Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Thanks, unaware of this tid-bit. Would be interested to see how the same legislators would vote now that they have egg on their faces from the large outage, and that Tesla is quickly becoming one of the largest employers in TX.

Tesla has been approved as a Texas energy producer.
Also from this article, Tesla is putting in a 250MW(h?) battery at/near Giga Austin.

Tesla Energy Texas

 

[MP3Mike]

Also very convenient that this stricter policies happen after Tesla's head of AI just returned from a sabbatical.

Of course that is false, the head of AI is still on sabbatical... (At least as far as I know. I thought he had a couple months left coming back in August.)

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla has been approved as a Texas energy producer.
Also from this article, Tesla is putting in a 250MW(h?) battery at/near Giga Austin.

Tesla Energy Texas

Yeah, there is an electrical sub-station just north of GF Austin. Tesla is majorly upgrading that station (some gear has already arrived on site, but no megapacks yet). Given the number of solar panels on roof of GFA, and the megapacks, it's clear that Tesla wants to first become energy independent on site and then become a net producer. I'm elated to see things like this out of this company.

 

[henchman24]

No, do the math. Look up how many service/delivery centers Tesla has across the world. Then multiply by the number of employees per delivery/service center. Most of these employees are not salary.

The number of office salaried employees is way smaller than you're estimating.

Not all delivery and service people are hourly. Assuming they all are would skew the math. We have a pool in the range of 45-60k that have to cover all aspects outside of building cars, batteries, and solar panels. We have hr, accounting, legal, charging, engineering, software, etc. etc. If we were talking 30-40k, that sounds in a reasonable range to me. You could likely reduce that number lower for those that have more of a production tilt. 24k exposed to the 10% layoff risk... I could get on board with that.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Todays JobReport continues to paint that this recession isnt coming.

What's been happening have been aftershocks from the worldwide COVID-19 economic depression. The war in Ukraine hasn't helped, but I also wouldn't be surprised if Elon is wrong and there is no technical recession in the near term.

 

[growler23]

Another thanks Elon day

I'll say! Almost my entire buying ladder executed. Thanks Elon and jobs report. Now ramp my pretties, ramp like the wind!

 

[StealthP3D]

Of course that is false, the head of AI is still on sabbatical... (At least as far as I know. I thought he had a couple months left coming back in August.)

Not to mention the fact that Elon has already made it clear that high-performing employees are not necessarily subject to such an iron-clad rule.

Employees that perform at a very high level can pretty much write their own rules unless they happen to work at a very rigid and misguided company.

 

[Gigapress]

Of course that is false, the head of AI is still on sabbatical... (At least as far as I know. I thought he had a couple months left coming back in August.)

Right, sabbatical is totally different from remote work. Tesla’s impact report says Tesla employees have no limit on vacation (presumably as long they’re getting their job done).

 

[thx1139]

Not to mention the fact that Elon has already made it clear that high-performing employees are not necessarily subject to such an iron-clad rule.

Employees that perform at a very high level can pretty much write their own rules unless they happen to work at a very rigid and misguided company.

I dont know how many of the engineers want to have to plead to the CEO to allow them some flexibility with schedule. I do think Elon is a little misinformed in what the normal employee (even excellent well paid engineers) go thru in life. It has been a long time since Elon had to commute every day, take care of kids, take care of his dogs, etc. etc. He has people that do all of this day to day stuff. When do you think he was last caught in rush hour traffic? Had to take a kid to a Dr. appt. Had to take his dogs to the vet? Hell cleaned his house or made a meal. WFH gives people so much time back. I used to train into Chicago. The total commute time on most days was 1.5 hours each way and I live in a pretty close in burb. It is when you factor in getting to train station, finding a parking space, waiting for train, walking from train station downtown to office. Do so much more in that time now and brain doesnt get fried from the commute stress. Driving can even been worse.

 

[elasalle]

Looks like they don’t want 10% drop and uptick rule to kick in Monday

 

[EVNow]

This has already been settled. He’s using this as the rationale for firing salary folks who won’t come back to the office

What has been "settled" ?

We should all be clear on what is a "fact" and what is a "guess".

 

[Gigapress]

What's been happening have been aftershocks from the worldwide COVID-19 economic depression. The war in Ukraine hasn't helped, but I also wouldn't be surprised if Elon is wrong and there is no technical recession in the near term.

Also oil at $120/barrel is a pretty reliable predictor of recession, but also a reliable predictor of increased demand for Tesla’s products and services.

 

[Chenkers]

Looks like they don’t want 10% drop and uptick rule to kick in Monday

Currently it's more about a Bear vs Bull battle to try and break resistance at $700. So far the Bulls are holding up.

The 10% uptick rule would be triggered if we dip below $697.50.

 

[StealthP3D]

What's been happening have been aftershocks from the worldwide COVID-19 economic depression. The war in Ukraine hasn't helped, but I also wouldn't be surprised if Elon is wrong and there is no technical recession in the near term.

I wouldn't even interpret Elon's comment to mean he thinks a recession is necessarily coming. Elon speaks in broad strokes to bend people's thinking and to encourage events to unfold in more favorable ways. In other words, the specific details of what he says are not the important part - it's the effect his words have. And this is a very first-principles way of thinking about what to say.

IMO, he's simply using the popular narrative that there might be a recession to cut fat. I don't want to say he's trying to hold the price lower for a while longer simultaneously (for reasons that may or may not be clear) but, of course, that cannot be ruled out.

 

[EVNow]

Total global deliveries match Q1 ‘22, assuming the estimates I used on May 11th don’t need major updates (I haven’t checked since then)

What was your production estimate for Shanghai ?

I'd say EU sales will be down because Shanghai didn't produce much in May, most of which would have gone to EU, for eg.

Anyway, I just hope the market isn't as bullish as you on Q2. I want market to assume a reduction in sales and a lower Q2 EPS. Anything better would be a plus.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Currently it's more about a Bear vs Bull battle to try and break resistance at $700. So far the Bulls are holding up.

The 10% uptick rule would be triggered if we dip below $697.50.

Yeah, I'm not certain why anyone gives a hoot about the uptick rule. It seems to matter not at all.

 

[wipster]

This tweet by Elon this morning made me feel a lot better about his political leanings. Personally, I vote for the person, not the party, and it appears Elon leans that way as well:

"It is rare for me to endorse political candidates.

My political leanings are moderate, so neither fully Republican nor Democrat, which I am confident is the case for most Americans.

Executive competence is super underrated in politics – we should care about that a lot more!"

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Not all delivery and service people are hourly. Assuming they all are would skew the math. We have a pool in the range of 45-60k that have to cover all aspects outside of building cars, batteries, and solar panels. We have hr, accounting, legal, charging, engineering, software, etc. etc. If we were talking 30-40k, that sounds in a reasonable range to me. You could likely reduce that number lower for those that have more of a production tilt. 24k exposed to the 10% layoff risk... I could get on board with that.

All those delivery and service people are already "back in the office". Not to mention, there's nobody in the world(Elon included) that thinks we have too many service and delivery people.

This herd that's going to be culled is Accounting, HR, management, random office people.

 

[jerry33]

Tesla has been approved as a Texas energy producer.
Also from this article, Tesla is putting in a 250MW(h?) battery at/near Giga Austin.

Tesla Energy Texas

True, but that just happened. And it doesn't allow OnCor and friends to balance power between energy providers, which is a big point of having battery storage.

 

[petit_bateau]

It's incredibly poor judgement to say, "Good luck with the trip to the moon", when the moon mission involves American taxpayer dollars and real American astronauts with real families at home! It's actually despicable beyond words and un-American. And it's unclear what he thinks a moon trip has to do with how Elon thinks the economy looks.

If recent events can cause me to no longer self-identify as a democrat, and I no longer do, something tells me it's the democrats that have imploded, not the republicans! This is exactly opposite what I expected after the last administration, I am not happy to report this. And Elon has firmly positioned himself as a political force to be reckoned with.

Please don't use this comment to launch into political debate, I'm just making an observation that I think has a lot of relevance to Elon and his companies going forward. I am not asking whether you think my changing political identity is justified or wise, it's just a data point that I think must apply to many other life-long democrats who are similar to me.

It is something that just sorta happens when you get rich.