Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Max Plaid]

I know nothing, bugger-all, but I disagree completely with the folks claiming this $TSLA dump is from Elon selling stock, at least not for Twitter acquisition - he did have some other options to exercise still, right, but quite some still before expiry

Apply first principles:
- Twitter deal isn't closing until later in the year, why sell stock now?
- Given the long lead time, if stock was sold, it would be done gradually, over a long period, so as not to kill the price
- Absolutely no reason to sell on the open market, plenty of time to broker some dark pool type of deals

Can anyone give a compelling reason why Elon would be selling now?

I think this is a coordinated short-bear attack, which is supported by the stock price stabilising while the uptick rule was in place

So much for logic... can't say I'm impressed at all, makes zero sense to me, no need to dump shares like that on open market

 

[Gigapress]

Elon's Asperger's pretty much means that communication is never going to be Elon's strong suit -- it requires empathy. That doesn't mean he can't be a great leader, but he has to work around his deficiencies.

I'm not sure why you think Elon lacks empathy. That's an unfortunate stigma associated with Asperger's syndrome. Empathy motivated him to send Starlink terminals to Ukraine- what have you done to alleviate the suffering of the Ukranian people?

People on the autism spectrum usually have low empathy but also a strong drive for justice. And they’re usually much more likely than neurotypicals to speak their minds in an unfiltered and socially risky fashion when they think something is wrong.

It is a spectrum though…many autistics feel empathy but it isn’t expressed well because they struggle to accurately recognize how others are feeling in the first place and they struggle with verbal and nonverbal communication.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Our old fact checking friend sums it up nicely…

 

[Bet TSLA]

Why don't you watch the video I just posted (one of several on the subject). He talks a lot about communication within his companies, an important subject that he clearly cares about.

I've watched it before. Why don't you defend your false generalizations if you actually think they have any merit?

 

[Singuy]

So much for logic... can't say I'm impressed at all, makes zero sense to me, no need to dump shares like that on open market

Well I did say that Elon dumps his shares using about zero strategy as shown with the 10% batch he sold.

I would say that his share dump being this fast was terrible for the stock price but he is now done and the overhang is gone. If he were to sell on the open market slowly and randomly, then we just randomly get Form 4s with no end in sight. Now he can actually talk about the end the minute the form 4s are out so we can move on.

 

[Singuy]

Our old fact checking friend sums it up nicely…


View attachment 798702

macro have been recovering all night. Asia stock exchange is kicking butt which helps a lot. Also the AH selling of Amazon was excessive and seem planned trying to bring the QQQ down for the bull trap. Lets hope we break QQQ's resistance of 329 tomorrow and bounce off major support we hit a month prior.

 

[JustMe]

Jack Nicholson promoting green hydrogen-powered cars

….44 years ago

 

[oneday]

Forgive my naivety. I am guessing X holdings has a pretty high cash balance at this point and/or will soon.

Since this Twitter deal won’t go through for a few months, can X Holdings invest that cash balance into a company that has a high likelihood of appreciating over the coming months?

Since there are no objections, I hereby call this meeting of the board of X holdings to order.

All those in favor of purchasing no more than 4.99% of the outstanding shares of $TSLA, say Aye.

 

[EVMeister]

We got much-needed clarity on the selling TSLA to fund the blue bird situation. And now the bickering is worse than ever! I'm disappointed in you guys.

 

[Criscmt]

I do not think this poster is right, the mistake being the already pledged shares. The numbers are as of August 2021 and that is no longer the case. (88 million in his spreadsheet)

Based on some previous disclosures / news, Elon had a margin loan of 1 Billion, mostly for funding his lifestyle, investments in other ventuers, and also some charity he was doing undercover. This is from the time Tesla was trading at 200-300 pre-split.

Just to reconcile that math, at 250 $ per share pre split, or $50 per share post split price, 88 million shares would be worth $4.4 Billion about enough to back stop 1 Billion at a ~20% LTV. Now these shares once pledged don't automatically come off pledge.

I firmly believe this agreement has been terminated after Elon sold shares, sold off his homes, etc and there are no encumbered / pledged shares at this point. Even if there is anything minimal left, I am sure that's getting rolled into the new deal.

Just more scaremongering as they smell weakness.

Good point, I didn't notice that the data was from Aug-2021, prior to Elon's sale last Q4. Thanks!

 

[ThisStockGood]

TL0 from Frankfurt: 848 EUR = $889 right now (up 1.3 %).

 

[30seconds]

I wish that this Twitter thing was done and in the past, but I’m afraid it will be an impact on Tesla stock price in multiple ways

1. Likely more stock sales to complete the merger. This isn’t a 10% down to buy the house kind of deal. That is not the way Wall St works. Given magnitude of $B needed he can’t just wait until the day the deal is over to sell, he will likely need to sell a week or so before merger close.

2. He has fully out Tesla into the political realm. Going to be much easier for F, GM, BMW, whoever to go after Tesla based on public perceptions of Elon.

I still expect the company to grow at 50% a year and post spectacular profits, but also expect a smaller multiple based on the increase political risk the company is now in.

 

[cricketman]

Well I was wrong, I thought Elon would fund these via loans against his Tesla stock

Still whatever, in the stock market it is better to be decisive than right! Still very happy to have picked up some cheap shares.

At the end of the day, all this is noise and only important if someone is thinking of buying or selling. I think I am going to lock up my shares now for a few years and put some alerts on if the share price goes above or below certain amounts.

I am getting a little tired of following Tesla news every day for 1-2 hours per day. Think I am going to limit it to the Quarterly calls and the odd rainy Sunday YouTube blast

 

[lascavarian]

Does this comment really add to the discussion?



Quality of conversation is pretty low in general at the moment but you've managed to make a post which is markedly the worst.

My comment would be that it is clever and addresses the intentionally insulting question of the original poster relating to 2 things related to de-risking. This response keyed off the ”2 things” in a clever way. Nicely done really.

”Disagree” is a blunt and hurtful tool that is poorly crafted. Better to simply judge whether your time is worth the strength of your “disagree” and if it is then post your reason for the benefit of all.

YMMV of course. It is important we care about the quality of the conversation and try avoid practices that only add heat without adding understanding IMO.

 

[NooB_cat]

Well nice little $50 instant jump up there as soon as pre-market opened (from after hours price).... missed my chance to jump in for some nice sale buying as I reached my risk limit, but still this is very satisfying to see and hoping for some strength in TSLA today on the good news and confirmation from Elon that his planned sale of shares is over with.
Happy Friday everyone, enjoy your days

 

[printf42]

I wish that this Twitter thing was done and in the past, but I’m afraid it will be an impact on Tesla stock price in multiple ways

1. Likely more stock sales to complete the merger. This isn’t a 10% down to buy the house kind of deal. That is not the way Wall St works. Given magnitude of $B needed he can’t just wait until the day the deal is over to sell, he will likely need to sell a week or so before merger close.

2. He has fully out Tesla into the political realm. Going to be much easier for F, GM, BMW, whoever to go after Tesla based on public perceptions of Elon.

I still expect the company to grow at 50% a year and post spectacular profits, but also expect a smaller multiple based on the increase political risk the company is now in.

Elon clearly stated no more plan to sell, which would include any need to sell at the deal closure, unless you think Elon is a liar…

I think today is the conclusion of any impact this Twitter deal could have on TSLA, Elon done selling, no more speculation and uncertainty, clean cut(though a bit painful for my bull spreads).

For people who think Twitter under Elon might turn away some Tesla buyers, do you seriously think when they chose their last car, they carefully weighted political views from CEO of Toyota vs. Subaru? Come on, as long as the political view won’t bankrupt the company, and render my warranty useless, I couldn’t care less…

Now that the Twitter chapter is over, where is my Master Plan Part III?

 

[Favguy]

People on the autism spectrum usually have low empathy but also a strong drive for justice. And they’re usually much more likely than neurotypicals to speak their minds in an unfiltered and socially risky fashion when they think something is wrong.

It is a spectrum though…many autistics feel empathy but it isn’t expressed well because they struggle to accurately recognize how others are feeling in the first place and they struggle with verbal and nonverbal communication.

As someone on the spectrum, let me give you my own take on this. I personally lack the normal range of emotions that normal people have. In fact strong displays of emotion by those close to me, such as grief, have the effect of making me want to run away, rather than console as others would. I also tend to say things that may be very true, but are considered by normal people offensive or inappropriate for a given situation. The result is I often come across as cold, arrogant, and/or obnoxious & struggle to maintain friendships.

The flipside though is I will always try to do what I think is the right thing, despite the fact I may actually not really care about it emotionally. I also exhibit an extreme level of loyalty and helpfulness to the few close friends that I do have.

As a high functioning individual on the spectrum, I fake, mostly successfully, body language to approximate how one should behave non verbally, but it's interesting that my wife has noted that since retirement from paid work, (an envioron where I'd need to be "normal" to be successful) I've become far more "eccentric and/or "weird".

Sorry if that was a little long winded, but the point I'm trying to make is Elon is unlikely to change his behavior and I suspect now he's reached the level of success he has, I'd expect he's going to become even more odd and unpredictable in the eyes of most "normals". I suspect the twitter thing is only going to cause more consternation going forward and see a very bumpy road ahead.

So HODL for dear life! It might just all work out great. (If Putin doesn't end up causing a Nuclear Winter!)

 

[JoRoMo]

Elon clearly stated no more plan to sell, which would include any need to sell at the deal closure, unless you think Elon is a liar…

I do not plan to sell my house.

If I still do in a couple of years, does that make me a liar?

Current plans do not always dictate future actions, if it turns out he actually needs to sell a bit more I think it will still be wrongful to call him a liar.

 

[Max Plaid]

I do not plan to sell my house.

If I still do in a couple of years, does that make me a liar?

Current plans do not always dictate future actions, if it turns out he actually needs to sell a bit more I think it will still be wrongful to call him a liar.

I think the issue here isn't the selling, but rather the mechanism and frequency... why crash the SP when this could have been facilitated though the banks or dark pools?

 

[Atomsla]

I think the issue here isn't the selling, but rather the mechanism and frequency... why crash the SP when this could have been facilitated though the banks or dark pools?

My guess is that anything beyond telling someone to sell enough stock to get the amount of money he needs is an additional complication he doesnt want to invest time in, and therefore not worth the hassle. Share price will recover from a drop like this, I don't see why that would concern Elon or why he should care about it. Especially after him warning a bunch of times that the stock will be a volatile one.