Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

What time do we expect P&D today?

In about 3 hours.

Edit: It's what I expect based on a faint memory of earlier P&D days.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Sunday Question:
Does anyone else relate everything in life to Tesla? Yesterday, for instance, talking with my son about his tennis game, I said "Your game is just like Tesla FSD. It's there, you just need to clean it up". At work I'm probably even worse with a lot of "Elon's philosophy is..." and "At Tesla they..." I'm guessing I'm not the only one.

 

[Todd Burch]

AI expert reacts to Tesla AI day:

Fast summary:
Thinks Tesla are great at hardware but sucks at software, wants the to opensource the bot. Shills comma.ai stuff a lot. Very impressed by Dojo. Generally seems to like Tesla, Elon etc.

LOL. That’s George Hotz. Comma.ai is his company. One of the bigger egos I’ve ever seen. Remember they said they might pass Tesla FSD by the end of this year? How’s that going?

He was the first person Elon approached to lead the Autopilot team when it first started up. Glad that didn’t turn out. Smart guy but he’s a little out of touch with reality IMO.

 

[Singuy]

Note the TOP500 performance is for FP64 (64bit floating point math), the ExaPOD performance of 1.1 EFLOP is for BP16 (Brain Floating Point Format 16), so the two are not comparable. I think the listed FP32 performance for D1 chip is an order of magnitude slower than BF16 performance, FP64 is at least 2x slower on top of that, so need to take this into account if you'd like to get an idea of where DOJO will stand on TOP500. But I don't think D1 supports FP64 anyway, so likely you won't be seeing it in TOP500 at all, which is not a bad thing, since DOJO is optimized for machine learning, it should get bigger bang for the buck by optimizing for one thing instead of covering all high performance computing scenarios.

Yeah currently if you just want to be on top of the list, you go with AMD hardware as their MI gpus are just full of fp64 and optimized for it. Machine learning doesn't require such precision unlike data scientist running high end weather models or science experiments.

 

[traxila]

OK, now we got a poll:

Who here would pay 25K USD right now for an Optimus that does nothing but house clean.

Sweep floors, dust, wash laundry, load and run the dishwasher.

Agree or disagree.

Final results ahead of a record P and D:

55 Yes!

1 No way.

1 Laugher.

IMO, if Tesla can execute an effective house cleaning robot for around 20K, the demand will be endless.

We cannot even get a house cleaner without breaking wage and labor laws. This is a 100% cash business and a large percentage of the people available are undocumented. All of the people who are interested in cleaning your house will not entertain anything but cash. Mentioning 1099s (a US tax document) is only for comedic value.

The other option is to engage a professional cleaning service where you pay even more expensive fees and have a different stranger showing up every time who hates their job.

So we run our rumba and do our best on our own. Get me an Optimus!

 

[nvx1977]

My biggest concern with Tesla’s AI is the lack of self-learning. Every improvement has to be trained on a neural net and pushed in a software update. When FSD beta does something stupid, I can’t give it real time feedback and say “don’t drive in the cross hatch area, it’s not a lane.” I can press the feedback button and send the FSD team a feedback email, but I still have to wait until the next software release to see if t

I could be wrong, but I don't think the state of the art AI/ML is at a point to learn on the fly. Training a NN is the best we have atm, and that takes a lot of compute and power. Not something you want your own car to be doing.

I'm less concerned about basic rules-of-the-road issues, as these tend to be black and white and should be solved eventually. The tricky part is if you let an individual fleet car learn on its own based on that driver's behavior. How can we trust that that driver is driving responsibly? How do we prevent bad actors purposely driving poorly to mess up the NN behavior? How does Tesla reconcile everyone's different driving styles?

I'm not saying this cannot be done, but it is a very complex problem, and I tend to think Tesla has already thought about it and decided it didn't want to go that route. Also keep in mind that re: stylistic differences in driving, you won't care about any of that if you're reading a book or taking a nap. The drive just needs to be comfortable.

 

[Paul_SF]

I might have misunderstood Elon’s statement but I believe he meant to say that Optimus will cost 20k to make, not to sell? Why sell them when they can do work that is more valuable inside the organization?

The statement of probably being made in millions is not telling me that they will actually sell them to anyone else but Tesla Optimus Force ( made up this name obviously), SpaceX, and any other organizations that will be aligned with the mission Elon has.

Maybe in 10years they might sell some to public, but I doubt it. You need the services, not dealing with the tools.

Everyone trying to get one for their house to vacuum and stuff makes no sense. Get a Roomba and simplify your housing situation. (/s)

P&D in a few!!!!

 

[bkp_duke]

Note the TOP500 performance is for FP64 (64bit floating point math), the ExaPOD performance of 1.1 EFLOP is for BP16 (Brain Floating Point Format 16), so the two are not comparable. I think the listed FP32 performance for D1 chip is an order of magnitude slower than BF16 performance, FP64 is at least 2x slower on top of that, so need to take this into account if you'd like to get an idea of where DOJO will stand on TOP500. But I don't think D1 supports FP64 anyway, so likely you won't be seeing it in TOP500 at all, which is not a bad thing, since DOJO is optimized for machine learning, it should get bigger bang for the buck by optimizing for one thing instead of covering all high performance computing scenarios.

Right, it's not an apples to apples comparison since, for lack of a better term, DOJO silicon is basically an ASIC.

But, it was the best list I could find to make the point that this thing, especially just running in 10 cabs, is bonkers fast.

 

[ZachF]

There are growing rumblings of big trouble at both DeutscheBank and Credit Suisse this weekend.

 

[mongo]

I might have misunderstood Elon’s statement but I believe he meant to say that Optimus will cost 20k to make, not to sell? Why sell them when they can do work that is more valuable inside the organization?

The statement of probably being made in millions is not telling me that they will actually sell them to anyone else but Tesla Optimus Force ( made up this name obviously), SpaceX, and any other organizations that will be aligned with the mission Elon has.

Maybe in 10years they might sell some to public, but I doubt it. You need the services, not dealing with the tools.

Everyone trying to get one for their house to vacuum and stuff makes no sense. Get a Roomba and simplify your housing situation. (/s)

P&D in a few!!!!

Saturation.
Tesla doesn't have enough tasks to keep a robot workforce 10 times the size of the current human one busy.

Plus cost offset. At 25% GM they can sell three and keep one for free.

 

[Knightshade]

Everyone knows the plural of Octopus is Octopii and so is it for Optimii.

I mean, the alternative is Optimuses... which would probably prompt me to write a filk of the I want a hippopotamus for Christmas song, which would be dangerously close to poetry... so I suspect sticking with Optimii is the safer path.

 

[Christine69420]

Everyone knows the plural of Octopus is Octopii and so is it for Optimii.

I mean, the alternative is Optimuses... which would probably prompt me to write a filk of the I want a hippopotamus for Christmas song, which would be dangerously close to poetry... so I suspect sticking with Optimii is the safer path.

The plural of Optimus has to be Optimists.

Because this hunk of metal is going to change our lives.

 

[NicoV]

The plural of Optimus has to be Optimists.

Because this hunk of metal is going to change our lives.

It’s going to change the lives of the people currently doing unskilled labor even more. They won’t be able to compete and will lose their jobs. If they’re lucky they may get a universal basic income.

 

[Matt Porter]

For me, the vertical integration of Dojo has similarities to the move toward 4680s. It may or may not be technically superior to what's on the market in future. But what we do know is 1: Tesla won't have to compete with Google and Amazon for these chips and 2: Tesla won't have to pay Nvidia's profit margin on them.

If it's important to the mission, it seems Elon and Tesla have a way of making sure they're not beholden to suppliers or competitors...

 

[Hock1]

I mean, the alternative is Optimuses... which would probably prompt me to write a filk of the I want a hippopotamus for Christmas song, which would be dangerously close to poetry... so I suspect sticking with Optimii is the safer path.

I think it is more like:

Optimus -----> Optimi (one i, not 2)

Optima (Cat woman bot)-----> Optimae

 

[Thumper]

Everyone knows the plural of Octopus is Octopii and so is it for Optimii.

Except it is not a settled matter. See What is the Plural of Octopus? - Ocean Conservancy

 

[hacer]

...
Surely you've heard all the things F.O.R.D. stands for right? Those jokes are older than you. Is that ALSO somehow magically not hate for the brand?

So your take then is that every comedy roast is a hate-fest. I don't see it that way; jokes can be funny, true, biting and loving all at the same time.

 

[KBF]

I think some companies will concentrate their efforts in other directions. Whichever company successfully makes a functioning anatomically correct bot wins. Extra points if they can program it to say things like “oh you’re so big” or whatever.

Just sayin. All men are pigs. All men with money will buy one.

Jmho.

I'll assume your 2nd paragraph is semi-sarcastic so I didn't thumbs down for making ultimate statements like those that are very unnuanced and shaky logic. Plus there are women that would be in the market.

There are apparently sexbot companies that have gotten very close to 'functioning anatomy'... Apparently covid restrictions increased demand and R&D, because in my research after AI day, I was surprised at the products out there. I have no idea what's just marketing (aka 'how realistic') but search 'rose wives' for an example... There are even speaking ones, but I imagine there are different companies that don't sound like a creepy killer. But apparently they have designed realistic 'feel' and mechanics. The faces still are well within the uncanny valley territory.

I'm conflicted about the ethics in terms of the objectification of men & women, and leading to decreases in EQ/relational skills/etc, but it would also lead to lower STD rates, domestic abuse (and probably help with trauma recovery) and reduce loneliness. And I'm sure there are many other factors, many of which I haven't considered.

We already have evidence of how destructive/unhealthy social media has been in regards to public discourse, politics, and societal-scale manipulation, and I would anticipate similar unintended side-effects. I think that rational, open discussion would help us avoid some pitfalls, but that may be too optimistic...

The tech is already appears to be here - and software will catch up to hardware...

 

[Knightshade]

So your take then is that every comedy roast is a hate-fest. I don't see it that way; jokes can be funny, true, biting and loving all at the same time.

No, my take is I've seen those things said with absolutely not the slightest trace of love, often.

Same for some of the even nastier things people have made up for various GM brands standing for (Pontiac being perhaps the most offensive)

Again maybe it's having lived a long while south of the Manson-Nixon line, or having been to a decent # of tracks with "regular" people racing too...but while there's certainly some degree of friendly rivalry among some, there's no shortage of legit hate of one domestic brand by owners of another.... most often between truck owners but I've seen quite a bit among F-body vs. Mustang owners too... and even B-body vs. Crown Vic/Mercury owners-- The Impala forums had plenty of genuine hate when the Mercury Marauder came out as one specific example (which was extra funny since the B-body had been out of production for 7 years at that point).

 

[traxila]

Except it is not a settled matter. See What is the Plural of Octopus? - Ocean Conservancy

Listen, I grew up taking tests with Octopii as the right answer. Language is all about revisionist history and capitulation. Well, I am not standing for it!

Are we going to allow the words Octopuses and Optimuses to escape our lips?

Not I, Sir! Absolutely not!

Optimii it is!