Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Rob publicly called them out on Twitter about it.....and coincidentally they updated it like 3 hours later lol

Maybe Musk buys Yahoo next to fix Yahoo Finance

 

[ZachF]

I'll add that if interest rates indeed get hiked 1/2%, and we then see inflation numbers easing, the Fed may decide to "play the next 1/2% hike by ear"...worrying that too drastic an increase could plunge us into recession. We might find that the NEXT hike is "contingent on continuing worsening conditions" which I think is unlikely. I'm generally hearing people say they think things are starting to settle now.

The rising dollar is giving the fed a huge cushion.

Europe and Japan probably won’t be as lucky… because they import most of their energy/food/raw materials their currencies have been taking a beating recently and they may have to defend them soon.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Have to sell stock for repairs …

My Model X started making some weird noises coming from the front suspension. Brought it in for service. Changed
- aft link assembly (both sides)
- fore link assembly (both sides)
- tie rod ball (both sides)
- driven Hub (both sides)
total costs over $5,000

After picking it up I noticed there were still noises so I brought it back again. Now the air spring needed replacement. Additional cost $3,500

I was very taken aback. Where are all these people telling me they drive 500.000 miles with only changing the washer fluid? I talked to the lady at the reception and she said that this is normal for higher mileage Model X. They are now coming in in droves with similar issues. She has worked at other high-end dealerships (Lexus. Mercedes) but she never seen anything like this with Model X. The other day there was a client who needed both front and rear suspension repair. Total cost $16,000!

The lady told me that Tesla - being a newer company- doesn’t have the experience in designing good suspensions and now we are paying the price for that.

We also talked about FSD. She told me to not hold our breath for having this anytime soon. My believe in Tesla is shaken to its core..

The lady told me that Tesla - being a newer company- doesn’t have the experience in designing good suspensions and now we are paying the price for that....

So let me get this straight, someone had the service center told you Tesla does not have the experience in designing good suspensions? Do not get me wrong, i had several issues with my 2013 Model S, but i have never had anyone had service say something like that, nor do i think they are authorized to. I think she is just drawing her own assumptions here.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

IN RELATED NEWS

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521865882745683977

I just noticed that in the Tesla portal when I was playing with my finance options this morning that is was different. I couldn't remember the previous rate so I didn't want to report on it. But yes, its true:

 

[ZachF]

Seems to me there are way too many rural/ low density areas where RoboTaxi would be difficult or impossible to pull off. Between here and Bend there are 20 small towns most of which are too small for some kind of robotaxi service. Lots of broke people there or people who are on fixed income.

There needs to be some option for those folks aside from "Buy Used Cars".

I do think Tesla is going to release a down-market car eventually. Maybe a return of the $35k M3 if nothing else.

This, plus Europe and others with smaller roads would probably appreciate a smaller car.

 

[InDaClub]

Have to sell stock for repairs …

My Model X started making some weird noises coming from the front suspension. Brought it in for service. Changed
- aft link assembly (both sides)
- fore link assembly (both sides)
- tie rod ball (both sides)
- driven Hub (both sides)
total costs over $5,000

After picking it up I noticed there were still noises so I brought it back again. Now the air spring needed replacement. Additional cost $3,500

I was very taken aback. Where are all these people telling me they drive 500.000 miles with only changing the washer fluid? I talked to the lady at the reception and she said that this is normal for higher mileage Model X. They are now coming in in droves with similar issues. She has worked at other high-end dealerships (Lexus. Mercedes) but she never seen anything like this with Model X. The other day there was a client who needed both front and rear suspension repair. Total cost $16,000!

The lady told me that Tesla - being a newer company- doesn’t have the experience in designing good suspensions and now we are paying the price for that.

We also talked about FSD. She told me to not hold our breath for having this anytime soon. My believe in Tesla is shaken to its core..

Was her name Debbie?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Was her name Debbie?

View attachment 800466

I think her name was Pam Keith....

 

[thesmokingman]

The lady told me that Tesla - being a newer company- doesn’t have the experience in designing good suspensions and now we are paying the price for that....

So let me get this straight, someone had the service center told you Tesla does not have the experience in designing good suspensions? Do not get me wrong, i had several issues with my 2013 Model S, but i have never had anyone had service say something like that, nor do i think they are authorized to. I think she is just drawing her own assumptions here.

Is that guy trololo'ing? He made a tread then had to double down in here too?

Beware of Model X

My Model X started making some weird noises coming from the front suspension. Brought it in for service. Changed - aft link assembly (both sides) - fore link assembly (both sides) - tie rod ball (both sides) - driven Hub (both sides) total costs over $5,000 After picking it up I noticed there...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[The Accountant]

The lady told me that Tesla - being a newer company- doesn’t have the experience in designing good suspensions and now we are paying the price for that....

So let me get this straight, someone had the service center told you Tesla does not have the experience in designing good suspensions? Do not get me wrong, i had several issues with my 2013 Model S, but i have never had anyone had service say something like that, nor do i think they are authorized to. I think she is just drawing her own assumptions here.

You know that TeslaQ will be linking the original post on Twitter in 5...4...3...2...1

 

[Big Time]

IXIC responding well.... Hoping that continues threw speech & TSLA heads to 950

 

[thesmokingman]

Ohnoess!!! JPow in 13 minutes...

 

[Todd Burch]

Remember, the reception lady is both a suspension engineer and an AI expert.

 

[Mengy]

So please don't take this as a harp on you or to call you out, but when someone says they think TSLA will trade sideways for a year or two, there really needs to be context/reason given besides just saying "bear market". This is more for those on this forum that maybe are new investing and don't understand the dynamics of TSLA's fundamentals, what TSLA's current earnings mean for future fundamentals, and how the macro market plays into that dynamic. I understand you've said you're a conservative investor, but there's a difference between being conservative and irrational.

The dynamics at play:

TSLA specific:

- Current EPS gives a forward P/E of 80.
- Tesla's 2022 EPS will likely be at least Q1 2.86 + Q2 2.86 + Q3 3.5 + Q4 4.5 = GAAP EPS of $13.72. These are relatively fair, if not conservative numbers. They're definitely not bullish numbers consider the jump in revenue for Q3/Q4 and we know earnings are going grow at least 2X the revenue growth due to operational leverage of Austin/Berlin reaching volume + Shanghai hitting new production capacity levels. That all flows to operating margin.
- Thus TSLA TTM P/E will be 66 if TSLA is at 917/share at the end of the year
- A GAAP EPS in Q4 of $4.5 will give a Forward P/E of 51
- If Tesla prints GAAP EPS of $13.72 for 2022, then it very likely, if not conservative, to think Tesla will print GAAP EPS of $25 for 2023.....which then gives TSLA a TTM P/E of 36 if the share price were still 917/share with a Forward P/E of around 25.

Macro Specific:

- As I pointed out a couple days ago, S&P Forward P/E is currently about 19. Which is pretty much right on the 50 year average P/E ratio for the S&P.
- Even during the 2008 financial crisis and following years, the P/E ratio of the S&P only got down to 14.87. It was mostly in the 16-18 range for those years.
- Meaning the market is pricing in effectively a 2008 financial crisis
- More historical context, throughout the 90's, which probably the most comparable to the economic dynamics for today, the S&P average a P/E of 20 for that decade.........all while Fed Fund rates went between 4-6%.

Other Stock comparisons:

- Even with massive drawdowns in high P/E stocks, I can routinely find plenty of stocks which still have P/E multiples that are 2-4X their current earnings and projected earnings growth.
- You can't have TSLA at a Forward P/E of 50 with over 100%+ earnings growth and have tons of other stocks at Forward P/E ratios of 20-40 when they're only growing earnings 7-15%. It simply doesn't work that way.

Yep, basically you outlined what I think might happen over the next year or two. Note by sideways I don't mean it will stay ~ $920 per share but rather it will trade between here and the ATH of $1250 for the next year or two as Wall Street keeps compressing the PE quarter after quarter until it gets very low, like you state above.

Basically, I feel the trend below might continue for another year or two before the PE planes out and simply can not be compressed any more.

Again, just my hunch, I am certainly not stating this WILL happen and I truly hope it does not happen. I just fear it will happen based on the stock's trend lately, despite record earnings every quarter.

 

[ZsoZso]

I'm not listening to Powell, just looking at the ticker, based on that second-hand info, I judge he must be drunk and can't make a single legible sentence that can be interpreted the same way by all listeners...

 

[Thumper]

Have to sell stock for repairs …

My Model X started making some weird noises coming from the front suspension. Brought it in for service. Changed
- aft link assembly (both sides)
- fore link assembly (both sides)
- tie rod ball (both sides)
- driven Hub (both sides)
total costs over $5,000

After picking it up I noticed there were still noises so I brought it back again. Now the air spring needed replacement. Additional cost $3,500

I was very taken aback. Where are all these people telling me they drive 500.000 miles with only changing the washer fluid? I talked to the lady at the reception and she said that this is normal for higher mileage Model X. They are now coming in in droves with similar issues. She has worked at other high-end dealerships (Lexus. Mercedes) but she never seen anything like this with Model X. The other day there was a client who needed both front and rear suspension repair. Total cost $16,000!

The lady told me that Tesla - being a newer company- doesn’t have the experience in designing good suspensions and now we are paying the price for that.

We also talked about FSD. She told me to not hold our breath for having this anytime soon. My believe in Tesla is shaken to its core..

Frankly, I'm skeptical that any of this actually occurred. Teslas, like all cars do have component failures, but the piling on of the Tesla employee story just doesn't ring true. If she did say these things, her opinion of Tesla's engineering is no more valid than anyone else's. When I factor in that your never have anything positive to say about Tesla. I'll discount the report until documented.

 

[EVNow]

We also talked about FSD. She told me to not hold our breath for having this anytime soon.

I'm not sure she is in a position to have a big scoop on FSD. I'm not completely sold on it hitting by end of year either, but I'm not sure I would take the word of someone at the service center as gospel on this.

I'm sure the service lady knows no more than the Beta test drivers.

For anyone wondering whether Elon's promise for this year would be hit (vs earlier years) ..... here is the bit I really want to know. What is the disengagement rate of FSD Beta now ?

From all available crowd sourced (and obviously not scientific) data, it seems to be about 1 in 10 miles. I estimate human like error rates at 1 in 10,000 miles. So, FSD Beta needs to improve 100x to 1000x to come to human level (a large range to account for inaccuracy in estimates). Can that happen this year ... ? Suffice to say I won't be depending on it happening this year for my trades.

 

[Todd Burch]

I don't anticipate we'll be driverless by the end of this year...but I do believe that the improvements by the end of the year will be enough to convince people that it's possible to be there in a reasonable amount of time. Since people want to front-run what would be a massive run-up, believing that it's inevitable in a reasonable amount of time is all that's necessary for TSLA to start trending significantly upward.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yep, basically you outlined what I think might happen over the next year or two. Note by sideways I don't mean it will stay ~ $920 per share but rather it will trade between here and the ATH of $1250 for the next year or two as Wall Street keeps compressing the PE quarter after quarter until it gets very low, like you state above.

Basically, I feel the trend below might continue for another year or two before the PE planes out and simply can not be compressed any more.

Again, just my hunch, I am certainly not stating this WILL happen and I truly hope it does not happen. I just fear it will happen based on the stock's trend lately, despite record earnings every quarter.

Thanks for the clarification and to clarify myself, I also think P/E compression definitely continue to happen in the stock and also agree that the 1250, maybe 1350 area, could be the ceiling for the stock this year.

Then moving into next year, I see the trading range being between 1250-1600. 2024 maybe 1600-2000. And then in 2025, it sits between a 2 trillion and 2.5 trillion valuation. I'm definitely not one of those that thinks TSLA hits a 2 trillion valuation next year.

So yes, continued market cap increase each year while at the same time having ongoing P/E compression.

 

[FireMedic]

Have to sell stock for repairs …

My Model X started making some weird noises coming from the front suspension. Brought it in for service. Changed
- aft link assembly (both sides)
- fore link assembly (both sides)
- tie rod ball (both sides)
- driven Hub (both sides)
total costs over $5,000

After picking it up I noticed there were still noises so I brought it back again. Now the air spring needed replacement. Additional cost $3,500

I was very taken aback. Where are all these people telling me they drive 500.000 miles with only changing the washer fluid? I talked to the lady at the reception and she said that this is normal for higher mileage Model X. They are now coming in in droves with similar issues. She has worked at other high-end dealerships (Lexus. Mercedes) but she never seen anything like this with Model X. The other day there was a client who needed both front and rear suspension repair. Total cost $16,000!

The lady told me that Tesla - being a newer company- doesn’t have the experience in designing good suspensions and now we are paying the price for that.

We also talked about FSD. She told me to not hold our breath for having this anytime soon. My believe in Tesla is shaken to its core..

I have had the same issue on my 2020 LRX. had the link assemblies and hubs replaced at 20k miles. Several months ago I noticed the vibration has returned. My hope was to wait for refreshed X to ramp and maybe the improvements could be reverse compatible with my car. Sandy Munro indicated that some effort was made in the Engineering of the new Model S to allow for some backward compatibility, hopefully the same is true for the X.

And with regard to the showroom representative, I think we all know how valuable one persons opinion is, compared to the mounting evidence to the contrary that we and many others observe constantly.

Surely Tesla has made mistakes (admittedly), but to conclude that there is some kind of fatal flaw with TSLA or Tesla because of one person's observations about the Model X suspension or FSD is presumptive at best.

If this "believe in Tesla is shaken to its core" comment was sarcasm; the standard etiquette is to close with a (/s).

 

[Mengy]

Thanks for the clarification and to clarify myself, I also think P/E compression definitely continue to happen in the stock and also agree that the 1250, maybe 1350 area, could be the ceiling for the stock this year.

Then moving into next year, I see the trading range being between 1250-1600. 2024 maybe 1600-2000. And then in 2025, it sits between a 2 trillion and 2.5 trillion valuation. I'm definitely not one of those that thinks TSLA hits a 2 trillion valuation next year.

So yes, continued market cap increase each year while at the same time having ongoing P/E compression.

Yep that is exactly what I'm expecting to see. We stay beneath $1250 this year despite blowout quarters and rapidly increasing production, and then sometime in mid-late next year we finally break out big time because the PE is way too low for the financials and growth.

And then it rockets upwards out of control again as Tesla goes into beast mode with no room beneath it for Wall Street to play their games.