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This is going to make Q4 difficult. Not that Tesla cannot setup incentives for people to take delivery in Q4, but if they raise prices again it is going to look bad. (Unless they do it tonight or something). But Tesla does nothing, it is a $7500 incentive for people to delay delivery.
US only, remember. Plenty of demand elsewhere to consume Q4 production. There is no short-term demand problem.
 
Thanks for posting that @willow_hiller

Understandably our thoughts naturally turn to Tesla and which EV vehicles might be eligible. But this post from @StarFoxisDown! in combination with the post from @willow_hiller should bring most of us back around to what much of this bill might be about given the years of discussion by so many on TMC on this subject:

Just saw it pointed out that this could be a huge win for Tesla when it comes to the Semi

$40,000 credit or 30% of the cost of the vehicle, whichever is less.

That would be a very big win for Tesla. If this passes, Tesla needs to adjust the price of the Semi immediately. It was already a steal for any company using it considering the price of gas

The Devils are likely in the details. "Section 13401 removes the cap on EV credits and makes hydrogen fuel cell vehicles eligible. " (note no mention of 'Green Hydrogen-only' and pricing limits that are restrictive to the most efficient and subsequently cleanest 'made in America' EV's). Is anyone surprised at this. And the real 'Not So Funny-but Really Sneaky' part of this is that while everyone favoring a future that still uses cheap fossil fuels will soon be angrily shouting about all the new EV taxes imposed them, we might all soon be taxed to preserve and grow the natural gas and coal industries to accelerate the Grey (natural gas-generated) and Brown (coal generated) Hydrogen industries and all of the fleet industries that will be supporting over-the-road hydrogen transportation. Machiavellian Politics at its finest! "Hey, look over there.........it's their fault this is happening."

BTW, isn't there both coal and a Toyota plant in Manchin's home state? And hasn't a hydrogen powered semi (that could of course be powered from Brown Hydrogen) been a goal of Toyota for some time?


And hasn't the Northeast been rather quietly pushing for a hydrogen-powered corridor for sometime already?


And haven't there been a 'fleet' of articles (pun intended) written about different semi manufacturers proposing new hydrogen semi trucks very recently? (Daimler, Hyundai, Volvo, etc)

I hereby propose we now refer to the latest form of the BBB bill as the 'Build Back Browner' bill.

Yes, new taxes are coming. EV's will be the scapegoat and the Existing Paradigm will be the winner once again. Yet while this might now be able to be conveniently blamed on Manchin, let's not lose sight that this administration, and some of the most power Democrats have been arguably lock-step with the Republicans in unwinding most of the good in the original Green New Deal over the past couple years. It is simply a red-herring when any media source on either side of the aisle still refers to it as the Green New Deal, as it has been stripped of so much of its original intentions opportunities for existing grid owners to control the future grid and to find a path for continued expansion of our fossil fuel industries in the process - particularly natural gas and coal. Other discussions on TMC over the past handful of years that seem relevant to the new version of the Build Back Browner Bill IIRC included Pelosi's refusal to discuss the details of the Green New Deal in its original form, Gov Newsom's proposal to use Utah natural gas on the California grid following LA's successful bid of $0.019/kWh for a grid-scale solar project, and of course the previous administration's relentless efforts to keep 'Clean Coal' in the news. And of course it was only a couple weeks ago that Elon once again hit back at Bill Gates over his relentless push towards a hydrogen-powered future. As usual, with a little patience we sometimes find that Elon was perhaps in-the-know about debates at a higher level, and simply reminding the rest of the world what might be going on behind the scenes - you know, those 'Devils' that are in the Details:


p.s. Leaving this reference here for a little bit more on Brown and Grey Hydrogen if anyone is interested.........and we all should be since >90% of US hydrogen comes from fossil fuel sources and the 35% methane emissions from Grey Hydrogen production is 100x more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2 is.

 
Thanks for posting that @willow_hiller

Understandably our thoughts naturally turn to Tesla and which EV vehicles might be eligible. But this post from @StarFoxisDown! in combination with the post from @willow_hiller should bring most of us back around to what much of this bill might be about given the years of discussion by so many on TMC on this subject:



The Devils are likely in the details. "Section 13401 removes the cap on EV credits and makes hydrogen fuel cell vehicles eligible. " (note no mention of 'Green Hydrogen-only' and pricing limits that are restrictive to the most efficient and subsequently cleanest 'made in America' EV's). Is anyone surprised at this. And the real 'Not So Funny-but Really Sneaky' part of this is that while everyone favoring a future that still uses cheap fossil fuels will soon be angrily shouting about all the new EV taxes imposed them, we might all soon be taxed to preserve and grow the natural gas and coal industries to accelerate the Grey (natural gas-generated) and Brown (coal generated) Hydrogen industries and all of the fleet industries that will be supporting over-the-road hydrogen transportation. Machiavellian Politics at its finest! "Hey, look over there.........it's their fault this is happening."

BTW, isn't there both coal and a Toyota plant in Manchin's home state? And hasn't a hydrogen powered semi (that could of course be powered from Brown Hydrogen) been a goal of Toyota for some time?


And hasn't the Northeast been rather quietly pushing for a hydrogen-powered corridor for sometime already?


And haven't there been a 'fleet' of articles (pun intended) written about different semi manufacturers proposing new hydrogen semi trucks very recently? (Daimler, Hyundai, Volvo, etc)

I hereby propose we now refer to the latest form of the BBB bill as the 'Build Back Browner' bill.

Yes, new taxes are coming. EV's will be the scapegoat and the Existing Paradigm will be the winner once again. Yet while this might now be able to be conveniently blamed on Manchin, let's not lose sight that this administration, and some of the most power Democrats have been arguably lock-step with the Republicans in unwinding most of the good in the original Green New Deal over the past couple years. It is simply a red-herring when any media source on either side of the aisle still refers to it as the Green New Deal, as it has been stripped of so much of its original intentions opportunities for existing grid owners to control the future grid and to find a path for continued expansion of our fossil fuel industries in the process - particularly natural gas and coal. Other discussions on TMC over the past handful of years that seem relevant to the new version of the Build Back Browner Bill IIRC included Pelosi's refusal to discuss the details of the Green New Deal in its original form, Gov Newsom's proposal to use Utah natural gas on the California grid following LA's successful bid of $0.019/kWh for a grid-scale solar project, and of course the previous administration's relentless efforts to keep 'Clean Coal' in the news. And of course it was only a couple weeks ago that Elon once again hit back at Bill Gates over his relentless push towards a hydrogen-powered future. As usual, with a little patience we sometimes find that Elon was perhaps in-the-know about debates at a higher level, and simply reminding the rest of the world what might be going on behind the scenes - you know, those 'Devils' that are in the Details:


p.s. Leaving this reference here for a little bit more on Brown and Grey Hydrogen if anyone is interested.........and we all should be since >90% of US hydrogen comes from fossil fuel sources and the 35% methane emissions from Grey Hydrogen production is 100x more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2 is.

hindenberg.jpg
 
Thanks for posting that @willow_hiller

Understandably our thoughts naturally turn to Tesla and which EV vehicles might be eligible. But this post from @StarFoxisDown! in combination with the post from @willow_hiller should bring most of us back around to what much of this bill might be about given the years of discussion by so many on TMC on this subject:



The Devils are likely in the details. "Section 13401 removes the cap on EV credits and makes hydrogen fuel cell vehicles eligible. " (note no mention of 'Green Hydrogen-only' and pricing limits that are restrictive to the most efficient and subsequently cleanest 'made in America' EV's). Is anyone surprised at this. And the real 'Not So Funny-but Really Sneaky' part of this is that while everyone favoring a future that still uses cheap fossil fuels will soon be angrily shouting about all the new EV taxes imposed them, we might all soon be taxed to preserve and grow the natural gas and coal industries to accelerate the Grey (natural gas-generated) and Brown (coal generated) Hydrogen industries and all of the fleet industries that will be supporting over-the-road hydrogen transportation. Machiavellian Politics at its finest! "Hey, look over there.........it's their fault this is happening."

BTW, isn't there both coal and a Toyota plant in Manchin's home state? And hasn't a hydrogen powered semi (that could of course be powered from Brown Hydrogen) been a goal of Toyota for some time?


And hasn't the Northeast been rather quietly pushing for a hydrogen-powered corridor for sometime already?


And haven't there been a 'fleet' of articles (pun intended) written about different semi manufacturers proposing new hydrogen semi trucks very recently? (Daimler, Hyundai, Volvo, etc)

I hereby propose we now refer to the latest form of the BBB bill as the 'Build Back Browner' bill.

Yes, new taxes are coming. EV's will be the scapegoat and the Existing Paradigm will be the winner once again. Yet while this might now be able to be conveniently blamed on Manchin, let's not lose sight that this administration, and some of the most power Democrats have been arguably lock-step with the Republicans in unwinding most of the good in the original Green New Deal over the past couple years. It is simply a red-herring when any media source on either side of the aisle still refers to it as the Green New Deal, as it has been stripped of so much of its original intentions opportunities for existing grid owners to control the future grid and to find a path for continued expansion of our fossil fuel industries in the process - particularly natural gas and coal. Other discussions on TMC over the past handful of years that seem relevant to the new version of the Build Back Browner Bill IIRC included Pelosi's refusal to discuss the details of the Green New Deal in its original form, Gov Newsom's proposal to use Utah natural gas on the California grid following LA's successful bid of $0.019/kWh for a grid-scale solar project, and of course the previous administration's relentless efforts to keep 'Clean Coal' in the news. And of course it was only a couple weeks ago that Elon once again hit back at Bill Gates over his relentless push towards a hydrogen-powered future. As usual, with a little patience we sometimes find that Elon was perhaps in-the-know about debates at a higher level, and simply reminding the rest of the world what might be going on behind the scenes - you know, those 'Devils' that are in the Details:


p.s. Leaving this reference here for a little bit more on Brown and Grey Hydrogen if anyone is interested.........and we all should be since >90% of US hydrogen comes from fossil fuel sources and the 35% methane emissions from Grey Hydrogen production is 100x more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2 is.

The real question becomes when will green hydrogen be cheaper to produce than gray/brown?
 
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Yes, GDP -0.9% versus expected +0.5.
What I do not understand is why SPY and QQQ both jumped higher on that news ?
Some were expecting more like %1.6 negative no? This also gives more pressure to the FED to back down and I figure a light recession was more than priced in.
 
Yes, GDP -0.9% versus expected +0.5.
What I do not understand is why SPY and QQQ both jumped higher on that news ?
They have their shallow recession that will be short lived.

Whether we have another 12 months from now is for another day.

Many people betting that inflation will moderate and rate hikes will shrink and stop.
 
If I remember correctly, they had a price reduced locked-down version in Canada, but they didn't allow unlocking...
Likely for legal concerns.

Yes you are right there was a $44,990 CAD version with 150km range to make the Model 3 qualify for the federal $5,000 incentive which required the basic trim of the vehicle to be below $45,000 MSRP.

However, this is only something I expect Tesla will do if demand tapers off and wait lists come back in the 2-3 months waiting period.

Not with the crazy high actual demand.
 
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Yes, GDP -0.9% versus expected +0.5.
What I do not understand is why SPY and QQQ both jumped higher on that news ?
GDP -0.9% while customer spending increased +1%. Unemployment rate at an all time low. It is a weird technical recession. TSLA jumped greener on the news, market expecting the fed become less hawkish and have some dovish future hikes? Hard to predict market reaction. I guess market was pricing in something worst than a mild technical recession. Now we will see if the hikes increase will eventually cause some people to default their mortgages of houses paid at the highest. This will be phase 2 to see if we get into deeper economy contraction.
 
I wonder if the start date for the EV tax credit will be modified to make it retro-active. Tesla has enough demand that they can probably still sell all their cars in Q4 (with major juggling of buyers on the wait list), but other manufacturers could have a disastrous quarter if most of their buyers are waiting until Q1.
 
And here we are 1/3 below ATH with the wind at our backs and Austin/Berlin ramping. EPS rocketing up as projected and PE compression now having gotten way ahead of itself.

With a split and an earnings deluge looming, when does one buy in or buy back in? Awfully small window between today and the certainty of $12-15 EPS five short months from now.

ATH needs to be achieved before that $13.5 2022 earnings figure is printed, no? After all, that's just looking back and apparently the market is forward looking.....
 
And here we are 1/3 below ATH with the wind at our backs and Austin/Berlin ramping. EPS rocketing up as projected and PE compression now having gotten way ahead of itself.

With a split and an earnings deluge looming, when does one buy in or buy back in? Awfully small window between today and the certainty of $12-15 EPS five short months from now.

ATH needs to be achieved before that $13.5 2022 earnings figure is printed, no? After all, that's just looking back and apparently the market is forward looking.....
I'm still surprised we didn't see a bigger jump post earnings. I assumed that everyone was waiting for what they expected would be a sizable dip to jump back in. I deployed almost all reserves prior to earnings and the rest the day after.

Now we need to moon so I can pay my 2021 tax bill. 😵