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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Chinese and European economies are rapidly decelerating, putting downward pressure on prices.
The Chinese and European economies were never that strong to begin with. In fact, demand for a lot of things was never that strong to begin with. There was never enough "demand" to justify the price oil and gas were at.

That's what some of us have been saying all along. That inflation was transitory, supply chains just needed to get back to business as usual. This has been proven in a ton of areas of the economy and in commodity prices.
 
You are absolutely right. I was about to point out that the gen2 sats with the laser links were already flying and that some users had already noted latency reductions (44ms >>> 37ms)


but then I realised that the observed latency reductions were not of the correct magnitude (20ms) for the laser links, and that in any case it seems FCC has yet to authorise switch-on


But I really can't see the laser links not getting approved. The US defence implications are such that it will surely get approved. Not that many text users will ever notice, though I'm sure there will be some edge case out there.

They are in use in other countries for sure, I have no reason to think they aren't being used over the US as the lasers don't enter the atmosphere (they are for Sat to Sat transmissions).

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/6984727/

"It's incredible watching the pings change, and I'm not sure anyone in North America can see what I'm seeing yet, as the Ground station coverage there is complete.

So I'm in a pretty unique position in that most of my coverage is running over Lasers either down to Sydney - 46ms ping, Down to Perth area and over to Sydney - 110ms ping, or over to Europe or America - 250ms - 550ms ping (Back to Sydney POP etc)"

"
  1. There aren't any ground stations within distance. The furthest I tested was in Darwin, Aus, and the closest ground Station is in Pimba, Aus, over 2500km away.
  2. The lowest pings - Australia only has one POP - Sydney. From anywhere in Western Australia, the POP pings are about 100ms - By the time the signal gets from the ground up to a bird, down to a ground station and then via Fibre across Australia to Sydney. The lowest ping I have had so far to Sydney has been just 46ms, or as in the photo attached, around 58ms. This is over a physical distance of 3400km. 4G phone in the area sits at around 118ms to get to Sydney from here.
  3. The Highest pings - At over 500ms - Indicate that the data is moving intercontinental to get back to my POP in Sydney."

from
 
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How will the Cybertruck perform in its safety rating tests? I think the testing agencies will need to add a fifth point of measure.
1) the vehicle’s ability to protect adults;
2) the vehicle's ability to protect children;
3) the vehicles's protection it provides vulnerable road users like cyclists and pedestrians;

(I believe Cybertruck will score high in safety due to the front end angle design, roll over the top rather than like being hit by a wall compared to all other pick-up truck "flat face mamma" designs)
4) the vehicle's safety assistance features.

5) the vehicle's ability to protect the testing agencies' safety testing equipment. Their equipment is in for a world of hurt.
Overall I tend to agree-expect it will be the safest pickup on the road. Especially regarding number 3. Perhaps even more than impact protection it offers pedestrians, the sloped nose offers far better visibility in urban situations than a conventional pickup/SUV. The high nose of a conventional P/U can hide pedestrians/bicyclists. The only negative I see is for rural drivers. The high hood of a conventional pickup offers considerable protection in the event of striking an animal. A sloped hood of a typical car (or potentially CT) scoops up a deer/cow/moose and puts it in your front seat. The flat, high face of a pickup offers better protection by impacting the animal and either bouncing it off or riding over it. Granted, modern pickups aren't that "tough" in the front and do have a tendency to collapse in an impact, but still provide better protection than a sloped nose.
 
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And of course.........wake up me when TSLA actually outperforms on a macro rally up day :rolleyes:

Clearly not going above 280 this week.

Btw, just a friendly fyi, if anyone here is in Nio as an investment......I'd get out. God awful earnings
Nice. Whatever reverse psychology, market psy ops you're cooking up, please keep it up!
 
Chinese and European economies are rapidly decelerating, putting downward pressure on prices.
This is purely an unwinding of price gouging futures trading aided by a willing press.

At no point was there anything near a shortfall in crude supply. And at no point was demand approaching 2019 levels. It was literally all talk.

I'm interested to see just how much future production has be sold by US frackers at these inflated prices.
 
If your head hits the hood, it makes a big difference how hard it is. Euro NCAP even maps that:
Euro-NCAP-Head-impact.png


That said, we can definitely agree that no impact is best and Tesla is improving rapidly on active collision avoidance - this is also from the recent tests with Model Y:
Doesn't matter in the US. We allow people to buy large pickups, stick huge stainless steel bumper guards on the front, and lift them so that they run right over other drivers or force pedestrians directly into the steel bumper.

1662571597264.png


Now I'm wondering if the CT will be able to dynamically adjust ride height fast enough during an accident to assist.

A sloped hood of a typical car (or potentially CT) scoops up a deer/cow/moose and puts it in your front seat. The flat, high face of a pickup offers better protection by impacting the animal and either bouncing it off or riding over it.
They do the same to pedestrians.
 
And of course.........wake up me when TSLA actually outperforms on a macro rally up day :rolleyes:

Clearly not going above 280 this week.

Btw, just a friendly fyi, if anyone here is in Nio as an investment......I'd get out. God awful earnings
16% positive gross margins. I don't invest in Nio but no where close at being the dumpster fire Rivian and Lucid are.

Any new ev companies that can. Hit double digit positive gross margins get some respect from me.
 
And of course.........wake up me when TSLA actually outperforms on a macro rally up day :rolleyes:

Clearly not going above 280 this week.

Btw, just a friendly fyi, if anyone here is in Nio as an investment......I'd get out. God awful earnings
You'd think traders would be eating MM's alive with this predictable SP action.

Screenshot_20220907-132655_Chrome~2.jpg


Perhaps they're a bit gun-shy with all the rocket fuel piled in front of us.
 
Doesn't matter in the US. We allow people to buy large pickups, stick huge stainless steel bumper guards on the front, and lift them so that they run right over other drivers or force pedestrians directly into the steel bumper.

View attachment 849961

Now I'm wondering if the CT will be able to dynamically adjust ride height fast enough during an accident to assist.


They do the same to pedestrians.
True, a sloped nose can put a pedestrian right through your windshield as well, putting you at increased risk. Lets try to make sure that doesn't happen too often, shall we? Fortunately I've never hit a pedestrian, but have tagged a few deer and had some very close calls with moose and cattle.
 
16% positive gross margins. I don't invest in Nio but no where close at being the dumpster fire Rivian and Lucid are.

Any new ev companies that can. Hit double digit positive gross margins get some respect from me.
Gross margins were 13%.....down from 14.6% in the previous quarter. In fact, Nio's gross margins topped at 19% a year and a half ago and have been in steady decline since, even though production is higher. That should not be happening.

Worst is that based on their own guidance, they're not even going to be able to keep pace with Tesla's growth % even though Tesla is at a scale more than 10X Nio's.
 
Nice. Whatever reverse psychology, market psy ops you're cooking up, please keep it up!
You think underperforming its beta on a macro up day is a positive thing??? 🥴 Trading action today just confirms what I thought of yesterday's trading action. That outperformance was nothing more than technical trading and MM's. You're better off just hoping the macro's tank because at least there's incentive for MM's to support the stock.

And before anyone says anything.................yes my expectations are that TSLA's valuation is a joke and every single day of underperformance is a joke until TSLA's valuation isn't.......such a joke


You'd think traders would be eating MM's alive with this predictable SP action.

View attachment 849966

Perhaps they're a bit gun-shy with all the rocket fuel piled in front of us.
Even traders are bored with TSLA 😅 There's like zero actual buying/selling in the trading action. Volume continues to be anemic.
 
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True, a sloped nose can put a pedestrian right through your windshield as well, putting you at increased risk. Lets try to make sure that doesn't happen too often, shall we? Fortunately I've never hit a pedestrian, but have tagged a few deer and had some very close calls with moose and cattle.

With a car, an animal gets clipped at the legs, the body pivots into the hood, then has a secondary impact with the windshield which is nearly vertical.

With the Cybertruck, once something impacts the hood, there is no secondary impact, it just slides up the windshield like a ramp.
 
They do, when I was rear-ended in my Y I immediately got a call from them asking if I was OK.
We implemented this when we did AEB (2014) and the body controls team did the same when airbags deploy. The mothership is immediately notified and a few frames from the incident are stored locally if needed (I'm sure this is much more robust now).
 
Even traders are bored with TSLA 😅 There's like zero actual buying/selling in the trading action. Volume continues to be anemic.
Nothing could be more perfect right now. Slow moves up from MM's while oil & gas absolutely plummets.

Next week's CPI will be good/great. That combined with low oil prices should be enough to cool out the Fed.

It's nice to finally see some folks actually concerned about potential recession and not just creating dips to buy.

Prices are coming into balance!
 
You think underperforming its beta on a macro up day is a positive thing??? 🥴 Trading action today just confirms what I thought of yesterday's trading action. That outperformance was nothing more than technical trading and MM's. You're better off just hoping the macro's tank because at least there's incentive for MM's to support the stock.

And before anyone says anything.................yes my expectations are that TSLA's valuation is a joke and every single day of underperformance is a joke until TSLA's valuation isn't.......such a joke



Even traders are bored with TSLA 😅 There's like zero actual buying/selling in the trading action. Volume continues to be anemic.
I'm just riding the surf like most of us here. You should bottle up that angst and sell it. You could call it Ode de options losses. Hang in there- it'll all work out.
 
With a car, an animal gets clipped at the legs, the body pivots into the hood, then has a secondary impact with the windshield which is nearly vertical.

With the Cybertruck, once something impacts the hood, there is no secondary impact, it just slides up the windshield like a ramp.
That's the problem with a car-that secondary impact with the less sloped windshield means the windshield will most likely fail and put that critter right in your lap. With CT, the continuous slope of the hood/windshield line means the hood will impart an upward velocity vector to the animal, and that there is at least a chance it will just slide up and over the windshield. I'd prefer not to test that, but it won't be long before it is. In many rural areas, animal strikes are nearly inevitable given the number of deer around and their suicidal tendencies. Honestly, striking animals and evaluation of the protection a vehicle offers drivers/passengers should be a required part of NHTSA safety testing. For much of the country, that's a far higher likelihood than striking a pedestrian, and usually occurs at higher speed.
 
I'm just riding the surf like most of us here. You should bottle up that angst and sell it. You could call it Ode de options losses. Hang in there- it'll all work out.
I'm a very patient person. I have no reason or need to sell my shares for the next few years.

But I'm sure as hell not going to be content with the shenanigans from Wall St when it comes to TSLA's valuation. And that includes Wall st traders, hedge funds, credit rating agencies, MM's, and especially analysts (even bull side analysts) that give laughable earnings estimates which they know are skewing the metrics in terms of how cheap TSLA's valuation appears.
 
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