Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

View attachment 865079

£1m!

Then there's GM's handbuilt $300K one-offs - Volume same as Tesla startup on the Roadster.
How does safety validate a hand built vehicle? They'd need several I'm sure.

"Buyers could also be assured that their Celestiq is completely hand-built, with Cadillac only building a couple or so units per day. "

GM unveils Cadillac Celestiq: Price, specs, and how it compares vs rivals

The Cadillac Celestiq is GM's most ambitious electric yet, and it is evident in the vehicle's starting price of over $300,000.

www.teslarati.com

 

[hacer]

If you 'need' to roll, then yes the position has moved against you. However, there is 'need' vs 'can'.

Options give you higher delta (profit or loss) for the same amount at risk (position size). Rolling is the equivalent of sell/buy on the stock side and extends the expiration date. If one has been predicting correctly, they never need to roll, but they can to their advantage. By doing so, they avoid loss of time value while continuing to have the higher delta exposure, approximating a pure-stock position valued at a multiple of the cash they have.

I'm very familiar with rolling. I was responding to a message that began with:

Do you change the strike price to enable no cost rolls? I have several I need to roll and it always cost money to roll at the same strike.

whereupon the method described was "legging in" each side separately, sell the part you need to sell when its price is high and buy the part you need to buy when its price is low. I'm simply pointing out that that's not possible because you don't actually know when the price is high vs when it's low. You might enter one leg, but never get the opportunity for the other because you can't actually know in advance future prices. That was the point of my post.

A genuine roll would be a spread order which for @JSML will either cost something, or have a different loss/payout profile. "Legging" a spread is just more speculation which is fine if that's what you desire, but it's hardly disciplined damage control.

 

[capster]

View attachment 865079

£1m!

"SPECTRE"?! Seriously? And still with the grille? How will M, not to mention 007, respond? Perhaps it is for the best that Queen Elizabeth II didn’t live to see this.

 

[ThisStockGood]

View attachment 865083

Thought this might be relevant.

I demand an announcement regarding this topic AH today. Otherwise I will cry.

 

[mongo]

I'm very familiar with rolling. I was responding to a message that began with:

whereupon the method described was "legging in" each side separately, sell the part you need to sell when its price is high and buy the part you need to buy when its price is low. I'm simply pointing out that that's not possible because you don't actually know when the price is high vs when it's low. You might enter one leg, but never get the opportunity for the other because you can't actually know in advance future prices. That was the point of my post.

A genuine roll would be a spread order which for @JSML will either cost something, or have a different loss/payout profile. "Legging" a spread is just more speculation which is fine if that's what you desire, but it's hardly disciplined damage control.

Oh, didn't realize you were referring to a different post than the one you quoted. Agree with what you said here.

 

[Paracelsus]

View attachment 865079

£1m!

This scene from Big Fish about the town with the same name leaves me with the same conclusion. Was the town name the inspiration for the new Rolls Royce Spectre vehicle name?

 

[Discoducky]

Then there's GM's handbuilt $300K one-offs - Volume same as Tesla startup on the Roadster.
How does safety validate a hand built vehicle? They'd need several I'm sure.

"Buyers could also be assured that their Celestiq is completely hand-built, with Cadillac only building a couple or so units per day. "

GM unveils Cadillac Celestiq: Price, specs, and how it compares vs rivals

The Cadillac Celestiq is GM's most ambitious electric yet, and it is evident in the vehicle's starting price of over $300,000.

www.teslarati.com

This is just foreshadowing to GMs shrunken dismal best possible future where they only make handfulls of handbuilt boutique shooting brake sedans for the Hunger Games execs.

Shooting brake - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Can't wait until their advertising money dries up.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

As a Tesla investor since 2013 I have come to conclude TSLA will go higher than I think possible and go lower than I think is possible.

What I also can assure you is that after this TWTR "overhang" there will be another "fill in the blank" overhang. There is too much vested interest to make sure there is another crisis.

Please don't get worked up on the next manufactured disaster.

Hold strong friends!

 

[bballshinobi]

Now you're just being annoying.

No one here saying they just bought 20 shares makes a cent from their statement. Whereas Chicken makes YouTube videos and spews his nonsense to gullible followers. He makes money from the videos (and the more controversial his position is, the more he makes) and he makes money by selling his investment classes by coming off as a 'genius.' There is every reason to doubt his nonsense.

Based on your claims, you probably don't watch/follow him. Have you watched him before or you are just annoyed? I think he donates his Youtube income just like Dave and he doesn't sell any courses. He actually shut down his Youtube after people started hating on him, so I don't see how he makes money on Youtube from being controversial. His Youtube income is also peanuts compared to his TSLA holdings just like Dave. Do you doubt Dave's intention when he talks about Tesla?

I watch/read bullish AND bearish takes about Tesla and I don't get offended when another TSLA investor has a bearish take on the company and/or stock. You can laugh at him when the stock temporarily defied the macros a few weeks ago and stayed above $300, but now we are in the low $200's you have to admit he has been more correct about the stock price movement than you have. I doubt you have taken on any defensive moves while we were in the $300's as he did. If you did then you would be happy right now because not only do you still have your shares but you also have extra cash to buy MORE shares.

 

[Singuy]

Dear god.....just let it be over already

If it makes you feel any better. Just know that Einhorn will be taking a good deal of Musk's money at the expense of Tsla shareholders. His perseverance finally paid off!

Einhorn Says Twitter Is The Biggest Long Bet He’s Made This Year

David Einhorn, the founder of Greenlight Capital who was among hedge fund managers wagering on Twitter Inc., said he believes that Elon Musk will go through with his deal to buy the social media company this year.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[wipster]

"I don't think those earnings are real, nor are they sustainable."

Finally GoJo (the idiot, not the hand cleaner) says something I agree with. I don't think that earnings that are not real are sustainable either!

 

[wipster]

Are the batteries Gold Ion batteries ... made of gold

Maybe it has the new NASA flat batteries that are going to wipe out Tesla. After all, they are really expensive and won't be produced for 5 or 6 years...

LOL!!!

 

[wipster]

If it makes you feel any better. Just know that Einhorn will be taking a good deal of Musk's money at the expense of Tsla shareholders. His perseverance finally paid off!

Einhorn Says Twitter Is The Biggest Long Bet He’s Made This Year

David Einhorn, the founder of Greenlight Capital who was among hedge fund managers wagering on Twitter Inc., said he believes that Elon Musk will go through with his deal to buy the social media company this year.

www.bloomberg.com

Grrr...

 

[ntam]

Troy Teslike posted a bearish forecast for Q3 earlier and then retracted it with a new forecast that is now a beat. His GM estimate was 25.x% and now 27.9%. Tesla was dropping on his earlier forecast and is recovering after his update.

 

[Discoducky]

Not sure if you're being sarcastic since 2022 is bizarro year. If you're not, why would an increase in industrial output bring down macros? Doesn't that imply higher productivity, which is a---good thing?

I'm reminded of "the beatings will continue until morale improves" when I think of what the Fed is doing to the economy.

Yesterday's number was a 3rd straight month of shrinking for NY manufacturing. Huge leading indication of recession.

Today's was an indication of just a functioning economy and the market still freaked as the Fed will point to this and say more hikes.

Bizzaro

 

[insaneoctane]

Intel Slashes Valuation for Mobileye IPO With $16 Billion Offer

Mobileye Global Inc., the self-driving technology company owned by Intel Corp., is targeting a valuation of about $16 billion in a public offering, far below its previous target amid a rocky year for new listings.

www.bloomberg.com

But i thought Mobileye was the 'key' to autonomous driving?

Why keep Mobileye when everyone's just going to follow Mary? First EVs, recently Energy management solutions, and certainly autonomous driving is next. Resistance is futile!

 

[Todd Burch]

Short day-traders closing out positions at end of day?

Edit: Maybe not. Indices are rising a bit into the close as well.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yep, I think Dave's EPS is way too low. My model predicts $1.18 but I don't go into as much detail as most others here do, and I know my model is more conservative than reality most of the time. Rob Mauer and the Accountant seem to agree, and if I had to wager I'd bet on their number.

Human frailties cause humans to adjust their profit estimates down when the share price gets hammered and adjust it up when the stock is on a tear. It makes zero sense but it's unconscious. It's like the subconscious portion of their brain is telling them the market must know something they don't. But, in my experience, moves like this have very little correlation to actual results unless management decides to front-load expenses figuring they won't be rewarded for excellent results in this climate anyway, so they might as well bank them for future quarters. However, I don't see TSLA doing that at this time, my gut tells me management will be in a mood to support the stock price and this would go beyond the actual accounting, including acting calm and professional and giving analysts reasons to upgrade estimates. But that's just an educated guess and it could be wrong if there are considerations I don't know about.

That's a very generous offer by @The Accountant to compile TMC member earnings estimates for future quarters. I have an earnings model I'm very excited to put into action and share with fellow TMC members. To save @The Accountant and myself the dinking around reporting my estimates at various points as the quarters progress, I'll just disclose the formula I have developed so he can easily compile my earnings estimates with other submittals. It takes into account most of what we know about Tesla, the new things we learn each week, but is elegant and simple to calculate. The formula at any point in time is:

X + $0.01 (where X= The Accountants most recent estimate)

I won't always be correct, but I think you guys will be impressed with how well such a simple formula works most of the time!

 

[insaneoctane]

...and it was pretty obviously $400 or $300 weren't "good value" prices and $200 and hopefully $150 will be very good value, assuming the company fundamentals are intact.

Hmmmm. I don't claim to be particularly good at timing the market, but I disagree that, at the time, my $1,165 ($388 post split) earlier in the year purchase was obviously not good value. I'll agree wholeheartedly that it wasn't in hindsight though.

 

[Discoducky]

Table with current Q3 forecasts:

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$1.34