Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

GDP -0.9% while customer spending increased +1%. Unemployment rate at an all time low. It is a weird technical recession. TSLA jumped greener on the news, market expecting the fed become less hawkish and have some dovish future hikes? Hard to predict market reaction. I guess market was pricing in something worst than a mild technical recession. Now we will see if the hikes increase will eventually cause some people to default their mortgages of houses paid at the highest. This will be phase 2 to see if we get into deeper economy contraction.

Honestly it is the weirdest recession I have ever experienced. I have been through several. It is the most non recession recession ever.

 

[thx1139]

I'm still surprised we didn't see a bigger jump post earnings. I assumed that everyone was waiting for what they expected would be a sizable dip to jump back in. I deployed almost all reserves prior to earnings and the rest the day after.

Now we need to moon so I can pay my 2021 tax bill.

I expected the opposite. I just see so much lack of knowledge about Tesla in the finance industry. Lack of knowing what was happening in Shanghai. Lack of understanding how new factories burn cash while they ramp. etc. I expected the FUD to take over.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The real question becomes when will green hydrogen be cheaper to produce than gray/brown?

No, the real question is when will protons be cheaper to produce, transport, store, and burn than electrons generated from wind and solar. HINT: never.

 

[wtlloyd]

Regarding the hydrogen component, specifically "brown" hydrogen, it's inclusion was likely the requirement for Senator Manchin support.

How Manchin used politics to protect his family coal company

Selling scrap coal has earned Sen. Joe Manchin millions of dollars over three decades, and he has used his political positions to protect the fuel from laws and regulations that threaten his family's business.

www.politico.com

Senator Manchin will stay "bought".

 

[ZachF]

Also likely to be short lived. Employment numbers are simply to good. To many businesses really cant cut workers or they will make customers very unhappy. At least around me signs of labor shortage still everywhere.

The inverse of the employment numbers is terrible wage and productivity numbers, which are both declining at rates not seen for many decades. TBH, The economy isn’t going to improve much until that changes.

 

[Krugerrand]

US only, remember. Plenty of demand elsewhere to consume Q4 production. There is no short-term demand problem.

Hmm…at first that last sentence seemed unhelpful, but on further examination perhaps something was left unsaid but implied - *finger hovering over buy button*

 

[henchman24]

Yes, GDP -0.9% versus expected +0.5.
What I do not understand is why SPY and QQQ both jumped higher on that news ?

The expectation was worse... but more than that the drop was really because of inventories. This won't be called a recession.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552640656203550723

 

[Singuy]

The inverse of the employment numbers is terrible wage and productivity numbers, which are both declining at rates not seen for many decades. TBH, The economy isn’t going to improve much until that changes.

We just need productive numbers to go up as supply chain ease. Terrible wages are good for inflation. You don't want that number to skyrocket. We had years of terrible wage and high productivity, hence an inflation rate that was 2%, way lower than anyone have predicted decades ago. Also the source of record profits.

Automation and computers replacing human workers and increasing productivity, got to love it.

 

[ZachF]

Honestly it is the weirdest recession I have ever experienced. I have been through several. It is the most non recession recession ever.

Being TSLA investors and EV owners has shielded most of TMC from much of the current bad economic forces, but ultimately there is a recession because wages are declining at a 4-5% pace, the most since Carter. This is why economic sentiment is so low.

 

[MP3Mike]

The way it stands now, the Model 3 LR doesn’t qualify for the new tax credit. I wonder if Tesla is going to re-introduce a Mid-range version or find some other way to bring the price down to under $55K.

Well, as of right now there is no "new tax credit", there is a proposed one that will likely change many times before it becomes real, if it ever does.

Given Elon's distaste of tax credits to support the market they may not make changes just to qualify for the tax credit. (That way shorts can't say the tax credit is funding Tesla.)

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Honestly it is the weirdest recession I have ever experienced. I have been through several. It is the most non recession recession ever.

To me a recession is when companies are cutting jobs, businesses/consumers spending slashed, and unemployment through the roof. I still believe the aftermath of COVID is what hiding the true recession feelings. We have good part of the population retired early and/or died therefore keeping unemployment way down. I hope we truly can get the supply logistics under control so we see a sustained lower prices or a large part of the population will be really hurt.

 

[ZachF]

Terrible wages are good for inflation.

Wage growth is actually fairly high in nominal terms, it’s bad in real inflation adjusted terms. And it’s bad because productivity growth is poor.

We need productivity growth. Honestly productivity growth is the number one indicator of advancement.

 

[Artful Dodger]

LOL SP got to within a dime of $850, then stomped on hard by MMs:

Yeah, its all about the TSLA Options market, not 'Smart money'. But we'll see who has the greater resolve. There's some whales in this fight too.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[henchman24]

LOL SP got to within a dime of $850, then stomped on hard by MMs:

View attachment 833772

Yeah, its all about the TSLA Options market, not 'Smart money'. But we'll see who has the greater resolve. There's some whales in this fight too.

Cheers to the Longs!

850 is going to be a major wall the next two weeks and I certainly don't see it happening on a day where the Nasdaq should be 1-2% down. If it does, that's an enormous sign. Need some news or overall market strength.

 

[wtlloyd]

Possible data point (or not - things change seemingly on whim) - My model Y configuration - long range, 19" wheels, 5 seat, silver metallic color, tow hitch, no FSD delivery date has jumped overnight - from Jan-Apr 2023 when I ordered (date still shows in app) to Apr-Jul 2023 when that configuration is set up on the order page.

Demand is up on the news? You decide.
But this IS why I jumped in line, I am expecting further moderate price hikes from Tesla in August. Rightly so, they should take the money for as long as they can and put it into expansion.

(I will be adding FSD, but will pay for it outright, it's a fair chunk of change that might as well grab some CC miles. They may raise FSD price before delivery, I'll deal with it if/when).

 

[Mengy]

850 is going to be a major wall the next two weeks and I certainly don't see it happening on a day where the Nasdaq should be 1-2% down. If it does, that's an enormous sign. Need some news or overall market strength.

The split vote is next week, and from there until the actual date of the split I think we'll see the SP run up as shorts prepare for the split.

After the split they'll likely run the SP down again, lol.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

LOL SP got to within a dime of $850, then stomped on hard by MMs:

View attachment 833773

Yeah, its all about the TSLA Options market, not 'Smart money'. But we'll see who has the greater resolve. There's some whales in this fight too.

Cheers to the Longs!

This is one of the more impressive stomping ive seen..... oh well..... time for some breakfast.

 

[Artful Dodger]

850 is going to be a major wall the next two weeks and I certainly don't see it happening on a day where the Nasdaq should be 1-2% down. If it does, that's an enormous sign. Need some news or overall market strength.

Well, 1st we have to close the gap to 827.78 (yesterday's high).

Whoops! Done @ 09:54 ET.

 

[henchman24]

The split vote is next week, and from there until the actual date of the split I think we'll see the SP run up as shorts prepare for the split.

After the split they'll likely run the SP down again, lol.

I don't think we'll run until Tesla formally announces the split, which could be next week... or it could be a couple weeks later.

 

[elasalle]

AI day ... are we gonna see anything like this ... guess not.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552305083475341313