Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
To those concerned about a bitcoin impairment, I would not worry too much about Tesla's bitcoin balance sheet. Sure, there may be an impairment, but profits have jumped to such a level now that any impairment charge is just going to barely be a blip on the radar now.

Probably true. Impairment will only become significant if bitcoin continues to drop to, say, around half or less of its current value.

And who knows? I could never invest in bitcoin because there is no way to value it. It goes against my nature as an investor.
 
It was my understanding (although bear in mind I have the IQ of a small mollusc) that ARK has rules that if one stock is more than 10% of the value of one of the funds then it needs to be rebalanced, no? So sure, you can argue that selling TSLA is a dumb move, but that's the nature of the beast...

Anyone buying into the fund knows, or should know, the basket of stocks and the maintenance mechanisms, of you think COIN, Unity and Roblox are crappy stocks then you wouldn't have bought into ARKK in the first place, right?

Not trying to defend Cathy here, but I think the constant barrage of critical posts is getting a bit old


Disclosures show Ark has removed limits on company ownership

Previously the ETFs could invest only up to 30% of their assets in a single company amounting to no more than 20% of its outstanding shares

APRIL 6 2021

There is no longer a limit. She is selling into the dip (rather than buying) of a stock she thinks could hit $4,600 in ~4 years.

She basically got lucky on one stock - TSLA - and is still loading up on a bunch of (so far) losers.

From its ATH in February 2021, ARKK is down over 75%. In that time, SPY is up ~6% and QQQ is down ~3.8%. To underperform that badly in under 15 months, in what is essentially a flat market from that time...it takes some real trying.

She thought we had "bottomed out" in early May of 2021 and she "liked the setup." Just a month ago she was touting her confidence that her ARK funds would return 50% annually over the next five years (an ROI unheard of in active management).

I don't think the negative posts/sentiment have to do with which stocks she's buying or when. To me, it's...
a) selling Tesla into the dip, when she doesn't have to, while promoting price targets of $4,500+ in just 4-5 years time
b) not admitting she was wrong or they missed something, but doubling down
c) probably much smaller, but their "open source" price targets routinely get picked apart for very poor logic

But you're right - people who invest with them have to decide if their active management is worth the fees they charge. Since inception, ARKK has underperformed QQQ and has, at last check, basically returned the same as SPY. In the last five years, both of those funds have outperformed ARKK and Cathie loves to talk about their five-year time horizon.
 
Last edited:
Declining GDP, productivity, and real wages with 8% and rising inflation is about as textbook stagflationary as you can get.
A key part of stagflation is high unemployment which we aren't experiencing. To say this is about as textbook stagflationary as you can get is like trying to convince someone that you basically have a working bicycle, it's just missing one wheel.
 
Lol, Mr. Market thinks you are.

Cheers!

Legitimately, my sister does have a Ph.D. in Economics, and we talk frequently enough that hopefully I've picked up some things.

But I don't think the market is a very good "validator" of my economic acumen. At least not in the short term (too much volatility and anyone can pick a point to support their argument).
 
The real "inflation" report comes out at 10:30. The weekly EIA US commercial crude supply report.

There's a game of chicken going on, with Wall Street and London oil traders pushing to keep crude prices high on the basis of a looming "short supply".

This of course is nonsense, it's pure price gouging. Doesn't look like this "inflation" will abate until Putin leaves Ukraine. Even though we all know Russian crude will keep flowing regardless of outcome.
Huge build in US commercial crude stockpiles, +8.5Mb. Due almost entirely to the strategic reserve finally being drawn down by the 1Mb/d planned. Keep doing that for 3-5 weeks and this crude trade will be broken somewhere in there.

Refined fuels stockpiles up slightly as well.

If we had seen a surprise low CPI number and these EIA figures.....WTI was going rapidly -10%. As it is, we'll see what happens. For some reason WTI is up 5% as of 10:45am.
 
A key part of stagflation is high unemployment which we aren't experiencing. To say this is about as textbook stagflationary as you can get is like trying to convince someone that you basically have a working bicycle, it's just missing one wheel.

Agreed, but in certain segments there are some chinks in the armor of labor.

It's still a tight labor market for sure, but not as tight as it was just a few months ago. Main, and most important indicator of this, is wage growth.
 
A key part of stagflation is high unemployment which we aren't experiencing. To say this is about as textbook stagflationary as you can get is like trying to convince someone that you basically have a working bicycle, it's just missing one wheel.

Job growth was actually quite rapid during the stagflationary 1970s, but the labor force was growing faster as both the baby boomers and women were entering the labor market.

In terms of wage declines and productivity, we are actually doing worse than the 70s right now.

Productivity growth is the single most important factor for increasing living standards.
 
Job growth was actually quite rapid during the stagflationary 1970s, but the labor force was growing faster as both the baby boomers and women were entering the labor market.

In terms of wage declines and productivity, we are actually doing worse than the 70s right now.

Productivity growth is the single most important factor for increasing living standards.
Wrong wrong wrong

Unemployment rate was double what it is today.

Then combine the fact that a material % of the workforce is choosing to not participate in the labor force and you have a dynamic that is nothing like the 70’s.
 
Last edited: