Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

My confidence is growing that Elon or some other big brain at Tesla has been taking the time to post on this forum. It has certainly bolstered my HODL’ing skills through all this recent noise.

Forgive me Gigapress if I’m outing you…hopefully I haven’t broken the first rule of fight club.

I have never worked at Tesla or any of Elon’s companies and have no insider connections at all. I’m working off of public information.

Earlier this year when the market started tanking amidst stunning Tesla performance, I decided to switch from basic share hodling to margin and LEAPS.

As my investment position got increasingly aggressive the more TSLA fell, I thought I should get my thoughts clearly organized and put them out on the forum. It’s a way to get crowdsourced feedback to find out if I’ve lost my mind while also providing some community service and practicing my writing and analytical skills. The appreciation is gratifying too, but dangerous because I might become attracted more to likes than to accuracy.

I estimate there’s on the order of $100M worth of TSLA holdings between everyone here combined plus lurkers and friends and family of members. There’s also an appreciable probability that some whales like Koguan or investment bankers have caught on to the value of this thread, and also a high probability that at least some major YouTubers lurk or participate here too. There may be billions worth of capital in total that is influenced by this thread.

If my thesis is correct and it convinces readers to hold or buy more then I will have magnified my efforts to help humanity more than anything else I could do right now simply by reading a lot and typing some stuff into my computer. (Not because it’s investment advice but because the predictions might be correct).

 

[traxila]

The human mind is a strange thing, isn't it?
View attachment 809422

But you are correct!

We are still in buying territory. I bought more LEAPs today. All JUN 24s.

800 and 1000 strikes.

Going to hang on for now. Revisiting 500s post 2Q earnings in the future cannot mean any forced liquidations for me. The plan is to get back the shares I sold, plus, not to give anymore away.

 

[henchman24]

The move to test 760 looks imminent.

 

[bkp_duke]

The move to test 760 looks imminent.

Volume is trailing off. It won't push through unless that changes.

Hope you are right and I'm wrong.

 

[henchman24]

Volume is trailing off. It won't push through unless that changes.

Hope you are right and I'm wrong.

We're close the moment of a macro pop that will drive some volume into Tesla.

 

[Words of HABIT]

The recent 50% decline in TSLA means we need to increase by 100% to get back to ATH. This three day gain of 20% is a nice start. It's a start. 80% gain to go.

Looking at Tesla in a silo (apart from macro conditions) it is simply Tesla losing 70% of their current manufacturing capacity (GF Shanghai) at the time due to city wide covid lockdown which commenced April 5th. On April 1st, TSLA was trading over $1,146. We now have GF Shanghai ramping up to pre-covid shutdown manufacturing capacity, perhaps even greater, hence the rising share price. Not to mention GF Berlin and GF Austin coming on line. Greater catalysts. The scammers get Q2 production results to knock the share price down, then barring another covid shut down, we are back to ATH and beyond by end of calendar year, Q4 results in January fo' sure.

This recent 8 week downturn of Tesla's share price has very little if anything to do with Elon's proposed purchase of Twitter, despite what the Media want you to believe.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The move to test 760 looks imminent.

I believe this is the part of the day where I say something like "volume seems low", and then we splode upwards on continued decent volume that would normally trail off to nothing in the afternoon. So I'd like to add that....

Volume seems pretty modest today. Open was big, but been pretty normal after that initial burst. We're fading here and I see MM's moving in to push down below $749.99 close.

Edit: Just noticed @bkp_duke beat me to it. Lol

 

[henchman24]

I believe this is the part of the day where I say something like "volume seems low", and then we splode upwards on continued decent volume that would normally trail off to nothing in the afternoon. So I'd like to add that....

Volume seems pretty modest today. Open was big, but been pretty normal after that initial burst. We're fading here and I see MM's moving in to push down below $749.99 close.

Edit: Just noticed @bkp_duke beat me to it. Lol

I do think that a close at ~750 is more likely, but not before a test of 760.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Volume is trailing off. It won't push through unless that changes.

Hope you are right and I'm wrong.

Volume trailing off and TSLA not following the macro's higher in the last few mins. I think MM's take their stand at 750

I believe this is the part of the day where I say something like "volume seems low", and then we splode upwards on continued decent volume that would normally trail off to nothing in the afternoon. So I'd like to add that....

Volume seems pretty modest today. Open was big, but been pretty normal after that initial burst. We're fading here and I see MM's moving in to push down below $749.99 close.

Edit: Just noticed @bkp_duke beat me to it. Lol

Volume is higher than yesterday at this same time.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Btw, seems like a material increase in production at Austin if you look at this drone video and compare it to previous days. Lik a very material increase.

Also, if you look at previous days on the lot, they're definitely taking quite a few away each day on trucks

 

[mongo]

The recent 50% decline in TSLA means we need to increase by 100% to get back to ATH. This three day gain of 20% is a nice start. It's a start. 80% gain to go.

Ya had me, then you lost me.
20% followed by 80% is 116% gain.
Starting with a gain of 20%, only a compounded 67% gain is needed to double.
4 gains of 20% is 108% gain.
Including an inital 20% gain, six 10% gain periods gets it above double.

 

[UncaNed]

A rational investor might ask tesla: Why not just make batteries and FSD software? Let everyone else do the rest, as public opinion on EVs has changed, legacy auto is starting (slowly) to transition, and FSD software and hardware is nearing completion.

Interesting thought, but imagine Tesla having to negotiate with, adapt their batteries and FSD software to, and constantly interface with each of their scatterbrained, technically challenged, confused customers (Ford, GM, and many, many others). And the results would all be substandard at best; legacy is doing a mediocre job at best.

And, as @elasalle pointed, vertical integration.

 

[Zero CO2]

Is is me or has the mood improved around here

I have never worked at Tesla or any of Elon’s companies and have no insider connections at all. I’m working off of public information.

Earlier this year when the market really started tanking amidst stunning Tesla performance, I decided to switch from basic share hodling to using margin and I got into options trading to start scooping up LEAPS.

As my investment position got increasingly aggressive the more the TSLA price fell, I thought I should get my thoughts clearly organized and put them out on the forum. It’s a way to get crowdsourced feedback to find out if I’ve lost my mind while also providing some community service and practicing my writing and analytical skills. The appreciation is gratifying too, but dangerous because I might become attracted more to likes than to accuracy.

I’m also convinced that some major YouTubers follow or even participate in this thread and I may influence their opinions enough to have a much broader positive impact on society than I could doing anything else.

Yes you need to watch out for "the emperor's new clothes" and the likes"

no naked shorting allowed

 

[ZeApelido]

Earnst and Young report on automotive trends.

Why consumers are charging toward electric vehicles

The top motivator in EV sales remains environmental concern, while penalties with ICE vehicles and EV incentives emerge.

www.ey.com

TLDR

Global demand for pure BEVs up 3x (!!!) from 7% to 20% in 2 years. Suffice to say, supply has not increased 3x in 2 years.

Interestingly, U.S. shows little change in 2 years, whereas Germany went from 4% to 22% in 2 years.

 

[AMN]

I estimate there’s on the order of $100M worth of TSLA holdings between everyone here combined plus lurkers and friends and family of members.

I know 2 barely posting members on here with TSLA holdings above the stated number.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The recent 50% decline in TSLA means we need to increase by 100% to get back to ATH. This three day gain of 20% is a nice start. It's a start. 80% gain to go.

Looking at Tesla in a silo (apart from macro conditions) it is simply Tesla losing 70% of their current manufacturing capacity (GF Shanghai) at the time due to city wide covid lockdown which commenced April 5th. On April 1st, TSLA was trading over $1,146. We now have GF Shanghai ramping up to pre-covid shutdown manufacturing capacity, perhaps even greater, hence the rising share price. Not to mention GF Berlin and GF Austin coming on line. Greater catalysts. The scammers get Q2 production results to knock the share price down, then barring another covid shut down, we are back to ATH and beyond by end of calendar year, Q4 results in January fo' sure.

This recent 8 week downturn of Tesla's share price has very little if anything to do with Elon's proposed purchase of Twitter, despite what the Media want you to believe.

I'm probably the worst TMCer when it comes to expecting share price appreciation from quarterly results. So I've had a front row seat to plenty of call options expiring worthless in the weeks and months after blockbuster results.

There is no logic (ZERO) to when TLSA rips north. It's some combination of naked short interest, options market flow, and only a small percentage of performance surprise. All we can do is track how Tesla the company is performing and make our best guess at what kind of revenue/earnings that means.

I'm of the opinion the combination of entering the steepest part of the S-curve AND earnings growing exponentially means we're in a pretty tight window where a breakout must happen. The ultra-important TSLA options market simply won't function if it doesn't. I however do not get a vote if that becomes reality.

TL;DR......Individual results mean next to nothing these days.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Odds we close above $900 by June 10th? Asking for a friend with a ton of $900 calls...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I know 2 barely posting members on here with TSLA holdings above the stated number.

For real. My assumption is there's more than a dozen. How could there not be?

If I'd invested $450k on my join date, I'd be sitting on $100M right now selling at $1200. I think there is(or were) more than a few people here who invested $280k at IPO and cashed out $100M around $1200.

That's why I worry about people in the "other thread" talking about where they live and vacation! (I don't have that problem )

 

[cliff harris]

I know 2 barely posting members on here with TSLA holdings above the stated number.

A lot of people lurk on forums and never post. Especially older people, who for obvious reasons can have larger retirement funds than younger more keyboard-happy types
I remember years ago, gali from hyperchange being interviewed and he said on air how many tesla shares he had, and it was just a few thousand dollars. Likely a lot for someone his age, but that made me realize how there is NO link at all between how much someone posts, or talks about, or promotes a thing...and how much they have invested*

Some people are cash rich and time poor. That means they can invest a lot of cash, but don't have time to discuss it with strangers.
Tesla's market cap is hundreds of billions. I'd be amazed if a large chunk of those holders did not frequent this forum and specifically this thread. Surely more than 5% of the market cap is represented here. I'd be amazed if Jonas, Trip, Cathie et al do not have it bookmarked.

*I am on one (private) forum with a billionaire. He does not post as much as the others.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

Bought 10 shares last (Wednesday) morning.

Installing 61 solar panels starting 1Jun2022. Third house to receive panels Four Tesla Powerwalls whenever they are available. I blew off my last contractor because the wanted twice the price of Tesla Powerwalls. Twice the price of the two they installed in 2019. Bottom line, I am excited.

I have come to joke that the joke in high school among my motorcycle buddies, “Jack up the gas cap and replace everything under the cap.” My wife describes this house as a museum that has not been updated in thirty years. Nothing about this house will be left untouched before I am/we are done. Within four months I repurposed the flag foundation to host a fantastically beautiful kinetic glass and stainless steel wind sculpture. I just wish the sculptor had included a kit to generate electricity. I have wanted a piece of this guys work for over twenty-five years.

Monday my wife/partner etc, and I were at our lowest on the stock. That was the bottom, when we get stressed about our commitments, that is the bottom. I just wish we could find the peek as easily

Thank you Tesla employees for allowing me to follow my visions.