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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Deserves props from the crowd here just for accelerating the mission, and helping re-use wrecked Tesla parts.
EVWest is cool beans. I've been contemplating doing a conversion myself if I can find a decent 914. But if not a Factory Five 818 even though its not the best kit car made, far from it really lol, but...

 
As @hobbes and @FS_FRA both point out Germany did quite a lot to kickstart solar at scale but then they threw in the towel and there was little progress for years.
It is more accurate to say German solar was outcompeted by cheaper Chinese solar.

IMO you are criticising Germany with the benefit of hindsight, rather than judging their intention.

They are deploying a lot of wind energy, including offshore wind where they are experimenting with a wind/solar/wave hybrid generator.

The have developed good hydrogen electrolysers, but are again in danger of being outcompeted by cheaper Chinese products.

I think the German intention is generally good, but they sometimes struggle with execution. The Berlin factory is a classic example of that, it always had good support, but still had to struggle through the permitting system.
 
Twitter is human interaction, something Elon is not very good at...

One more Elon/Twitter comment before I get banned for excessive OT-ness. I disputed the second half of brother JRP3's sentence, when I should've addressed the first half.

Twitter is human interaction via software. The design of communication software has huge influence on its human interaction. I'm sure everyone can think of examples... for better (some apps) or worse (other apps).

First-principles thinking applied to software design can solve problems in ways that many people didn't think of. For example, one hit-piece article predicted that Elon's idea of a Twitter Edit button would allow highly Liked and Retweeted tweets to be edited to something terrible. But Elon said editing a tweet should delete all its Likes and Retweets. Problem solved.

Why didn't Twitter implement this idea already? Could it be they are not first-principles thinkers?

Prominent Progressives (whom I used to admire) are predicting Elon's Twitter changes will increase hate speech and misinformation. This is similar to their vitriol about Elon being anti-union. They don't know or admit that Elon's employees are treated well without a union -- a first-principles solution to the problem of mistreated employees. The Progressives can't imagine other solutions to problems besides the ones they know. They are not first-principles thinkers.

Elon will hire first-principles thinkers to redesign Twitter, just as he has done for all his companies. How about we see what they come up with before we join the alarmists fearing disaster.
 
When he starts selling large numbers of TSLA shares any rational investor should question why.

Every time Elon has sold Tesla shares we have been told why he's selling. There is nothing to question unless you don't believe him. If you really think there's more to Elon's selling than what he has let on you shouldn't be invested. Never invest in a person you think is a liar. What I see is a man who is the richest individual in the world and also the largest TSLA shareholder in the world. I would be more likely to question his mental balance if he didn't diversify to a limited degree as he has done.
 
It is more accurate to say German solar was outcompeted by cheaper Chinese solar.

IMO you are criticising Germany with the benefit of hindsight, rather than judging their intention.

They are deploying a lot of wind energy, including offshore wind where they are experimenting with a wind/solar/wave hybrid generator.

The have developed good hydrogen electrolysers, but are again in danger of being outcompeted by cheaper Chinese products.

I think the German intention is generally good, but they sometimes struggle with execution. The Berlin factory is a classic example of that, it always had good support, but still had to struggle through the permitting system.
I think you're muddling scarcity and sustainability. Germany doesn't need to manufacture renewable technology, it needs to buy and deploy it.

The world is quickly finding out it's just as silly to try and "own" a larger chunk of renewables market share as trying to hoard the sunshine.

When I refer to Germany slowing their transition I mean the purposeful tweaking of incentive to slow deployment.
 
I think you're muddling scarcity and sustainability. Germany doesn't need to manufacture renewable technology, it needs to buy and deploy it.

The world is quickly finding out it's just as silly to try and "own" a larger chunk of renewables market share as trying to hoard the sunshine.

When I refer to Germany slowing their transition I mean the purposeful tweaking of incentive to slow deployment.
Still they are using Renewables to generate a lot of electricity..


Renewable energy sources accounted for 50 percent of electricity consumption in Germany in the first quarter of 2022 – around nine percentage points more than in the same period last year.

Their offshore wind generators have problems with lower generation in summer, including some solar and wave generation was a possible solution for that.

The original solar subsidy was quite generous, and 6 months ago very few expected Russia to invade Ukraine.

And they are stepping up their efforts.

Germany wants to fight the climate crisis and its heavy dependence on fossil fuel imports by speeding up the rollout of renewables with a massive overhaul of key energy legislation.
 
I assume Teslabot won't be available until its ROI has been proven in Gigafactories. Factory jobs can be simple yet still useful. For example, a bot could follow a person and carry parts, take notes while the person inspects a line, or even hold a flashlight. The bot could grab a lunch or a coffee, and double as a guard at night. You could ask a bot to go grab something while still working on a task. Unlike people who do best with a single job, bots can switch tasks constantly and make great work assistants.

The tasks may seem frivolous, but I can easily see saving 30 minutes a shift. At 3 shifts a day, and 365 days a year @$30 / hour, that would save $16k annually. Selling bots for $30k should be an easy, and for a lot more if they can perform even 25% of a FT person's tasks.
Absolutely. I believe that they will be driven by Dojo, which Elon is going to have run Twitter so it becomes super adept at human interactions. Add an smaller, powerful starlink connector and they will never be off line!

I believe this is MasterPlan part three. Genius. What could go wrong?

(Sorry, couldn't help myself).
 
We've seen him be socially inept many times before he mentioned Aspergers. Yes he can inspire but he can also violently put his foot in his mouth.
That describes pretty much every person on the planet. I don’t have Aspergers and I’ve been all those things; socially inept, inspirational and had my foot firmly planted in my mouth.
 
Absolutely. I believe that they will be driven by Dojo, which Elon is going to have run Twitter so it becomes super adept at human interactions. Add an smaller, powerful starlink connector and they will never be off line!

I believe this is MasterPlan part three. Genius. What could go wrong?

(Sorry, couldn't help myself).
And once they each incorporate themselves, they will be people!
 
In all seriousness, I am very excited about this pullback. With the insane insane order backlog, Berlin and Texas coming on line, Shanghi coming back and now the new news of factory expansion I believe they are firmly on track for 50%+ y/y growth for at least the next 4 to 5 years. So 4m production run rate is possible in 2024 / 2025.

I'm moving more of my invested shares into Leaps. Thinking about selling some puts as well.
 
I intend this to be my last post here, forever.

One of the members here has been so rude to me in both private and in (internet) public that I don’t desire to participate anymore. No, it was not a mod, but they did abuse the “mod”system.

Best of luck to everyone. I’ll continue to peruse, but not participate.

Love y’all,

Tom

P.S. Go Tesla!!!!

P.P.S not selling until I’m dead
 
Hmm. That’s a valid point. Here’s mine; should I sort of fix that broken leg or should I fix it properly and entirely right off?
Well 2 out of 3 EV buyers do choose a BEV over a PHEV. I think it will become even more obvious with time. As batteries get cheaper, BEVs will have a cost advantage. As charging networks become more developed and ubiquitous, PHEVs will lose their gas station advantage. PHEV to BEV conquests may prove easier than conquests of diehard ICE fans.
 
One more Elon/Twitter comment before I get banned for excessive OT-ness. I disputed the second half of brother JRP3's sentence, when I should've addressed the first half.

Twitter is human interaction via software. The design of communication software has huge influence on its human interaction. I'm sure everyone can think of examples... for better (some apps) or worse (other apps).

First-principles thinking applied to software design can solve problems in ways that many people didn't think of. For example, one hit-piece article predicted that Elon's idea of a Twitter Edit button would allow highly Liked and Retweeted tweets to be edited to something terrible. But Elon said editing a tweet should delete all its Likes and Retweets. Problem solved.

Why didn't Twitter implement this idea already? Could it be they are not first-principles thinkers?

Prominent Progressives (whom I used to admire) are predicting Elon's Twitter changes will increase hate speech and misinformation. This is similar to their vitriol about Elon being anti-union. They don't know or admit that Elon's employees are treated well without a union -- a first-principles solution to the problem of mistreated employees. The Progressives can't imagine other solutions to problems besides the ones they know. They are not first-principles thinkers.

Elon will hire first-principles thinkers to redesign Twitter, just as he has done for all his companies. How about we see what they come up with before we join the alarmists fearing disaster.

Given that Elon often personally creates Twitter rants, I don't think he and his "free speech absolutism" are the right leader in the space.

Free speech absolutism gives you 4Chan which no sane advertiser or brand wants to be associated with. And if he's not actually about absolute free speech then firstly he's lying, and secondly he's right back in the job of regulating reasonable free speech which is hard, and nuanced, and not well suited to his talents which are about science.

Twitter is a massive distraction, and a bad idea, in that order, from the perspective of Tesla investors.