Thought the minutes were released but nope, just a rally into the minutes. That's weird.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
After about a year of waiting, I've done my part for Q2 earnings. And boy, did it leave me with a full-time grin!
I got one of those minimalistic EVs (in addition to the 2 Teslas in the garage, poor thing has to stay outside), although it is from Mitsubishi:
Been running for over 10 years now, range is very small (just a city runabout), but it is perfectly functional for local errands, shopping etc.
Motor Mouth
Member
Good question. I actually see this role being filled to some degree by Hyundai already. The Kona for example seems like a relatively lower priced pure EV. I think demand for this is enormous. The only problem is they can't build them fast enough. I am seeing them around more frequently now. For my $ the Tesla response to this is "great" - the market is clearly big enough for all these sectors to be filled. How and when Tesla goes downmarket has long been a question (starting with the decision to not really produce much of the SR M3). If other manufacturers fill this niche before Tesla that's a net positive.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I don't think it's physically possible for Tesla to manufacture enough $37k Model Y's to meet demand. Call me a fanboy, but in this environment I can't imagine young families buying anything else. TCO would be lower than any reasonable ICE option, for a vehicle 10x better an no emissions.
The problem with Tesla moving down market to me is mostly Elon. He won't sell a base Model Y without FSD, and really doesn't seem to have an appetite to do that for ANY car ever.
I still maintain that Model Y/3 will end up being the furthest down Tesla goes, and they skip right from there to the robotaxi. And I am absolutely NOT a FSD fanboy or optimistic on it. I just think Model Y is going to take over the world and they'll keep scaling it for like 3 years.
Why build anything else? You've already forced the others to do that Android-level manufacturing for you because they'll never compete at the top.
The problem with Tesla moving down market to me is mostly Elon. He won't sell a base Model Y without FSD, and really doesn't seem to have an appetite to do that for ANY car ever.
I still maintain that Model Y/3 will end up being the furthest down Tesla goes, and they skip right from there to the robotaxi. And I am absolutely NOT a FSD fanboy or optimistic on it. I just think Model Y is going to take over the world and they'll keep scaling it for like 3 years.
Why build anything else? You've already forced the others to do that Android-level manufacturing for you because they'll never compete at the top.
This is not a recent video - factory hasn't any walls yet. But I wish I was there!
Seems to me there are way too many rural/ low density areas where RoboTaxi would be difficult or impossible to pull off. Between here and Bend there are 20 small towns most of which are too small for some kind of robotaxi service. Lots of broke people there or people who are on fixed income.
There needs to be some option for those folks aside from "Buy Used Cars".
I do think Tesla is going to release a down-market car eventually. Maybe a return of the $35k M3 if nothing else.
There needs to be some option for those folks aside from "Buy Used Cars".
I do think Tesla is going to release a down-market car eventually. Maybe a return of the $35k M3 if nothing else.
For those who are interested as this is like an earnings report for the entire macro market..lol
I believe minutes release at 2pm
I believe minutes release at 2pm
Meeting calendars and information
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
In my opinion, Elon has moved past line extensions and is fully committed to robotaxi. I'm not even sure he's all that interested in the CT anymore. If they ever produce the Roadster it will purely be out of obligation. There MIGHT be a compact for China but in the US, no van, no compact, no nothin.
In other words, getcho Tesla while ya can.
If you feel the need to show that off to anyone, I can't be that far from you.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I'll add that if interest rates indeed get hiked 1/2%, and we then see inflation numbers easing, the Fed may decide to "play the next 1/2% hike by ear"...worrying that too drastic an increase could plunge us into recession. We might find that the NEXT hike is "contingent on continuing worsening conditions" which I think is unlikely. I'm generally hearing people say they think things are starting to settle now.
Market is expecting 1/2 a point increase and no other changes from previous plans for the remainder of 2022. Also, Jerome may say something that is determined hawkish, so there's that.
Don't worry, they'll have it fixed for the 2025 model year.
/s (kinda... another good reason for Tesla to not have model years)
So please don't take this as a harp on you or to call you out, but when someone says they think TSLA will trade sideways for a year or two, there really needs to be context/reason given besides just saying "bear market". This is more for those on this forum that maybe are new investing and don't understand the dynamics of TSLA's fundamentals, what TSLA's current earnings mean for future fundamentals, and how the macro market plays into that dynamic. I understand you've said you're a conservative investor, but there's a difference between being conservative and irrational.
The dynamics at play:
TSLA specific:
- Current EPS gives a forward P/E of 80.
- Tesla's 2022 EPS will likely be at least Q1 2.86 + Q2 2.86 + Q3 3.5 + Q4 4.5 = GAAP EPS of $13.72. These are relatively fair, if not conservative numbers. They're definitely not bullish numbers consider the jump in revenue for Q3/Q4 and we know earnings are going grow at least 2X the revenue growth due to operational leverage of Austin/Berlin reaching volume + Shanghai hitting new production capacity levels. That all flows to operating margin.
- Thus TSLA TTM P/E will be 66 if TSLA is at 917/share at the end of the year
- A GAAP EPS in Q4 of $4.5 will give a Forward P/E of 51
- If Tesla prints GAAP EPS of $13.72 for 2022, then it very likely, if not conservative, to think Tesla will print GAAP EPS of $25 for 2023.....which then gives TSLA a TTM P/E of 36 if the share price were still 917/share with a Forward P/E of around 25.
Macro Specific:
- As I pointed out a couple days ago, S&P Forward P/E is currently about 19. Which is pretty much right on the 50 year average P/E ratio for the S&P.
- Even during the 2008 financial crisis and following years, the P/E ratio of the S&P only got down to 14.87. It was mostly in the 16-18 range for those years.
- Meaning the market is pricing in effectively a 2008 financial crisis
- More historical context, throughout the 90's, which probably the most comparable to the economic dynamics for today, the S&P average a P/E of 20 for that decade.........all while Fed Fund rates went between 4-6%.
Other Stock comparisons:
- Even with massive drawdowns in high P/E stocks, I can routinely find plenty of stocks which still have P/E multiples that are 2-4X their current earnings and projected earnings growth.
- You can't have TSLA at a Forward P/E of 50 with over 100%+ earnings growth and have tons of other stocks at Forward P/E ratios of 20-40 when they're only growing earnings 7-15%. It simply doesn't work that way.
Have to sell stock for repairs …
My Model X started making some weird noises coming from the front suspension. Brought it in for service. Changed
- aft link assembly (both sides)
- fore link assembly (both sides)
- tie rod ball (both sides)
- driven Hub (both sides)
total costs over $5,000
After picking it up I noticed there were still noises so I brought it back again. Now the air spring needed replacement. Additional cost $3,500
I was very taken aback. Where are all these people telling me they drive 500.000 miles with only changing the washer fluid? I talked to the lady at the reception and she said that this is normal for higher mileage Model X. They are now coming in in droves with similar issues. She has worked at other high-end dealerships (Lexus. Mercedes) but she never seen anything like this with Model X. The other day there was a client who needed both front and rear suspension repair. Total cost $16,000!
The lady told me that Tesla - being a newer company- doesn’t have the experience in designing good suspensions and now we are paying the price for that.
We also talked about FSD. She told me to not hold our breath for having this anytime soon. My believe in Tesla is shaken to its core..
My Model X started making some weird noises coming from the front suspension. Brought it in for service. Changed
- aft link assembly (both sides)
- fore link assembly (both sides)
- tie rod ball (both sides)
- driven Hub (both sides)
total costs over $5,000
After picking it up I noticed there were still noises so I brought it back again. Now the air spring needed replacement. Additional cost $3,500
I was very taken aback. Where are all these people telling me they drive 500.000 miles with only changing the washer fluid? I talked to the lady at the reception and she said that this is normal for higher mileage Model X. They are now coming in in droves with similar issues. She has worked at other high-end dealerships (Lexus. Mercedes) but she never seen anything like this with Model X. The other day there was a client who needed both front and rear suspension repair. Total cost $16,000!
The lady told me that Tesla - being a newer company- doesn’t have the experience in designing good suspensions and now we are paying the price for that.
We also talked about FSD. She told me to not hold our breath for having this anytime soon. My believe in Tesla is shaken to its core..
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Not sure when it happened or if it was mentioned already, but I just noticed that Yahoo finally updated Tesla's PE Ratio (TTM) to 123.
I am curious, what kind of mileage are you talking about here? 100k? 200k? 500k? "High Mileage" is rather vague.
I'm not sure she is in a position to have a big scoop on FSD. I'm not completely sold on it hitting by end of year either, but I'm not sure I would take the word of someone at the service center as gospel on this.
Rob publicly called them out on Twitter about it.....and coincidentally they updated it like 3 hours later lol
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