Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

Is "impairment" some crypto speak I don't know about?

No. It’s a loss on the balance sheet when an asset loses value.

 

[Andy O]

To those who disagree, I still want to know the economics. Explain to me what I am not seeing here. A small village, 100 people, 30 go to work in the morning rush hour with >1 hour commutes. How are these people relying on robotaxi? How is it economic for a robotaxi to be sat idling in a small village, unused 90% of the time?

I love uber, and use it a lot when on holiday. robotaxis would be even better, but I still own a car, because the nearest taxi company to me is 20 minutes drive away. Even assuming greater penetration of robotaxis than existing taxis, its still going to be somewhere other than a tiny village.
People in remote areas are NOT going to commute by robotaxi, or rely on them. They will buy EVs. It feels like a lot of people are blindly believing elon and Cathy predicting the death of personal transport, without ever having spoken to someone in a rural community.
San francisco and California are the the entire world!

In a village of 200 people, everyone would walk to work. For transportation purposes recognize that you live in a much larger area with many more people.

I think Mengy explained the solution well.

 

[Accident]

Tesla has to record financial losses on Bitcoin based on the lowest price it hits while they hold it. So, if it goes lower than the previous low, Tesla takes an accounting loss.
Gains are only recognized if BTC is sold.

Correct. According to @The Accountant in Q2 21 the impairment charge was calculated at a Bitcoin price of $28,815. It's currently trading at $29,200 with a lot of volatility.

 

[henchman24]

CPI was way too high... the market now has more reasons to doubt Powell's 75bps statement. 10 year treasuries will hit 3.2 sometime very soon.

 

[ZachF]

Huh? Stagflation comes with high unemployment. We have very low unemployment and 11.5 million open jobs.

Stagflation = low/no growth + high inflation

People’s wages are declining at a ~3% pace in real terms.

Productivity growth is also awful. It declined at a 7% pace in the first quarter… that’s awful no matter how you slice it.

 

[bkp_duke]

Stagflation = low/no growth + high inflation

People’s wages are declining at a ~3% pace in real terms.

Productivity growth is also awful.

Aweful is an understatement. Productivity "growth" has been negative for several months now.



To those concerned about a bitcoin impairment, I would not worry too much about Tesla's bitcoin balance sheet. Sure, there may be an impairment, but profits have jumped to such a level now that any impairment charge is just going to barely be a blip on the radar now.

 

[Mengy]

Aweful is an understatement. Productivity "growth" has been negative for several months now.

To those concerned about a bitcoin impairment, I would not worry too much about Tesla's bitcoin balance sheet. Sure, there may be an impairment, but profits have jumped to such a level now that any impairment charge is just going to barely be a blip on the radar now.

Yeah, I'm more concerned about the China plant shutdown impact than I am about a BTC impairment for Q2.

 

[mongo]

Core inflation was much higher than predicted. Deflates the argument that "we have peaked". That's what the market isn't liking.

Regarding the 0.6% core increase:
Airfares increased 18.6% pushing Transportation up 3.1%, pretty much the main driver. New vehicles up 1.1%, medical and shelter up 0.5%. Everything else was under the 0.4% expectation.

 

[elasalle]

We've seen a lot of head fakes recently. Super green that then plunges. I think we see the opposite today. Too many big players had plans for a bounce bi think they'll continue on with their plan as we often see shorts do. Green by 10am is my guess.

Could be. Like a relief rally. (sell the rumor and buy the news type ....)

 

[ZachF]

To those concerned about a bitcoin impairment, I would not worry too much about Tesla's bitcoin balance sheet. Sure, there may be an impairment, but profits have jumped to such a level now that any impairment charge is just going to barely be a blip on the radar now.

Yeah.

Bitcoin could drop to $0 and Tesla will still probably make a profit.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yeah.

Bitcoin could drop to $0 and Tesla will still probably make a profit.

Tesla has like $1.3B worth of Bitcoin and will profit something like $3B in 2Q. So yes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah, I'm more concerned about the China plant shutdown impact than I am about a BTC impairment for Q2.

Wall St. has been 'backing out' BTC from Tesla's financial performance for the past few quarters. Wobbly $BTC won't be an issue.

 

[Tyler34]

Tesla will still probably make a profit.

I like this like bar for expectations

 

[henchman24]

The only issue with Bitcoin is that it is a poor use of cash and that will be underlined by a loss. It doesn't have any real impact on the company other than a poor allocation of resources.

 

[kanweg]

In a village of 200 people, everyone would walk to work. For transportation purposes recognize that you live in a much larger area with many more people.

I think Mengy explained the solution well.

If you look at how many cars are on the road during the day, it varies. It inherently means that robot axis can’t carry people all the time.
A second aspect is that your own car is in general pretty close to where you are and when you are at your destination and want to leave, ditto. a robotaxi however has to drive to pick you up and drive to go elsewhere, such as a location where it waits for a new job. This inherently means more miles travelled.
The first aspect can be repeated for holidays, when people drive a lot to their destination, and once there, not a lot.

I also don’t think that a robotaxi isn’t cheaper by an order of magnitude. I think my car costs me some $0.40 per km/ $0.60 per mile. People calculating the profit that can be made with robotaxis use numbers that are not less than that. And in view of capitalism, the price will be high for commuting bc then everyone needs a car. Which would make it less attractive. There are possibilities for car sharing though, as the server would be much better at finding rides that could be combined.

I don’t have to wait for my own car. Can leave stuff such as groceries in the car while doing other shopping etc. It is convenience.

robotaxis will be nice for people living in cities, or people like me who currently don’t want to go there just bc I’d have to find a place to park the car.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The real "inflation" report comes out at 10:30. The weekly EIA US commercial crude supply report.

There's a game of chicken going on, with Wall Street and London oil traders pushing to keep crude prices high on the basis of a looming "short supply".

This of course is nonsense, it's pure price gouging. Doesn't look like this "inflation" will abate until Putin leaves Ukraine. Even though we all know Russian crude will keep flowing regardless of outcome.

 

[growler23]

In a village of 200 people, everyone would walk to work. For transportation purposes recognize that you live in a much larger area with many more people.

I think Mengy explained the solution well.

This conversation reminds me of Vernor Vinge's vision of something very similar (anyone else read that book? Was it Rainbow's End?)
In that future, there was a network of constantly circling robotaxis. Since (as in real life) a lot of the cyberworld already knows our whereabouts and can deduce our proclivities (at least en masse), there was always one ready exactly where and when you needed it. It was a rare inconvenience that you actually needed to summon a robotaxi, and even then it would not be far away.
The dude had interesting foresight IMHO.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

robotaxis will be nice for people living in cities, or people like me who currently don’t want to go there just bc I’d have to find a place to park the car.

You mean..... everybody?

All this yapping about 200 villagers. They can keep using 50 Corollas to make this mythical commute. Perfectly fine solution.

Meanwhile, the 80% of the problem will be solved in urban and large rural areas.

 

[ZeApelido]

In the interview, Elon said if you want to see where FSD is now, just try it. I WANT TO!!!! I've been waiting with a 99 or 100 score for months!

No way a M.D. has a safety score of 99.

 

[Pezpunk]

The only issue with Bitcoin is that it is a poor use of cash and that will be underlined by a loss. It doesn't have any real impact on the company other than a poor allocation of resources.

Yup. I said that at the time of purchase and it remains true. Does nothing positive for Tesla’s mission or Tesla’s finances. Just a pure blunder.