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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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That only explains Tue-Thu. We dropped 11% the day after the best earnings in history, and 3 days before Elon's sales.

BTW, a simple micro-economics model says that extracting $4.0B in capital from TSLA stock should result in an equilbrium SP decrease of $4.60 (yeah, not $120 or more per share).

Elon sold ~3.6 M shares on Tuesday. Volume was ~45 M, or about 20 M shares above average. This drop was about 88% attributable to short/panic selling, and about 12% to Elon's sales.

Long term, just more stories to tell our kidz.
But he had already put in the offer to Buy Twitter, and someone knew he was going to be selling. Just because we don't have the info, doesn't mean some dirty rats don't know....
 
Since macros are flat for the week, TSLA will now commence to return to $980 where it was 5 days ago.

Right?

5dc15a58073122dfbb1db83934e49fdc.jpg
 
I wonder why Elon didn't sell some of his SpaceX holdings. I'm sure there would be eager buyers for that and he wouldn't have to sell as much TSLA, if any.
How do you know he didnt? They aren't public so - to my knowledge - there are no reporting requirements on him. He could sell every share he has and not report anything.
 
@Max Plaid said: I think the issue here isn't the selling, but rather the mechanism and frequency... why crash the SP when this could have been facilitated though the banks or dark pools?

🙄

1. Elon wasn’t sitting on the toilet pushing the sell button on his phone APP all day.
2. Someone did it for him and Elon paid for them to do it.
3. Someone followed his instructions how to do it - ie., get it done asap.
4. That someone has a big mouth and told all their friends, who told all their friends, who all then executed a bunch of plays in conjunction with the sales so as to make as much money as possible for themselves.
5. All those people are laughing at us while sipping champagne and eating caviar.

I’ll give you one guess who those people work for.
 
I think the issue here isn't the selling, but rather the mechanism and frequency... why crash the SP when this could have been facilitated though the banks or dark pools?

How is that going to help retain all the new hires at the two new Gigafactories and provide them with an economic reason to stick around a number of years and make a career of it? He wants the factories to hit the ground running and keep running long into the future. Optimus will not be ready in time to solve labor challenges at these huge new factories in the medium term.

Elon is a "big picture" kind of guy, and he likes to accomplish multiple things with a single stroke and move onto bigger things. He knows any impact to share price will be transitory in nature. He's not the kind of guy to tiptoe around while he sells his shares in dark, secret shadows to get every last dollar out of the transaction for himself and screw over his loyal employees. Open public markets exist for a reason and the normal ebb and flow of the price is as natural as the supply and demand of the shares.

Be aware that when selling billions of dollars worth using dark pools it is necessary to reduce the price substantially in order to move that much stock but that is not reflected in the "official" share price. I think Elon is a straight-forward guy and figures the open public markets exist for a reason, they should function as intended. It's actually a subversion of open markets to do large transactions off the books and away from the very markets that you and I have to use.

One additional note: I would not be surprised to see one last "hurrah" attempt by those who are disappointed Elon's selling has ended to keep the share price down. They might figure this will send a powerful message that it's the actual company that is weak, not just a temporary downdraft caused by Elon needing to raise billions in cash and de-risk his Twitter purchase going forward. Any weak hands still holding a portion of their stake could become unnerved and give up their shares.

This could be difficult to pull off if there is unprecedented buying pressure but don't for a minute think they wouldn't try as it really would send a powerful, even if false, message. They don't want this downdraft to be any more temporary than absolutely necessary! Stay strong!
 
I wonder why Elon didn't sell some of his SpaceX holdings. I'm sure there would be eager buyers for that and he wouldn't have to sell as much TSLA, if any.
As I recall, several months ago Elon was less than enthusiastic about SpaceX financials. They are building out Starlink along with Starship and the associated launch infrastructure at the Cape and Boca Chica. He may see the need for infusing some of his holdings back into the company.
 
How is that going to help retain all the new hires at the two new Gigafactories and provide them with an economic reason to stick around a number of years and make a career of it? He wants the factories to hit the ground running and keep running long into the future. Optimus will not be ready in time to solve labor challenges at these huge new factories in the medium term.

Elon is a "big picture" kind of guy, and he likes to accomplish multiple things with a single stroke and move onto bigger things. He knows any impact to share price will be transitory in nature. He's not the kind of guy to tiptoe around while he sells his shares in dark, secret shadows to get every last dollar out of the transaction for himself and screw over his loyal employees. Open public markets exist for a reason and the normal ebb and flow of the price is as natural as the supply and demand of the shares.

Be aware that when selling billions of dollars worth using dark pools it is necessary to reduce the price substantially in order to move that much stock but that is not reflected in the "official" share price. I think Elon is a straight-forward guy and figures the open public markets exist for a reason, they should function as intended. It's actually a subversion of open markets to do large transactions off the books and away from the very markets that you and I have to use.

One additional note: I would not be surprised to see one last "hurrah" attempt by those who are disappointed Elon's selling has ended to keep the share price down. They might figure this will send a powerful message that it's the actual company that is weak, not just a temporary downdraft caused by Elon needing to raise billions in cash and de-risk his Twitter purchase going forward. Any weak hands still holding a portion of their stake could become unnerved and give up their shares.

This could be difficult to pull off if there is unprecedented buying pressure but don't for a minute think they wouldn't try as it really would send a powerful, even if false, message. They don't want this downdraft to be any more temporary than absolutely necessary! Stay strong!
He has also on many occasions spoke of just making a decision and seeing if it was right. This is his approach to engineering and is likely his approach to business as well. He isn't going to mull over options on how to do something and be caught in "analysis paralysis". There is a lot to be said for this approach and has made him very successful in his engineering leadership (something that is lacking in much of the engineering world due to pressure from the business side). I know this as I've been in aerospace engineering for 16 yrs and see it every day. This is what gives him the ability to leverage his brilliant engineering approach into brilliant business management. This sale was likely that same approach and we'll see how it turns out but I do see it as a positive for the overall company due to many reasons like what was outlined for employee benefits. I don't know about you guys but I wish I was in the position to have the stock options that Tesla or SpaceX employees have.
 
My investment question is related to the difference between a 9 to 1 dividend vs a 19 to 1 dividend or more?

Specifically, would the 20x expansion of shares minimize the SP swings when the next whale has a selling plan? Or is it only % that matters and makes no difference?

Seems to me it is more difficult to generate large waves in a much larger pond. Comments?

Shares only have "granularity" in terms of the cost of a single share when looked at from a very small-time retail player with miniscule financial resources. This is the reason often provided for splitting the stock. As soon as you move up the scale, not even to the "whale" level, the share price has no significant granularity. It is inconsequential. A pond filled with more smaller shares makes the same kind of waves as a pond filled with fewer, larger shares. It's a big pond.
 
WuWa is conveying this little short from Giga Shanghai - filmed by user Sunshine:


It's nice to see the factory again - and with visible activity.

Filmed on April 27th.

WuWa wrote:

This video comes from a creator named "Sunshine" on China's Jitterbug, and with his permission, his video can be shown on my YouTube, thanks to him! He lives in Mud City in Lingang, about 5 km from the Tesla factory in Shanghai, where he is cooped up at home and can't leave his house due to the city's shutdown. When he has time he goes to the roof of his accommodation and flies a drone. This video shows exactly the Tesla factory in Shanghai under the epidemic, and according to the filmmaker, the entire flight is 10 kilometers round trip. This was filmed on April 27th. We see from the video that there are vehicles circulating in the factory, although infrequently, but it proves that the factory is running. Now what we want to know is that the factory has hit the logistics and parts factory to fully resume work a week after the inventory is used up? But from the reality of the epidemic blockade, Shanghai is not unblocked and most of the highway is still under control. For Tesla, the security of parts supply may be an urgent issue now. We look forward to the early unblocking of Shanghai and the return to normalcy.
 
Hopefully y’all stacked em deep and stacked em cheap during this little sale!
😎

Deep enough into leaps to give me that really queasy feeling over the past few days. Those are always the best trades though, from my experience. The ones I lose money on are when I feel good about it. (often diversifying away from Tesla with profits and regretting it)