Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

I don’t agree with that. You can get 10% by changing the electronics and at least one motor to model 3 level technology. The remaining 10% is certainly possible without enlarging the battery physically or going to 2170’s.

On what basis do you make this claim?

They already crammed 1,152 more 18650 cells (16%) in the existing pack casing when they built the 100kWh packs. What makes you think they can add another 826 cells in there and/or have a cell with 10% volumetric energy density hiding somewhere they haven't used?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Clear as mud.

Kind of. The SEC has made it pretty clear that they’re hope here is to modify the agreement such that it now requires pre-approval of all communications of any kind. Material info would require preapproval and non-material info would require preapproval stating that it is, in fact, non-material.

 

[Fact Checking]

Clear as mud.

Exactly, and the "clear as mud" interpretation by the SEC creates:

• Impermissible prior restraint on Elon's speech,
• an impermissible "chilling effect" on Elon's speech.

Both are valid reasons to reject the SEC's interpretation on constitutional grounds.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Lol I like the sudden 1% SP rise on Crumpton saying they’re seeking fines.

 

[Curt Renz]

Ha, ha. Did you know I used to work in quantitative marketing? I actually have a very favorable of view of market research, brand marketing, CRM and smart media buys. My area of focus was CRM and direct response marketing.

Go Google, "Disney vacation." Visit the website. Now watch what ads follow you as you move about on the internet. You will see little spots for Disney vacations for months. Disney pays for these ads because they there is a high probability that you are in the market for a vacation and have an interest in Disney. So it is super cost effective to try to keep Disney vacations at the top of your mind. We are talking about pennies of online ad spend to reel in a vacation booking worth several thousands of revenue dollars to Disney.

Now Google, "Tesla Model S." Visit the site. How many Tesla Model S ads follow you the rest of the day? How many ads for other cars follow you around the internet? If Tesla is buying your personal ad space, every competitor is buying it at a lower cost, and Tesla runs the risk that you will forget about your little Model S fantasy and fill your mind with some other noise.

If Tesla really wants to be an online only marketer of cars, they really need to step up their online marketing game. Following up on web searches is really basic Internet Marketing 101. The cool thing is that it can be highly targeted to persons "in-market" and the intensity of the media buy can be dialed up and down depending on net order rates without sending huge messages to investors. Disney does an awesome job keeping their resorts and them parks packed at all times through a lot of direct marketing touches. It's a lot more discrete than Tesla announcing a price cut to cars one day, only to bump it back up a month later.

In particular how would you target marketing toward prospects for Model S and Model X?

 

[jerry33]

On wat basis do you make this claim?

They already crammed 1,152 more 18650 cells (16%) in the existing pack casing. What makes you think they can add another 826 cells in there and/or have a cell with 10% volumetric energy density hiding somewhere they haven't used?

Chemistry change perhaps? (No idea, but that appears to be the most reasonable given the other factors.)

 

[RobStark]

I would disagree with this. Azaz was specifically referring to brand marketing. It is of long-term strategic value to cultivate and defend the Tesla brand. Not all advertising is about short term demand response, but if we look at the ebb and flow of demand over the whole year, there are definitely times like Q1 Model S/X deliveries when a little advertising pulse to boost net order rates would be beneficial.

It seems there are no demand problems with Model 3 Standard and Standard Plus.

How about advertising to bump up sales of Model 3 Performance?

And show Model X doing its Christmas dance?

Getting as many Model 3s out there as possible matters,even if low end versions, but profits still matter to fulfilling The Mission.

 

[Fact Checking]

"He violated the order because he was wrong" that the production numbers he tweeted had already been released, Crumpton says. "It doesn’t require a willful violation for him to be found in civil contempt."​

Two mistakes by Crumpton:

• Doesn't address the evidence presented by Elon's team that "around 500k" production was mention in the January 30 call.
• "No willfullness required" is the wrong legal standard.

"The SEC is seeking a series of escalating fines if Musk continues to violate the order, Crumpton says."​

Banning Elon as CEO worst case scenario is officially off the table.

Stock price reaction is probably partly due to this.

 

[lascavarian]

Fines much better than management changes.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Tesla lawyer John Hueston begins speaking.

 

[sparcs]

All this drama for fines when Elon has already cut back his tweeting? what a waste of time.

 

[scaesare]

Chemistry change perhaps? (No idea, but that appears to be the most reasonable given the other factors.)

I asked him for any basis suggesting they "...have a cell with 10% volumetric energy density hiding somewhere they haven't used?"

He wasn't wondering if they could do it. He was asserting they could.

 

[Garlands]

Lol I like the sudden 1% SP rise on Crumpton saying they’re seeking fines.

"The SEC is seeking a series of escalating fines if Musk continues to violate the order, Crumpton says."​

Banning Elon as CEO worst case scenario is officially off the table.

Stock price reaction is probably partly due to this.

Only a 1% stock rise because of this?? Disappointing.

 

[Fact Checking]

Hueston says the SEC pretends to be ``shocked'' that Musk gets to decide what is material, but that is exactly what the order says.​

LOL. Hueston takes no prisoners.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

1) ~$2.5B in gross profits from refreshed Gen II vehicles is highly relevant.

2) Vacating premium sedan and CUV segments gives quarter to the Germans plus Lexus. They would be popping champagne bottles in Germany if this were to happen because their most profitable vehicles would no longer face serious competition.

3) From a PR POV it would be worse than closing all stores. There would be a sense in the general public that Tesla is careening toward bankruptcy and you should stay away from buying a Tesla.

In short it would be extremely stupid to cancel S and X.

Fair enough, thanks.

Dan

 

[MarcusMaximus]

“As for Tusk’s discretion to decide...”

Yessssss.

 

[KSilver2000]

The biggest use case is heavy rain and wind or no umbrella.

I can’t imagine that’s what the team at Tesla was thinking is the biggest use case when they first imagined ES.

Now you know what fart mode is all about. Speeds in this environment are reduced, and the car will be signaling intent by moving slowly in the desired direction - so long as bioware is there to parse, it should work.

I like to point to one of the budding rival systems for illustration [yes, I am aware of all the differences].
Check 1:07 - it looks hair-raising to any human driver, but is not really all that difficult for an AI to manage:

But, in that video, if you look at the times there were obstacles with either cars or pedestrians, it is always giving the right of way until everything is clear. These systems don’t know how to take the initiative yet when it’s their turn.

I’m not saying these systems are flawed, I’m just saying there’s a long way to go before they’re competent in non-ideal situations. (And I’m talking about parking lot Summons as the autopilot situations on the freeway are different.)

 

[Fact Checking]

"The order doesn’t self-execute, it refers to the Tesla policy and that’s where the rubber hits the road," Hueston says. As for Tusk's discretion to decide what's material: "That’s exactly what Tesla negotiated for and got."​

Funny typo by Bloomberg ...

 

[Unpilot]

For the win:

“We think it’s very clear that Mr. Musk retained discretion in the policy,” Hueston argues. “The policy makes clear that the tweet is subject to a fact-based determination by Mr. Musk.”

 

[Intl Professor]

"The SEC is seeking a series of escalating fines if Musk continues to violate the order, Crumpton says."​

Banning Elon as CEO worst case scenario is officially off the table.

Stock price reaction is probably partly due to this.

Only if people are watching this as carefully as we.