Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

Nasdaq crossing the 50Day MA

 

[Gigapress]

So long as the exoskeleton is intact (no accidents), they could lower out the structural battery, upgrade the console, replace carpets, and replace any damaged seats, then polish the exterior, verify or replace the battery, then lease out a damned near new truck again. Total cost to turn it might be a few $1000.

That’s a great point I didn’t think of. The cost of refurbishment of the interior of a Tesla with a structural battery should be much less than for a traditional car design. Munro & Associates said that it took about an hour or two of work to separate the upper and lower parts of the car.

Then the same access and ergonomic benefits in original manufacturing would also apply for refurbishment. This would significantly improve the economics for Tesla doing long-term leases to a series of lessees, and also keeping robotaxis on the road for a million miles and fixing up old used cars before resale. I’ll need to try to model this sometime.

 

[jabloomf1230]

In this thread people keep suggesting that Tesla produce smaller and cheaper BEV models. My thinking is that if this ever happens it will done by a new subsidiary under a different brand.

 

[Discoducky]

In about 6 years or less it will probably surpass 500,000K in annual sales and you will be glad you didn't specify what you would eat.

The path to sustainable transportation goes straight through light trucks. 11.6M in 2021 US sales

U.S. car and truck sales 2011-2021 | Statista

In 2021, some 3.3 million automobiles, about 11.6 million light trucks, and some 451,400 heavy-duty trucks were sold to customers in the United States.

www.statista.com

We have to imagine a world where Tesla is not constrained by anything (weird I know, but should have an abundance of batteries and chips by then...hopefully) to start to predict how much run-rate they'll have at the end of 2025 for CT and Model Y.

 

[Ogre]

Even when Robotaxi is a thing, private car ownership will not decrease much.

I rent out a non-Tesla car on Turo, and let me tell you even the best customers don't leave the car clean. I'd spent between half to an hour to clean the car after every customer rental. There is no way I'd share a car with a a stranger three blocks down. So I totally don't buy the thesis that robotaxi will reduce private car ownership.

Private ownership is going to decrease a lot. Tons of people drive unreliable cars and can’t afford to make their cars reliable so they end up waiting until the car breaks to service it. Also, turning 18 and moving out of the house, a car is a massive expense unless your parents are paying for it.

I think you are vastly underestimating what a huge relief this will be on the bottom 20-30% of the population. Even into the middle class, not needing a 3rd vehicle for your teenage children will be a huge help.

Private ownership will still be big, but Robotaxi will likely be bigger.

Also, think about how the used car market is now where you can buy a $2000 beater which will break down after 6 months. It’s going to be very hard for that sort of vehicle to compete with reliable $2 rides around town.

 

[Gigapress]

The path to sustainable transportation goes straight through light trucks. 11.6M in 2021 US sales

U.S. car and truck sales 2011-2021 | Statista

In 2021, some 3.3 million automobiles, about 11.6 million light trucks, and some 451,400 heavy-duty trucks were sold to customers in the United States.

www.statista.com

We have to imagine a world where Tesla is not constrained by anything (weird I know, but should have an abundance of batteries and chips by then...hopefully) to start to predict how much run-rate they'll have at the end of 2025 for CT and Model Y.

Note for those who don’t know: “Light trucks” in the US is defined by EPA rules and it includes SUVs with a truck chassis and vans too. It’s not just pickups, which are actually merely about 20-25% of the overall light truck market in America, with 2-3M annual sales in recent years.

Cybertruck is mostly a pickup truck but it meets the criteria of many customers buying SUVs and minivans so it’s really going after the whole light truck segment. Cybertruck will probably also expand the light truck market because it’ll be more reliable, better overall, and doesn’t come with the environmental guilt.

Light truck - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[aubreymcfato]

This is my whole reason for investing in Tesla in the first place. The car business is good on its own, but energy storage is where it's at.

Tesla Energy is possibly the most underrated investment of all time. And Wall Street doesn't even try to cover it.

As long as the future of storage is in the form of a battery cell, Tesla will dominate the market. I used to think other non-cell storage schemes had a chance to compete. I don't think so any more.

I agree with the excitement regarding Megapacks and Powerpacks, less so about the Powerwall. We've seen in this thread few days ago that Powerwalls are priced at a premium, so residential storage is going to other brands (LG for example).
We've discussed this already but unfortunately but AFAIK no one has clear data on TE, so much of it is speculation.

 

[jerry33]

The idea of long term leases or leasing used cars is super intriguing. Particularly on a vehicle like the Cybertruck where Tesla could replace/ service nearly everything themselves. So long as the exoskeleton is intact (no accidents), they could lower out the structural battery, upgrade the console, replace carpets, and replace any damaged seats, then polish the exterior, verify or replace the battery, then lease out a damned near new truck again. Total cost to turn it might be a few $1000.

Right now Tesla’s leasing program isn’t a good idea for consumers, but maybe in the future Tesla will assign a more reasonable residual value to their cars and it should be a lot more affordable to lease one.

Mostly agree but leasing is never a good idea for consumers because life-events happen which change the amount of car use, or the ability to make the lease payments. This typically causes the overall cost of the lease to go up substantially or the loss of the car. If leases ever get to be flexible then that’s different.

 

[jerry33]

That is good to hear. Back in 2018, i had trouble going from dallas to houston in a model X with poorly functioning chargers.

In 2015 I had no problems going from Dallas to Seattle—although the route was longer than it would be today.

 

[bkp_duke]

Since just opinions are being given.
In my socio-economic level taking a taxi was considered a luxury. You don't have to be around the public, which is one of the three reasons mass transit does not work.
The two others are there is no infrastructure for a true physical "Mass" transit system, and the inconvenient time schedules. A person has to first make it to a pick up point, WAIT(!), and then when at the end of mass transit line they have another leg of the trip to complete.
So my mind screamed, "NO." If my fat butt can walk out the door, sit down in some quiet place, and then end up directly outside where I want then you just made my day like no one else could...especially Not public transport nor me driving my own car... or a regular taxi with a person I do not ever care to talk with or trust driving the car.
I firmly see robo-taxis being embraced by all us ants. It will be the first time since prom night we get to be treated so good by the mass transportation industry... actually by anyone that is willing to take us anywhere.
AND at a fraction of a taxi or personal automobile.

We will agree to disagree then. Work patterns here in the USA are very "pulsatile". Peak demand for transport in the morning and afternoon for people commuting to work. I just don't ever see the fleet getting that large, and for that reason there will be things like "demand charges (a la Uber)" which will either upset people, or result in insufficient supply.

Additionally, you are never going to get people with 100+ mile per day commutes (tradesmen, etc.) to pack up their tools and hop in a robotaxi. This part is a byproduct of a larger country, and I expect this would be far less than smaller countries with shorter commutes.

Finally, you have people like me and my family that just have to leave on the drop of a hat (my wife runs a mobile business with same day appointments). We use Uber services when vacationing if possible, but for primary usage it's a no-go from the start.

 

[unk45]

In this thread people keep suggesting that Tesla produce smaller and cheaper BEV models. My thinking is that if this ever happens it will done by a new subsidiary under a different brand.

That really isn't necessary, although it certainly isn't unusual.
The Mercedes Benz car line, for example ranges from ~$30,000 for the A200 to $2.72 million for the AMG One. The same brand also is applied to Trucks of all sizes and busses of every variety.
Clearly Tesla could easily offer almost any category of vehicle without polluting their brand.

 

[bkp_duke]

I agree with the excitement regarding Megapacks and Powerpacks, less so about the Powerwall. We've seen in this thread few days ago that Powerwalls are priced at a premium, so residential storage is going to other brands (LG for example).
We've discussed this already but unfortunately but AFAIK no one has clear data on TE, so much of it is speculation.

Those "other brands" have shown some pretty serious limitations, or pricing that is still not competitive.

Example - I live in a neighborhood that has 4 times in the past 18 months had prolonged (> 6 hours) power outages for "high wind" and fire risk.

In that time, in a neighborhood of about 50 homes, 24 of those homes have had powerwalls installed. These are people that are just not going to tolerate repeated power outages. ONE, and only ONE, went with a competitor (and honestly that's because the guy worked for the company).

Pricing for the powerwalls was better, and more importantly since these are larger homes, the ability to "stack" more than one unit was seamless. It was not with some of the competing solutions, or the stacking limitation didn't get to a high enough power output, or storage capacity.

 

[StealthP3D]

People here keep talking about how robotaxi will replace private ownership for most autos. Here in the US, I'm calling BS on that claim. Judgement is still out on other countries where private auto ownership is much lower.

I'm not expecting robotaxis to replace most private cars in the next decade or so but it will probably make a nice dent in car ownership rates.

My point was that robotaxis are very different from mass transit in that you can ride in a private cabin, not smashed in with hordes of unknown strangers. I'm not sure it makes sense to project similar adoption rate to mass transit or even use it as a comparison since they are so different. Robotaxi will be more like an unbelievably cheap taxi that is far more reliable than taxis today. I almost never call a taxi when I want one because I don't know how long it will take. So I wouldn't compare them to taxi adoption either, robotaxi will be a new form of affordable transport that will almost certainly have much higher adoption rates than existing taxis and mass transit but probably lower than private car ownership (except perhaps in large cities).

 

[Beltsbear]

In this thread people keep suggesting that Tesla produce smaller and cheaper BEV models. My thinking is that if this ever happens it will done by a new subsidiary under a different brand.

Tesla will absolutely not do that. Tesla is not getting into the badge engineering game and no reason to dilute its reputation.

 

[Electroman]

Wow. This is nuts!

Tesla Model X And Y Reach Mount Everest Base Camp

Two Chinese Tesla owners managed to reach the base camp of Mount Everest in their EVs. The whole journey was recorded in a video posted by Tesla China.

insideevs.com

Can someone tell me what is the challenge here? I understand charging is a challenge. Not sure how he managed to charge the last 200 miles closer to his destination climbing up the mountain.

ICE cars are not efficient and lose power at high altitudes. But the fact there are passable roads up to base camp means ICE vehicles were used to build those roads. So I don't quire understand the statement, 'only electric cars can get here'.

 

[StealthP3D]

Me, personally, I like energy independence. I know that's not an option for everyone, but the utilities here in San Diego county have the highest rates in the nation (now surpassing Hawaii). There is no rational justification for prices here to be 5X what they are in middle-america. The grid is not substantially "better" - as is evidenced by our frequent power shutoffs for high wind.

That's ridiculous! You people need to elect a new utilities commission that will actually work for the people! Someone is making too much money! It wouldn't surprise me if the problems can be traced back to Enron and like companies and the lobbying that was done, etc.

 

[lafrisbee]

We will agree to disagree then. Work patterns here in the USA are very "pulsatile". Peak demand for transport in the morning and afternoon for people commuting to work. I just don't ever see the fleet getting that large, and for that reason there will be things like "demand charges (a la Uber)" which will either upset people, or result in insufficient supply.

Additionally, you are never going to get people with 100+ mile per day commutes (tradesmen, etc.) to pack up their tools and hop in a robotaxi. This part is a byproduct of a larger country, and I expect this would be far less than smaller countries with shorter commutes.

Finally, you have people like me and my family that just have to leave on the drop of a hat (my wife runs a mobile business with same day appointments). We use Uber services when vacationing if possible, but for primary usage it's a no-go from the start.

This ain't the place but...
The only point you make that has any truth is the overload of "robo-taxi" system during "Pulsatile" demand of work schedules. And then it doesn't. Private ownership transportation is working with this "pulsatile" demand. But robo-taxis improves that aspect.
First, the robo-taxis will be safer and less costly.
Second, I see robo-taxis having a "mini" public bus aspect for "pulsatile" situations. And this will be incentivised by lower user cost. People that work at the same company can use an app that will coordinate picking them up and taking them back home every day with other workers at the company. A bus that provides Door to door.
Third, The 100 mile commute is such a small fraction of the issue. Most travel encompasses short trips... school, bar, friends, shopping, doctors. But even considering the long commute. That is a huge amount of wasted time... 100 miles (2x), that's like 3 to 4 hours a day wasted. A robo-taxi would beat the price of owning a commuter car, and even if it wouldn't what would you pay to have 3-4 hours of your day changed from the aggravation of driving to and from work to being able to do work, or enjoy yourself?
My favorite use? lemme put the kayaks in the bed of a cyber(nota)truck, take em out at the put in point, go down the river 20 miles, and have a cyber(nota)truck meet me at the take out point and drive my sore, tired body back to the house. (Same thing can be done at multiple varying scenarios. Day or multi-day hikes or bike rides, going to multiple Amusement parks and being picked up at the last one. Going to sporting events and not paying parking or having to cram inside the drunk bus or train to get home. Cheap Cheap Cheap, AND a luxury experience compared to the alternatives.
And that's all i got to say about the willingness of the American Public when it comes to whether they will adopt the Robo-taxi.

 

[bkp_duke]

That's ridiculous! You people need to elect a new utilities commission that will actually work for the people! Someone is making too much money! It wouldn't surprise me if the problems can be traced back to Enron and like companies and the lobbying that was done, etc.

I can't reply to this in an honest manner . . . it would be considered a political post. CA has their issues, but the utility commission is all controlled by one party, and donors to those individuals are heavily from the utilities (all public record - this is not my "read" or "opinion" on anything). PM me if you want to deep dive on this.

 

[UncaNed]

And circling back to the mission....it's not about Tesla itself replacing as many ICE vehicles as possible, it's about forcing the entire marketplace to transition.

Best way to force an entire market to move is to eat profit share until their boards all cave.

Look at the pressure Tesla is putting on Honda and Toyota. They must move now for they're dead. I would argue the whole market is better off if we leave the $25k segment to these players who can scale as rapidly as Tesla when they want to.

Actually the mission is best served by displacing as much diesel and gasoline as possible, so Tesla needs to prioritize semi trucks over Cybertrucks, but favoring customers that will run those semis the most miles per day to maximum immediate fossil fuel displacement.

 

[wtlloyd]

A couple years ago there were Tesla cars in Lhasa, the capitol of Tibet,
A quick check shows:

Tesla Superchargers in Kazakhstan | Tesla

Schedule a Tesla test drive at a time and date that is convenient for you.

www.tesla.com

Tesla launches Yunnan-Tibet electric vehicle supercharging line - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

When that is already happening it is only logical that other parts of the Himalayas including Nepal must come soon. There is something quite wondrous about all this.

Within my adult life the first jet flights came to Nepal, I was on one of the first Air India flights. Not too long later in Lhasa there was little traffic of any kind. Now there are Tesla drivers actually driving to these places.
Personally I'm thrilled and amazed. If I were a few decades younger I'd be doing that stuff myself. All I ever did was Paris-Tehran, paved roads all the way even in 1970's. Perhaps the least practical way to take delivery of my friend's new Peugeot 404.

Back in 2012 it was really challenging to make road trips in a Tesla. Now one can, it seems, go anywhere. It's only a matter of time for a Tesla to win Paris-Dakar.

I love Tesla adventures!

I had a '65 Peugeot 404 and can truthfully say it was the coolest car I've ever owned, and the only one I ever loved. You could hand crank it!