Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

308.73, was hoping for green but coulda been worse...

 

[Singuy]

I'm not stating that the news was good... stating that the market has gone too far. They stated 40-45k this quarter of vehicles on wheels are missing some components that they anticipate will ship in Q4. They maintained full year guidance.

That basically will wipe out their profits for this quarter, but being forward looking, should mostly be recouped in Q4. With the vehicles hit, Ford has options with pricing... but the truck market is so strong that they are likely to be able to raise prices.

You are assuming that Q4 supply chain cost reverts back to normal which generally doesn't work that way. As of now, every car Ford makes bring zero to the bottom line due to the cost increase. That additional 40-50k car they deliver in Q4 also brings zero to the bottom line. So until they increase price or cost materially reduce, Ford is currently a charity organization without the tax incentives.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You are assuming that Q4 supply chain cost reverts back to normal which generally doesn't work that way. As of now, every car Ford makes bring zero to the bottom line due to the cost increase. That additional 40-50k car they deliver in Q4 also brings zero to the bottom line. So until they increase price or cost materially reduce, Ford is currently a charity organization without the tax incentives.

This is what I was getting at.....just worded in more clear way.

And IF a recession happens and Ford's demand wanes, they surely won't be able to increase prices and instead will have to decrease prices. That is the scenario I think Wall St is pricing in.

 

[henchman24]

Interesting that over the last week the Nasdaq has been stronger than the SP500 and that continued through the day before a Fed rate increase. Seems like positioning..

You are assuming that Q4 supply chain cost reverts back to normal which generally doesn't work that way. As of now, every car Ford makes bring zero to the bottom line due to the cost increase. That additional 40-50k car they deliver in Q4 also brings zero to the bottom line. So until they increase price or cost materially reduce, Ford is currently a charity organization without the tax incentives.

I'm not assuming they go back to normal. I'm saying the margin that Ford has on F150s and larger SUVs simply gets pushed to Q4. Not all vehicles that Ford makes are zero margin. Quite the opposite actually. F150s have Tesla like margins. The Super Duty series are nearing that. The Explorer (and especially the Lincoln offshoots) are also high margin for them. Where Ford doesn't make any money are their cars in Europe, EVs, and small SUVs. Many of those are negative or zero margin.

Ford already has and will continue to increase the prices on their trucks. This is one area, as long as Tesla isn't in the market, where Ford dominates and pretty much has control of the market like Tesla does for the 3 and Y.

 

[Ogre]

Ford already has and will continue to increase the prices on their trucks. This is one area, as long as Tesla isn't in the market, where Ford dominates and pretty much has control of the market like Tesla does for the 3 and Y.

Soon... it's coming.

Kind of wonder if Ford investors realize how big an overhang the Cybertruck might end up.

 

[wipster]

Soon... it's coming.

Kind of wonder if Ford investors realize how big an overhang the Cybertruck might end up.

Assuming that CyberTruck starts production & delivery next summer, imagine what the TSLA SP will look like then, especially if the Semi starts delivery later this year.

The future looks bright, glad I have a lot of shades!

 

[Unpilot]

Assuming that CyberTruck starts production & delivery next summer, imagine what the TSLA SP will look like then, especially if the Semi starts delivery later this year.

The future looks bright, glad I have a lot of shades!View attachment 854864

I spy with my little eye.....gummies?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Assuming that CyberTruck starts production & delivery next summer, imagine what the TSLA SP will look like then, especially if the Semi starts delivery later this year.

The future looks bright, glad I have a lot of shades!View attachment 854864

Speaking of which, I would assume we’ll get a lot of information about the Semi on the Q3 earnings call. If they are in fact delivering the Semi before the end of the year, Tesla has to officially comment on it relatively soon.

 

[wipster]

I spy with my little eye.....gummies?

Nope... at least not there ;-)

 

[Nocturnal]

Assuming that CyberTruck starts production & delivery next summer, imagine what the TSLA SP will look like then, especially if the Semi starts delivery later this year.

The future looks bright, glad I have a lot of shades!

If it doesn't I'm joining TSLAQ.

I'm hoping we at least get the final design and specs soon.

 

[Drumheller]

I'm hoping we at least get the final design and specs soon.

Me, too. Wasn't there going to be a Cybertruck update meeting a year or two ago?

As a supporter of the mission, and as an investor, I am supportive of the direction Tesla is going and how they are choosing to focus and prioritize.

As a fan, though...

 

[Ogre]

If it doesn't I'm joining TSLAQ.

I'm hoping we at least get the final design and specs soon.

Maybe AI day will be the mother of all unveils.

• Optimus
• FSD full release
• Semi
• Cybertruck
• Robotaxi/ budget Tesla announced
• World Peace

Ok... Obv joking, we won't get the Cybertruck unveil on Sept 30.

I think Cybertruck will have a launch party and full specs and final design won't be unveiled they unlock the order page for the first buyers.

 

[dhanson865]

I might get in trouble for this but I want to call it. I think there is a good chance that the FSD software that is better than a human will be called 10.69.420. I’m betting that will be the version that goes wide release and with that comes all that juicy differed revenue. This will surprise Wall Street and send TSLA to mars!

What do you consider wide release? We are already at all cars in the US and Canada with safety score of 80% of higher (when 90% is considered normal/average) and that is with 10.69.2.2

 

[Singuy]

What do you consider wide release? We are already at all cars in the US and Canada with safety score of 80% of higher (when 90% is considered normal/average) and that is with 10.69.2.2

No safety score required. You buy FSD, you get it by turning it on instantly. That's wide release.

 

[Skryll]

Rental of EVs is still a bit of time to become mainstream. People on vacation renting a car are likely going to drive more than usual (greater than 300 miles), so there really needs to be hotel/destination charging to make this a regular rental option.

We were pleasantly (relatively) surprised that enterprise car rental had a Kia Niro for us instead of some lame gas car. Annoying legacy car issues as expected (Stone Age navigation, hilariously loud beeping when backing up, great to entertain neighbors two streets down at 11pm when reparking, on/off button that needs to be brought into the 'correct state' by driver before being able to do things like unplug charge cable, leave car etc, no frunk space almost no trunk space) but had a really decent more than 250 mile range per charge.

 

[Ogre]

What do you consider wide release? We are already at all cars in the US and Canada with safety score of 80% of higher (when 90% is considered normal/average) and that is with 10.69.2.2

I consider it a wide release when I can pay for FSD and drive to the grocery store with my hands off the wheel.

Not any kind of official definition, but I suspect this is what the vast majority of customers care about. I suspect that is in the ballpark of where the accounting definition is too. If you can't buy it and use it immediately, is it really released?

EDIT: Ninjaed by @Singuy

 

[Dutchie]

Thank you CAD, I ended up positive for the day..

 

[Rammstein]

What do you consider wide release? We are already at all cars in the US and Canada with safety score of 80% of higher (when 90% is considered normal/average) and that is with 10.69.2.2

I’m thinking FSD beta wide release to everyone in the US that paid for it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I consider it a wide release when I can pay for FSD and drive to the grocery store with my hands off the wheel.

Not any kind of official definition, but I suspect this is what the vast majority of customers care about. I suspect that is in the ballpark of where the accounting definition is too. If you can't buy it and use it immediately, is it really released?

EDIT: Ninjaed by @Singuy

That might be your expectation for wide release, but not Tesla's since they do not put that wording into the details of FSD when you order. Meaning, they don't have to deliver that to recognize the revenue.

Pretty much the only thing that's keeping Tesla from recognizing the revenue is that consumers don't have the ability to "pay and use right away". Though if Tesla can prove that every FSD user in the US that paid for it has been given access......even if there is still a safety score, then I think Tesla can recognize the revenue

 

[Ogre]

That might be your expectation for wide release, but not Tesla's since they do not put that wording into the details of FSD when you order. Meaning, they don't have to deliver that to recognize the revenue.

Pretty much the only thing that's keeping Tesla from recognizing the revenue is that consumers don't have the ability to "pay and use right away". Though if Tesla can prove that every FSD user in the US that paid for it has been given access......even if there is still a safety score, then I think Tesla can recognize the revenue

Yeah, the hands-free part is my personal criteria for "Done", not necessary for satisfying the definition of what FSD is for currently shipping cars.

Right now I see 4 steps remaining.

1. Wide release—You buy it and get "Level 2 FSD" same day (This is what you are talking about and should satisfy the accountants)
2. Hands free release — Maybe at the same time, maybe months or even a year or more later.
3. Summon/ send you car to an arbitrary location
4. Robotaxi network

Maybe that 3rd step is part of Robotaxi. Seems to me it would be possible and quite useful before full robotaxi release is though.