which have nothing to do with Tesla's price for nickel, are down 65% in a week or so. No follow up articles yet on how cheap that'll make EV production.

Nickel price falls 15% to hit new limit down on London Metal Exchange

Nickel prices resumed their freefall on Monday, with the benchmark three-month contract falling 15% to hit another new trading limit.

www.cnbc.com