If the movie was accurate, the Titanic made a pretty quick 90 degree turn at the end. Into the depths that is.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
He is spot on. I can't believe officials are falling for this... <drum roll> scam.
I assume you're referring to the Q2 production and delivery report -- can you explain why you think that will be a positive? I do not think there's much of a possibility of maintaining Q1 production numbers, and especially not delivery numbers since Q1 drew down inventory. So I expect this will be the first time in "the modern age" that Tesla's numbers are down Q on Q. I guess everybody who's paying attention has to be expecting that, but last I heard a lot of the analyst forecasts hadn't been updated since before the shutdown, or at least since before the shutdown went so long. It certainly seems possible that the production and delivery numbers will be a "miss" or will at least be spun as a "miss." Even if the analysts lower their expectations enough, it will be a case of "that didn't suck as bad as we thought" (not a big positive) unless somehow Tesla DOES manage to match Q1. I just think that's at best a hail mary at this point.
Yes, the authorized shares will imply a maximum split ratio, but not necessarily a minimum. In my mind, the only potential reason to not authorize a huge number of shares is possibly increased annual Delaware filing fees. I don't know whether Tesla is impacted by this or not as my experience is with private companies who pay annual filing fees based on number of authorized shares. And any higher cost is immaterial to Tesla anyway. Any savings is probably more than offset by increased cost in paperwork for a second authorization to increase shares down the line. So as I reason this out, they should just authorize a sh!t ton of shares.
As for timing, I am of the strong opinion it will be effective by the end of August, as that is when the current 6 month window for employee stock purchase plan deferrals and pricing ends. A stock split by August 31 will maximize employees' ESPP purchases.
You should consider buying QLD. 2X leveraged QQQ and it will stick to a 2x beta, gives you less cancer over the long run
A few reasons I think the Q2 P/D will be a positive catalyst, potentially a very large catalyst.
- I've seen a ton of Q2 estimates and twitter posts that have very flawed logic/math, especially when it comes to lost production in Q2 vs Q1. Practically no one accounts for the fact that Q1 had 15-16 days of lost production in Shanghai itself. This makes a very big difference when estimating Q2 for Shanghai
- A certain Twitter poster who is quite influential has a P/D estimate that I think is quite laughable. And yet, actual analyst's base their estimates of this person
- Said Twitter poster is using data points such as Rueter's to base their low estimates on. The Reuter's articles are VERY debatable. Reuter's has skewed the truth and flat out lied on these articles before. Just look at this past week. You had many reports, including Rob Mauer saying on his podcast from his own sources that Tesla is hitting the 2,500/day number....and was doing so last week. Yet Rueter's put out an article this week saying that their "sources" are saying Tesla is only at 70% production. And of course, said Twitter poster is using the Rueter's article to justify what I consider to be laughable P/D estimate.
- Both Berlin/Austin are obviously going through material increase in production at this very moment and thus, I think their P/D estimates for Q2 are too low and will offer a surprise.
- Fremont activity has been consistently very high all quarter. It would be logical to assume that Tesla is trying to make up some lost production of Shanghai with running Fremont production at higher levels....maybe they were able to allocate more chip to Fremont while Shanghai was down.
- Analysts revisions over the past 2 weeks have shown complete disconnect from reality, both in terms of deliveries and earnings for 2022. One analyst, who has a buy rating on the stock, lowered their estimate to 1.2 million deliveries for 2022. This reeks of illogical fear taking over. Something we saw in 2020 when Tesla's estimates for 2020 P/D were greatly cut........only for Tesla to hit the 500k number.
I still think Tesla will do at least 270k deliveries for Q2 along with giving highlights in the P/D report that state Shanghai hit a new factory daily production rate and will increase further in Q3, and that Berlin and Austin have hit rates of 1,000/week to start Q3.
It really doesn't matter that the P/D number will be down from Q1. The reason that I think Q2 P/D will be a positive catalyst that it's the first catalyst in a string of them that will effectively go through end of Aug which are - Q2 P/D, then Q2 Earnings, then Annual Shareholders meeting where stock split will be approved, then stock split end of Aug. Then by end of Sept, we get Q3 P/D which shows a very large jump from Q2.
So Q2 P/D numbers are just the first match being struck. Now obviously if Shanghai goes back into quarantine or Tesla says on the report that Berlin/Austin are only at something like a combined 1,000/day rate, then it could be viewed negatively. But a lot of bad news and fears are already priced in. So I think TSLA goes higher unless some new bad news comes out.
But if Tesla actually manages to get anywhere close to Q1 P/D, say 290-305k. You're looking at a major move higher.
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It's not better than a subway system except that it comes 10 million per mile vs 350 million per mile to build out and 1/10th the time. And it's not difficult to build longer human transport systems to go through the tunnel at a tiny fraction of a subway train.
It's all economics. Elon doesn't invent the wheel, never has. He only focus on commoditizing very expensive infrastructural/logistical problems or else it's a pet science project.
This, I suppose, is what worries most of us. If you think Ford has inertia, well then, the world economy has giga-inertia. That's the bigger issue.
Will we turn the ship or hit the iceberg? I think we are starting to turn in the right direction... whether she'll come about from these deadly waters is very much still an open question.
I don't think there is a number to target, but more of a situation that runs out of control of the market with coverage. Those can end of a million different reasons. The squeeze to 1250 was killed by Elon selling shares (it had potential to 1400++). The squeeze in March/April was killed by inflation numbers coming back too hot and Elon going after Twitter. Squeezes can last months... even years (see GME) and reach levels that are hard to fathom. I don't think Tesla would ever get to a GME level, but a quick move to 1000 could happen... or a longer drawn out and compounded move to 2400 could happen. All a matter of how long it takes to unwind and if there is an event to kill the squeeze.
Divergence doesn't necessarily mean positive or negative, it just means disconnected. Macros have a factor in all moves, but what you're describing is simply a larger disconnect (and plenty of reasons why). The more the disconnects happen, the more volatile (negative and positive) the stock will be. There was a point today where Tesla was over 8x the Nasdaq until it hit a level that threatened things getting out of control. If Tesla can get momentum to pass the key levels and build, there will be a moment where the market can't control the rise.
We are already seeing some resetting and troubles with the option chain from last week's rise over 720 that had to hold 760.... which causes movements up in the chain for this week including the big jump from yesterday to today. A close over 800 (I think 810 is the number that would really wind this up) this week would create a lot of shuffling to be done on the chain next week. Which would likely cause a large disconnect on any negative day for the overall market. Meaning Tesla would be pushed down substantially more, only to have a rise later in the week when the options expire. This is a pretty typical signal of a squeeze in progress. Push down to help unwind, but as the unwinding happens a large jump... if the jump gains momentum it can push into higher levels. We're not there yet, but it is getting closer.
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insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Maybe Farley is grandstanding, but he's saying the correct things and quite surprising coming from a legacy OEM CEO. Dealership model has to change and the new model will be very different...
Farley went on to say that he sees the physical locations of dealers as a huge opportunity to push an edge over competitors, but that the current stores will have to radically evolve. Dealers can do it, he said, "but the standards are going to be brutal."
So, I must give credit when due as most of the remarks were honest and dire. Good for you Ford, you just decreased your odds of a death spiral.
"We've got to go to non-negotiated price. We've got to go 100 percent online. There's no inventory (at dealerships), it goes directly to the customer. And 100 percent remote pick up and delivery,"
The company also intends to massively scale back advertising for its EVS, another way it has to adapt. "If you ever see Ford Motor Co. doing a Super Bowl ad on our electric vehicles, sell the stock,"
I would have read the USA Today article if not behind a paywall...
Farley went on to say that he sees the physical locations of dealers as a huge opportunity to push an edge over competitors, but that the current stores will have to radically evolve. Dealers can do it, he said, "but the standards are going to be brutal."
So, I must give credit when due as most of the remarks were honest and dire. Good for you Ford, you just decreased your odds of a death spiral.
"We've got to go to non-negotiated price. We've got to go 100 percent online. There's no inventory (at dealerships), it goes directly to the customer. And 100 percent remote pick up and delivery,"
The company also intends to massively scale back advertising for its EVS, another way it has to adapt. "If you ever see Ford Motor Co. doing a Super Bowl ad on our electric vehicles, sell the stock,"
I would have read the USA Today article if not behind a paywall...
I think for me, divergence has to show longevity for it to actually be divergence, or at least any divergence of significance. Which is why I look to see TSLA's strength in the following days after the stock starts to show signs of divergence.
In this case, I give TSLA a big fat F.
That close was extremely weak. Couldn't even hold a 2X beta today which pretty confirms to me that there was no divergence last week. Just a blimp and back to regularly scheduled programming. Which again, this has no bearing long term of course for anything. But if anyone here is expecting some sort of strength in TSLA for the next couple of weeks, they're going to be very disappointed.
I think money will be rotating around playing the stock split. Our turn is most likely in August. Before then we probably will just get some chump change from solid green days.
I'm not sure. It's only for electric cars and most of the dealers probably don't see the writing on the wall yet. They will be pissed about losing those 20 grand markups though.
Because it is an express system, not a stop at every stop system. I’d much rather use an express system and pay taxi prices, than a stop by stop system and pay subsidized subways fares. Also, relatively cheap multi level tunnels underground allow you to expand capacity easily.
But hey, there is a thread about Boring company. Doesn’t have a whole lot to do with Tesla.
First, the markups are a serious loss to their margins that have been incredibly high over the last couple years... but losing the rights to any sales from Ford, is a serious cut at the long-term viability of the whole model.
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