Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I've seen a few people suggesting Tesla may recognize new FSD revenue this quarter. What's the logic there? Now new features have rolled out to the full user base as far as I know.

You’ve spent years as a Utility consultant?

Can we take up a Misery/Hardship collection, please?

My whole career really.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If there is an earnings that has a good chance of generating major FUD... this is the one. Lots of headwinds where the results could come in low.

That said, this is also the quarter that slightly better than expectations could really set the rocket off. Markets being forward looking could say, 'Well this is as bad as it gets and they still made $2 EPS! Must mean $4 is happening soon!' That could set off a whole buying streak.

I think it will be the former, hoping for the latter.

In theory, the snap back to positive territory could be very quick. Smart money waiting to buy the dip. If TSLA price action flinches, we're off to the races again, and many will miss out.

Spoiler: Coyote or Road Runner?

 

[damonbrodie]

I've seen a few people suggesting Tesla may recognize new FSD revenue this quarter. What's the logic there? Now new features have rolled out to the full user base as far as I know.

My whole career really.

People are being hopeful for an upward trajectory and FSD rev req would help with that. I think most people here and the YTers agree that is quite unlikely.

 

[Knightshade]

I've seen a few people suggesting Tesla may recognize new FSD revenue this quarter. What's the logic there?

There isn't any. Some folks have suggested recognizing $ from beta testers but there's never been any reasonable argument as to why they'd do that, given the program has been running since late 2020 and they haven't recognized anything for it- and especially given access can be revoked at any time (and various other accounting nightmares)


They're not going to recognize any new deferred FSD revenue until Full/wide release in an entire geo (at least the US, possibly all of NA), and as someone who has been in the beta for a while now I don't see that happening anytime soon.

 

[StealthP3D]

Is this going to be the usual pump and dump on earnings? The setup looks the same - rising in anticipation, then selling the news on earnings FUD attacks, then after a couple days it's back pushing even higher (especially with volume ramps underway).

What's different this time? Does anyone think it's back to 699 this week briefly?

The one thing you need to know about the nature of the market is it loves to surprise as many people, as often as possible. That means it's unpredictable. The root word of "unpredictable" is "predict".

This is why I buy and hold.

 

[Discoducky]

I will eat ... something ... if Tesla produces more than a 500k Cybertrucks per year by 2025. So largely irrelevant to the discussion. As is the Roadster.

Do you mean run-rate? As in if the runrate exceeds 500k/yr by the end of 2025? If so, I think that will be attained by then and something will be eaten

Roadster doesn't matter anymore (Tesla was/is/will be continuing to be overwhelmed by Model Y/CT demand, no need for more demand levers like the super sexy Roadster, even though I want one desperately). The US needs 2M/yr Pickup BEVs minimum; Tesla won't stop until the demand is satiated.

The Semi matters however as does Tesla energy (power packs/walls and solar tiles/panels) to achieve sustainable energy.

 

[unk45]

The market is bigger. Fuel saving alone would make that certain. How much bigger? I went with 20% being luxury cars and Tesla having 20% market share. Granted, Tesla will very likely remain well above 20% of that market for awhile. But there IS a limit to how many expensive cars can be sold. No matter how good or luxury they are.

The iPhone example comes up often. Obviously there are changes in what most people are willing to spend money on. A lot of people can adjust to paying a $1000 for something they really want (or as it happened have it payed over 24 months). Obviously a lot less will be able to do that for something 50-100 times as expensive.

...

Why not use an auto example? The new Bentley Continental GT totally dominated all US vehicle sales in the >$150,000 segment. Before that the segment was tiny:

Bentley is king of ultraluxury sales in America: In 3 years, Rolls, Maybach left behind

Bentley is king of ultraluxury sales in America: In 3 years, Rolls, Maybach left behind

www.autoweek.com

The Tesla Model S, 3 and Y all did similar feats, by simply redefining the cost-benefit argument. The original Model S attracted astounding numbers of buyers in a wide variety of previous vehicle ownership. That has been repeated without any cessation.

That history tells us we are wasting our time trying to categorize competition for Tesla. Someday that may change, but probably not soon. In places with advanced infrastructure and major BEV adoption, such as Norway, Tesla is still supply limited. That is patently obvious by connecting the shipping movements to sales figures.

If the planet is lucky (NOT a good assumption) Tesla will begin to lose market share and have significant competition. For that to happen others will need to have equal charging infrastructure. Tesla is adding that by gradually opening Superchargers to all comers, but..that just exposes non-Tesla owners directly to Tesla. Will that end out reducing Tesla market share? Hopefully, yes. Realistically, probably not.
The primary result is likely to be higher Tesla profitability on that massive Supercharger infrastructure all over the Tesla markets.

Anyway, that is pretty much what has happened with the Bentley Continental. Even VW itself failed to sell their twin, the VW Phaeton, perhaps a stellar used car buy!...if you can endure the running cost and maintenance bills.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Do you mean run-rate? As in if the runrate exceeds 500k/yr by the end of 2025? If so, I think that will be attained by then and something will be eaten

Roadster doesn't matter anymore (Tesla was/is/will be continuing to be overwhelmed by Model Y/CT demand, no need for more demand levers like the super sexy Roadster, even though I want one desperately). The US needs 2M/yr Pickup BEVs minimum; Tesla won't stop until the demand is satiated.

The Semi matters however as does Tesla energy (power packs/walls and solar tiles/panels) to achieve sustainable energy.

I meant it as 500k produced in 2025. But pretty sure they won't even get to that runrate. The cybertruck is probably the most 'different' car anyone tried to build in many decades. There is a huge risk the ramp will be very slow. I'm sure the market is there (but pretty much in NA and maybe Australia only).

We should be very happy that they started with model Ys in Austin and not Cybertrucks.

 

[Words of HABIT]

When Cybertruck catches on, it will easily sell millions of units in the USA and Canada alone.

FTFY

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My pet peeve is that just like Boring Company will show the world what tunnels can do by building a large scale system in Las Vegas, Tesla should show the world what they can do in energy by taking over an energy company. PG&E might have worked but maybe a smaller one would be easier and still get the point across.

I think this leap is not far away. We've already seen huge projects in Australia which basically provide all the storage and 80% of the stationary grid services. But no chance it happens on the US mainland any time soon.

Hawaii would have been a great spot for Tesla to take over, but I don't think either party wants that. I'm hoping for a Puerto Rico & US Virgin Islands takeover by Tesla in combination with some other multinational grid operator.

These corrupt and inefficient grids could be taken over wholesale and rates would drop 50% inside of 4 or 5 years. Low hanging fruit.

 

[MABMAB]

The one thing you need to know about the nature of the market is it loves to surprise as many people, as often as possible. That means it's unpredictable. The root word of "unpredictable" is "predict".

This is why I buy and hold.

Horse tonky.

You predicted long term.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Maybe the market is not 4-5 million cars. Maybe it's 6-7 million. We don't know, and neither does Tesla or anyone else. Does anyone really think it's anywhere close to 20 million though?

So it would be very prudent to be prepared for a smaller vehicle being needed. Even if they spend a billion on plans, designs and preparations and in the end throws it all out the window that is better than having no backup in 2025 or so.

I would argue they already are working on a budget option, just by all the work being done on Model Y. The cost savings should become evident over the next 4 quarters as Austin ramps and margins grow even larger.

If FSD doesn't work out a year from now, you can simply strip down a Model Y to a very basic variant with no self driving hardware and sell it for $32k. That's the equivalent of a $25k gas car, and as low as Tesla should ever have to venture.

 

[StealthP3D]

I will eat ... something ... if Tesla produces more than a 500k Cybertrucks per year by 2025. So largely irrelevant to the discussion. As is the Roadster.

Cybertruck sales will be far from irrelevant even before they surpass 500,000 annually. Consider that Toyota Tundra US sales peaked at a bit over 100,000 annually and the very popular (and profitable) Toyota Tacoma peaked at 253,000 (in 2021). Tesla doesn't need 500,000/year for the Cybertruck to be a raging success that rocks the automotive press. It will be shockingly surprising to many who thought they were informed and knew what truck buyers wanted.

In about 6 years or less it will probably surpass 500,000K in annual sales and you will be glad you didn't specify what you would eat.

 

[StealthP3D]

Horse tonky.

You predicted long term.

Market is unpredictable short-term, much more predictable long term. The comment was in response to wondering how the market will respond to Q2 earnings.

 

[unk45]

,,,. Combine that with economies of scale from ramping and that's where you easily get your high margins on Megapacks.

I disagree with you because stationary storage is one area that has very capable competitors in many evolving technologies. No energy storage technology need me dominate. Molten salt? Pumped liquids? Pressure vessels? and batteries as we know them too. Megapacks have gigantic demand now, but some of those others will endure also. Numerous alternatives in batteries themselves, like BYD, are now even cheaper than are Megapacks and built for easy scalability too.

For sure we should expect TE to be highly profitable. The sources of that profitability may well be Virtual Power Plants (VPP) now being applied in multiple locations around the world, even Tesla in Texas. That also brings us to Grid Services which are proving to be highly valuable and easily scalable.

That all suggests to me that we should consider Tesla Energy as the source of scalable profitability for a long time to come rather than a specific product. Megapacks probably will not end out being the long term winner. After all, that Lathrop factory is quite flexible and can be adopted to a wide variety of product needs.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Cybertruck sales will be far from irrelevant even before they surpass 500,000 annually. Consider that Toyota Tundra US sales peaked at a bit over 100,000 annually and the very popular (and profitable) Toyota Tacoma peaked at 253,000 (in 2021). Tesla doesn't need 500,000/year for the Cybertruck to be a raging success that rocks the automotive press. It will be shockingly surprising to many who thought they were informed and knew what truck buyers wanted.

In about 6 years it will probably surpass 500,000K in annual sales and you will be glad you didn't specify what you would eat.

It will be largely irrelevant in regard to how Tesla will grow by 50% from say 4 million cars in 2025 to 6 million in 2026.

I have no doubt they can make it very profitable at much lower sales number than 500k so no worries there.

And since 2025 is 3 years away and not 6 I'm glad you seem to agree.

 

[WADan]

Wow. This is nuts!

Tesla Model X And Y Reach Mount Everest Base Camp

Two Chinese Tesla owners managed to reach the base camp of Mount Everest in their EVs. The whole journey was recorded in a video posted by Tesla China.

insideevs.com

 

[Gigapress]

I will eat ... something ... if Tesla produces more than a 500k Cybertrucks per year by 2025. So largely irrelevant to the discussion. As is the Roadster.

Yeah I was thinking beyond 2025 for high volume CT sales. Sorry, I forgot you were talking about ‘24-‘25.

Model 3 and Y can support 5 million per year I think.

 

[unk45]

I think this leap is not far away. We've already seen huge projects in Australia which basically provide all the storage and 80% of the stationary grid services. But no chance it happens on the US mainland any time soon...

Oops!

Tesla Virtual Power Plant With PG&E | Tesla Support

Participate in the Emergency Load Reduction Program (ELRP) pilot offered by Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and support the grid while also earning compensation and maintaining your energy security.

www.tesla.com

There's one is Texas too. Little by little already working in USA.
That is why I disagreed with you.

 

[WADan]

Sorry if this is old news, but competition is still coming. hahaha

New registration data shows how Tesla is doing among luxury cars and EVs; here’s what’s catching up — MarketWatch

Americans registered more Tesla Model Y SUVs than any other electric car

apple.news