Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Isn't it their job to know what they're voting for? Do you think they actually even read the bill...not to mention understand the subtleties? Do they have to pass it to learn what's in it? You shouldn't lower your expectations to the level of incompetence that is so common...that's how things keep getting worse vs better wrt our representation!

Unfortunately, that's how the sausage is made. Do you really think our senators can possibly understand the impact of the EV tax credit? Us EV fanatics on this board can't even figure it out. And even if they did understand it, would they be willing to kill the bill just because the EV tax credit part is a little screwed up?

The system for writing bills is really awful. But that's the fault of everyone in congress and not just the ones who voted for this particular piece of legislation.

 

[MP3Mike]

But why is noone talking about opening the SuC Network, benefiting from incentives there as well? - is this another law or part of this one?

Opening the Supercharger network probably doesn't qualify for anything. (Part of the problem, as I understand it, is that V2 Superchargers don't meet the minimum requirements.) Opening a existing V3 site might qualify, but probably only for the cost of adding the CCS cables, not the original install costs.

Expanding the network might qualify. But isn't the money that is currently allotted for installing EV chargers being doled out directly to the states, based on a plan that they have to submit in the next ~month, and then they have to spend the money. (They could hire Tesla to install the chargers, but somehow I doubt that is going to happen in very many, if any, states.)

 

[growler23]

Hey governments, STOP. FUNDING. OIL & GAS.

(argh!!!!!!)

(This goes for Canada as well as USA, BTW)

I agree with the sentiment roughly 1000%, but our democracy doesn't make that easy at all. It may even be the political equivalent of breaking the laws of Thermodynamics. When that changes, we will have truly won our way to the Transition.
I found this summary on the topic helpful:

Why Are Fossil Fuel Subsidies So Hard To Eliminate

TL;DR Because politically, they are: "a crashed tractor trailer of razor wire, soaked in oil and sewage, rolled in jagged glass, and sprayed with arsenic"

 

[insaneoctane]

It was part of the battery day presentation.

View attachment 838071

Yes, but Elon also just said that Tesla won't be selling $39K Cybertrucks like they advertised...prices and strategies change...

 

[Usain]

Would this be EPA or Transportation writing these rules?

I'm not sure why I said EPA. Here is what the bill says:

(B) DEADLINE FOR PROPOSED GUIDANCE.—Not later than December 31, 2022, the Secretary shall issue proposed guidance with respect to the requirements under this subsection.

I have no idea which "Secretary" it's talking about. Interior (EPA)? Transportation? Energy?

But anyway, good luck to whoever has to figure this out by December.

 

[SO16]

Karen has a thread about the bill…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556659404698779650

 

[hobbes]

View attachment 838076

Above is the cash spent on warranty, not the amount reserved.

As an investor, great to see the quick decline in warranty cash spent per vehicle. As a promoter, the fact that Tesla has the second lowest cost for warranty service (top is Toyota) helps back the reliability claim.

Did you make this plot? What´s your source?

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556372385342885890

 

[insaneoctane]

...Mustang Mach E as a station wagon is just really strange to begin with.

I always felt calling the EV that Ford calls Mustang Mach E was a desperate misuse of Ford's limited, but rich (albeit ICE) vehicle history. Mach and Mustang had certain enthusiast connotations that had nothing to do with any SUV or CUV. How appropriate that the Mustang Mace E is actually a station wagon! If you're gonna mess up a name, mess it up real good!

 

[hobbes]

Karen has a thread about the bill…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556659404698779650

Karen writes:

The key question is, "What is a dealer?" And that's not left up to the states, but defined in the amendment: anyone licensed anywhere in the US to sell vehicles. By all means, Tesla should be considered a "dealer" under this amendment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556659450005671937

 

[Ogre]

Short summary of the EV incentive/ rebate portion of the new legislation.

• Tesla is going to be the biggest beneficiary.
• **or** very few Teslas (maybe none?) will qualify for the incentive without changing the way Tesla sources materials soon.
• Almost no non-Teslas qualify due to sourcing.
• A big percentage of the people who can afford EVs do not qualify for the rebate.
• Rivian/ Lucid & all the "Luxe" brands no longer qualify but are scrambling to lock in the incentive for existing sales.
• It's likely a fair number of PHEVs will be easier to make compliant since they have relatively tiny batteries.

So I can see why Whole Mars would be frustrated.

My big question here is where companies like Arcimoto and Aptera stand in this because while this won't have a huge impact on Tesla, it will have a huge impact on the little guys.


For what it's worth, I suspect the incentives will be significantly more impactful on lower end vehicle sales. Moving the price of an Arcimoto FUV from $17,000 to effectively $10,000 would be huge. They could potentially increase their base price by $2,000 and deliver a nice town vehicle for $12,000 while increasing profits. That would be a huge win.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Dude. The national debt is over $30T. The US has given plenty of money out without getting money back.

You mean like how they gave $GM billions and will never see a penny of it?

 

[hitchhiker]

Short summary of the EV incentive/ rebate portion of the new legislation.

• Tesla is going to be the biggest beneficiary.
• **or** very few Teslas (maybe none?) will qualify for the incentive without changing the way Tesla sources materials soon.
• Almost no non-Teslas qualify due to sourcing.
• A big percentage of the people who can afford EVs do not qualify for the rebate.
• Rivian/ Lucid & all the "Luxe" brands no longer qualify but are scrambling to lock in the incentive for existing sales.
• It's likely a fair number of PHEVs will be easier to make compliant since they have relatively tiny batteries.

So I can see why Whole Mars would be frustrated.

My big question here is where companies like Arcimoto and Aptera stand in this because while this won't have a huge impact on Tesla, it will have a huge impact on the little guys.


For what it's worth, I suspect the incentives will be significantly more impactful on lower end vehicle sales. Moving the price of an Arcimoto FUV from $17,000 to effectively $10,000 would be huge. They could potentially increase their base price by $2,000 and deliver a nice town vehicle for $12,000 while increasing profits. That would be a huge win.

I think that's usually the point of subsidies like this -- give the little guys enough of an edge to be able to bring innovative technologies to larger scale production so that they can hope to compete with the behemoths that aren't doing as interesting stuff.

Tesla doesn't need their help. Neither does GM or Ford. But these small startups do, and hopefully we start to get interesting lower-end vehicles proliferating as a result.

 

[MP3Mike]

My big question here is where companies like Arcimoto and Aptera stand in this because while this won't have a huge impact on Tesla, it will have a huge impact on the little guys.

They will need to do the same thing as Lucid and Rivian. Lock customers in a binding contract now so that they qualify under the current tax credit rules.

 

[CLK350]

Short summary of the EV incentive/ rebate portion of the new legislation.

• Tesla is going to be the biggest beneficiary.
• **or** very few Teslas (maybe none?) will qualify for the incentive without changing the way Tesla sources materials soon.
• Almost no non-Teslas qualify due to sourcing.
• A big percentage of the people who can afford EVs do not qualify for the rebate.
• Rivian/ Lucid & all the "Luxe" brands no longer qualify but are scrambling to lock in the incentive for existing sales.
• It's likely a fair number of PHEVs will be easier to make compliant since they have relatively tiny batteries.

So I can see why Whole Mars would be frustrated.

My big question here is where companies like Arcimoto and Aptera stand in this because while this won't have a huge impact on Tesla, it will have a huge impact on the little guys.


For what it's worth, I suspect the incentives will be significantly more impactful on lower end vehicle sales. Moving the price of an Arcimoto FUV from $17,000 to effectively $10,000 would be huge. They could potentially increase their base price by $2,000 and deliver a nice town vehicle for $12,000 while increasing profits. That would be a huge win.

FUV: the market noticed +8% at the opening -

What a waste of energy our financial / current system - imagine if all that mental energy (from politicians, lawyers, traders...) were instead used for producing (useful) goods or improving our planet

 

[MikeC]

FUV: the market noticed +8% at the opening

View attachment 838138

Karen Rei's Twitter thread posted above said 2- and 3-wheeled vehicles were specifically excluded from the new bill.

 

[hd-2]

FUV: the market noticed +8% at the opening -

What a waste of energy our financial / current system - imagine if all that mental energy (from politicians, lawyers, traders...) were instead used for producing (useful) goods or improving our planet

View attachment 838138

Does this amendment not apply to both Arcimoto and Aperta:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556659457194590210

 

[Ogre]

Does this amendment not apply to both Arcimoto and Aperta:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556659457194590210

Well that's a bummer. We have short commutes so were eyeballing an Arcimoto/ Cybertruck future where the Arcimoto would be our commute vehicle.

Still might happen.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Want to hear something really weird?

The Mustang Mach E can only qualify for the tax credit if it's under $55,000, while the Tesla Model Y has to be under $80,000.

Why? The EPA classifies the Mustang Mach E as a station wagon. All cars that are not an SUV, Truck, or Van get a $55,000 cap.

Someone tell my why I'm wrong about this.

Isn't a Mach E a CUV, just as a MY is? Neither would be a SUV in my mind, but I don't know what kind of convoluted definition the government uses. Traditionally a SUV would be based on a truck frame and capable of significant "off-road" and towing applications.

 

[LodiEVFan]

"We'll call this the "**** @Aptera Amendment."

I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this happen to Tesla once it is ready for implementation.