Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CLK350]

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas breaks down shares of Tesla | CNBC (5:32)

Adam Jonas' opening statement:


AJ is recycling his thesis from March 2019, when he stated that "Tesla is overvalued on fundamentals and undervalued strategically". #31,082

At that time (over 3 yrs ago), TSLA's Mkt Cap was $45.7B (and it's SP was $52.90 - split adjusted):

View attachment 803777

Well, guess what AJ? You were wrong then, and you're wrong now. Tesla has GROWN into its Mkt Cap, and 20x since. He discounts AI as "fully-priced-in" with a handwave, yet ignores the entire progress on public display in the FSD beta program. He ignores future AI products like DOJO-as-a-Service, and TeslaBot (with the largest possible TAM on Earth, and beyond-- a product literally headed to Mars).

AJ further ignores Tesla Insurance, Cybertruck, Semi, Robotaxi, and Supercharging service. But he's still quite certain that China bad, and MAYBE, there can be a spin-off on the Shanghai Stock Exchange but he's not sure... Wassa matta AJ? Can't wet ur beak in China? U banned, bro?

Then, AJ ignores Giga Berlin and Giga Austin as the solutions for all the problems he attributes to Tesla's current concentration of manufacturing in China. What.a.maroon! Never let facts get in the way of a good story, right AJ?

TL;dr Tesla has grown; AJ has remained stuck in the past

Ha hah hah ... someone has posted these remarks on Jonas' YouTube post, so head on there and thumb up that comment to give it more visibility. Can't believe how much longer our establishment can keep up the multiple charades. Maybe that's why they got the Ukraine theater going - what next, food shortages and riots?

 

[Curt Renz]

TD Ameritrade on Tesla and other EVs - this afternoon:

 

[SN_8]

What a fascinating week watching these

 

[ZenRockGarden]

More important is how many tweets from each bot vs. troll farms, vs regular individuals. 5% bots might do over 50% of all tweets.

Twitter is riddled with bots, which pretty much everyone knows, but Twitter is reluctant to deal with since it conveniently inflates their userbase and usage stats.

Elon sounds like he wants out of the deal, which I think would be great.

 

[ZeApelido]

The rats are crawling out from under the kitchen cabinet again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525244282038145025

 

[WattsHappening]

Twitter is riddled with bots, which pretty much everyone knows, but Twitter is reluctant to deal with since it conveniently inflates their userbase and usage stats.

Elon sounds like he wants out of the deal, which I think would be great.

I think it would be great also if he were to want out of the deal. I realize it's easy to throw around other people's money, but heck, it's just $1B.

But it looks to me like he is just posturing for a better deal. Whether it's Elon that wants a better deal or the consortium of investors he is lining up, there seems to be a consensus that a better deal can be had pretty easily.

 

[Cal1]

Elon cannot get margin called because the deal has not even closed yet. Yes, might make it more challenging in the future if SP remains low. But he cannot be margin called yet.

I've not paid attention to Musk's Twitter details. Are you saying Musk is buying part of Twitter on a naked margin postion? His selling Tesla shares for cash wasn't enough to finish things? How much Twitter did he buy (or commit to buy) on margin?

 

[Ogre]

I've not paid attention to Musk's Twitter details. Are you saying Musk is buying part of Twitter on a naked margin postion? His selling Tesla shares for cash wasn't enough to finish things? How much Twitter did he buy (or commit to buy) on margin?

It's a non-story. He originally used his Tesla shares as collateral against a loan. He's since restructured it so it won't be needed (likely the plan all along).

The whole margin call premise was ridiculous to start with and is now not even possible at all.

 

[Ogre]

Elon sounds like he wants @ZenRockGarden wants Musk out of the deal, which I think would be great.

Musk is negotiating.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I think Rivian has a lot of potential... I am very worried about their op ex. It is improving as the stock stuff wipes out and you can see a path to roughly halving it... but still it is way too high. They have a lot of cash right now to make it through though.

Are you me? Their products are great (even if they just shamelessly copy all of the best Tesla features). If they can figure out production / operations, as well as possibly innovate on their own rather than relying on the blueprint put out by Tesla, they'll be a big name in the EV space for sure imho. Some big "ifs" though. I see them as the most common-sense acquisition by AAPL to get into the space if they ever decide to go that route rather than in-house.

 

[henchman24]

The rats are crawling out from under the kitchen cabinet again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525244282038145025

Somebody’s short didn’t work out so well

 

[henchman24]

Are you me? Their products are great (even if they just shamelessly copy all of the best Tesla features). If they can figure out production / operations, as well as possibly innovate on their own rather than relying on the blueprint put out by Tesla, they'll be a big name in the EV space for sure imho. Some big "ifs" though. I see them as the most common-sense acquisition by AAPL to get into the space if they ever decide to go that route rather than in-house.

Yup… you can see the Tesla copy everywhere (no secret how either), but if they can get through all the BS… there is a good product there. They have a very long ways to go though.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Yup… you can see the Tesla copy everywhere (no secret how either), but if they can get through all the BS… there is a good product there. They have a very long ways to go though.

I saw my first R1T in the wild Wednesday using the EA charger in front of Safeway. So, I guess somebody got theirs. Its a pretty great (traditional) looking PU. I really hope they can keep it together for another couple of years as this TAM is huge. It can easily satisfy as many EV's of every kind that can be made. It definitely is still in the "little engine that could" stage at this point though.

 

[kbM3]

James Douma interview other than with Dave Lee. It’s at a more basic and less technical level. He does explain why some failures occur with the current system.

Of course it’s James Douma, so very highly recommended!

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Musk is negotiating.

I am indeed guilty of stating my opinion, as.... my opinion.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

E*Trade has been oscillating between 25%, 40% and 60% maintenance margin requirement for me. My account with them is 100% TSLA shares and calls.

This seems extreme. Have you looked at other brokers?

I’ve found IBKR relatively predictable.
Margin req was very high ~.60 following >10x TSLA run up. This made sense as it essentially did not unlock newly available buying power too quickly.

Once the price stabilized ~1.5 year ago MR had stayed in .30 -.40 range (depending on portfolio concentration).

 

[Electroman]

Inso

Ha hah hah ... someone has posted these remarks on Jonas' YouTube post, so head on there and thumb up that comment to give it more visibility. Can't believe how much longer our establishment can keep up the multiple charades. Maybe that's why they got the Ukraine theater going - what next, food shortages and riots?

I don’t see that comment in YouTube

 

[Electroman]

The rats are crawling out from under the kitchen cabinet again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525244282038145025

I am blocked by that scumbag. Can someone post this crash that happened recently in LA and ask that presstitute to write a report.

Notice how it is ‘a car’ that crashed and killed. If that has been a Tesla then headlines would mention Tesla.

Three Killed When Car Crashes Into Tree and Catches Fire in East LA

Three people were killed early Friday in a crash and fire in East Los Angeles.

www.nbclosangeles.com

 

[Carl Raymond]

A heads up that Australia has a federal election a week from today. Early signs are that there will be a change of government. If that happens, new policy will benefit Tesla. More renewables, more storage, measures to promote EVs.

There are a number of independent candidates running in conservative seats on climate action platforms. This is a first. A possibility is that these people end up holding the balance of power, European style. Watch for a “hung parliament” headline. If this happens we get climate action on steroids, with no mercy shown to fossil fuel interests. Fingers crossed. Such a result would also be a sign of the times, echoing around the world. That world would belong to (sustainable energy companies like) Tesla.

 

[Gigapress]

This seems extreme. Have you looked at other brokers?

I’ve found IBKR relatively predictable.
Margin req was very high ~.60 following >10x TSLA run up. This made sense as it essentially did not unlock newly available buying power too quickly.

Once the price stabilized ~1.5 year ago MR had stayed in .30 -.40 range (depending on portfolio concentration).

In process of switching to IKBR. That’s good to know. I like also that they have ultra low margin interest and automatic selling instead of calls.