Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

I think they are concerned that 2% of your portfolio is allocated ineffectively.

The other 2% is in cash so it is definitely allocated ineffectively.....

 

[15Peter20]

The other 2% is in cash so it is definitely allocated ineffectively.....

Dry powder right?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Dry powder right?

Dry powder....no more couches to shake....that's it.

 

[Knightshade]

BTW since there's often Starlink discussion here- just got an email from them to inform me the price of the HW is going up $50 for existing reservation holders, and $100 for everyone else--- and monthly service is going up $10/mo-- In the case of both increases inflation is cited as the cause.

 

[Mengy]

BTW since there's often Starlink discussion here- just got an email from them to inform me the price of the HW is going up $50 for existing reservation holders, and $100 for everyone else--- and monthly service is going up $10/mo-- In the case of both increases inflation is cited as the cause.

Yep, I just got this tonight, I've had Starlink for the past half year. I wonder if this is to cover all the free Starlink units given to Ukraine?

 

[Ogre]

Yep, I just got this tonight, I've had Starlink for the past half year. I wonder if this is to cover all the free Starlink units given to Ukraine?

Yeah, the rate for those units goes up 10% per month as well.

 

[heltok]

As has been mentioned before, Elon states teslas growth rate is 70-80% a year and may be even faster than that in the future.

My current guesstimates target tesla's previous stated goal of 20M vehicles produced annually by 2030, but we may soon discover our models will need to be revised up.

As a reference point I guessed at tesla's annual production and growth rate using a flat quarterly growth rate each year. I lowered the quarterly growth rate arbitrarily each year to get close to the 20m vehicles produced by 2030:

	annualized (in thousands)	annualized growth rate	quarter to quarter growth rate
2021	929		28%
2022	1,711	84%	14%
2023	2,890	69%	14%
2024	4,881	69%	14%
2025	7,682	57%	11%
2026	10,856	41%	8%
2027	13,735	27%	5%
2028	15,896	16%	3%
2029	17,891	13%	3%
2030	20,137	13%	3%
2031	22,111	10%	2%
2032	23,934	8%	2%
2033	25,907	8%	2%
2034	28,043	8%	2%
2035	30,354	8%	2%

(2021's quarter to quarter growth rate shown is q3 to q4. However q1 had a growth rate of just over 14%)

Yeah, imo not enough discussion around on this:

Elon: ”We are growing at 70-80% per year on average and maybe even faster than that in the future”.
8:00 here

Start watching a 3 mins earlier to get context.

Then the question is, when is the future? 2022? Or 2023? Or even later?

Elon is saying that they will chip constrained this year, battery constrained the next year. How many batteries will they get in 2023? Tesla said on battery day that they will be making 100GWh/year rate in 2022. So more than that in 2023 right? But let’s be conservative and just assume 100GWh for 2023… CATL should have added a lot of LFP by then, Panasonic and LG not sleeping either. Blade batteries should eventually offset some of the batteries going to storage. Let’s assume the suppliers match Tesla’s growth for a total additional 200GWh in 2023. 70kWh/car -> 3M additional cars. Imo these are conservative figures.

So if they are gonna be battery constrained in 2023, imo that implies A LOT OF CARS! And then the ”faster than 80%/year in the future” starts to make more sense.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Yeah, imo not enough discussion around on this:

Elon: ”We are growing at 70-80% per year on average and maybe even faster than that in the future”.
8:00 here

Start watching a 3 mins earlier to get context.

Then the question is, when is the future? 2022? Or 2023? Or even later?

Elon is saying that they will chip constrained this year, battery constrained the next year. How many batteries will they get in 2023? Tesla said on battery day that they will be making 100GWh/year rate in 2022. So more than that in 2023 right? But let’s be conservative and just assume 100GWh for 2023… CATL should have added a lot of LFP by then, Panasonic and LG not sleeping either. Blade batteries should eventually offset some of the batteries going to storage. Let’s assume the suppliers match Tesla’s growth for a total additional 200GWh in 2023. 70kWh/car -> 3M additional cars. Imo these are conservative figures.

So if they are gonna be battery constrained in 2023, imo that implies A LOT OF CARS! And then the ”faster than 80%/year in the future” starts to make more sense.

Great Elon video.

"300 terawatt hours needed to transition to a sustainable energy future". That's Tesla's bottom line. That's the massive scale Elon will be aiming for in Masterplan 3. All products depend on ramping battery supply.

 

[UncaNed]

Oh Jesus, Elon said growing at 80%/year, expects more than that in the future. I think his master plan part 3 being about mass scale production(which was also said during this Q/A) will increase Tesla's prior 50% yoy guidance.

I thought he said 80% referring specifically to batteries, didn't he?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Dry powder....no more couches to shake....that's it.

me too

 

[UncaNed]

So, I had to look at the transcript to actually try to figure out what are GJs main points and here they are:

1. Running the Germany paint shop on generators (speculation?)
2. Does not have permits to make cars in Germany (objectively false)
3. Market share is collapsing (objectively false)
4. Global deliveries could be flat to down in the March quarter (objectively false with Jan and Feb numbers)
5. Europe deliveries peaked in Q4 2021 and will be down in Q1 (since we don't have the Q1 2022 numbers, time will tell in about a month)

It is absolutely ridiculous that this person gets to say these things, on a regular and recurring basis, to a worldwide audience and get paid for it.

Yeah, I just don't get it. It's not like anyone ever spreads his FUD or talks about him on any sort of social media or forums for free or anything...

 

[JustSaying]

Elon's speech to crowd:

That damn Sun is so powerful...

 

[Discoducky]

Great Elon video.

"300 terawatt hours needed to transition to a sustainable energy future". That's Tesla's bottom line. That's the massive scale Elon will be aiming for in Masterplan 3. All products depend on ramping battery supply.

That number is so hard to comprehend.

Anyone have a sense of how to get there?

 

[lafrisbee]

OK .
This is the very best youtube video on what the German Public probably thinks/knows about Tesla.
It is "just" a news segment by German TV..done in English(?).
The lowest BS level.. not pro not con...just the German Perspective.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

That number is so hard to comprehend.

Anyone have a sense of how to get there?

I believe someone mentioned one of Tesla's targets, 3TWh is going to take raw materials equivalent to one Great Pyramid of Giza. They were comparing it to the 100 pyramids used each year by the steel industry.

So we'll basically need to take the amount of raw materials the steel industry uses in 1 yr and turn it into batteries. Easy peasy. Certainly easier than going to the Moon or killing off tens of millions of humans in a drawn out world war.

Star Trek times are just around the corner. What color jumpsuit you want?

 

[Discoducky]

Star Trek times are just around the corner. What color jumpsuit you want?

Not red!

 

[Prunesquallor]

That number is so hard to comprehend.

Anyone have a sense of how to get there?

There have always been ideas about how to incorporate (low efficiency) energy storage components into common construction materials (concrete, metal, etc) thus enabling distributed energy storage in buildings and roads for example. The natural massive scale of material production would offset the low efficiency.

 

[JRP3]

energy storage in buildings and roads for example.

Every pothole exposes high voltage, no thanks.

 

[mars_or_bust]

2 million dollars worth of TSLA just purchased by the greatest stock picker in the world ;-)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506442526995140610

 

[Chunky Jr.]

a 12.8 MWh Megapack goes for $6.8M, which is about $0.53 per Wh. If Tesla was no longer battery constrained and could do 250 GWh of energy storage a year, that's more than $125B in annual revenue. An ample supply of batteries will unlock an insane amount of growth.