Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Max Plaid]

Troy Teslike posted a bearish forecast for Q3 earlier and then retracted it with a new forecast that is now a beat. His GM estimate was 25.x% and now 27.9%. Tesla was dropping on his earlier forecast and is recovering after his update.

With all due respect to Troy, I'm pretty sure his Tweets have little bearing on the stock price, or anything outside of the TSLA bubbleverse

I suspect rather the news that Apple is ramping-down iPhone 14 Max production, combined with the incessant verbal diarrhoea from one of the FEDiots, is the likely root-cause of the general market dump starting at 14:37

 

[Artful Dodger]

Troy Teslike posted a bearish forecast for Q3 earlier and then retracted it with a new forecast that is now a beat. His GM estimate was 25.x% and now 27.9%. Tesla was dropping on his earlier forecast and is recovering after his update.

Priceless! And all for the low, low price of 40 pieces of silver. /S
*FED inflation adjusted.

 

[insaneoctane]

View attachment 865079

£1m!

I'm really surprised to see RR getting in on this fad!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

$NFLX just killed it....Good sign

 

[The Accountant]

Now updated with @Troy and Tesla Economist numbers:

 

[Discoducky]

X + $0.01 (where X= The Accountants most recent estimate)

Both most genius and funny post I've seen today.

 

[Discoducky]

$NFLX just killed it....Good sign

Boom! +9%

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

$NFLX just killed it....Good sign

Hope you're ready for TSLA to kill it exponentially more and be up just 1% instead

 

[ggies07]

So I just created this really long doc of articles, videos, and books that I've read over the past decade for my brother-in-law and this is one of the vids in it. I just rewatched it and thought I'd share it out again since earnings day is tomorrow. Man do I miss Jack...wish he was here to see all this growth.

Edit: he says Shanghai is going to go crazy and well, it did.

Tesla Model Y Is China’s #1 Best-Selling Premium SUV in August & in 2022

Tesla Model Y was the best-selling premium SUV in China in August. The car has been the undisputed leader throughout the year and so far holds the title of the best-selling premium SUV in China in 2022.

www.tesmanian.com

 

[insaneoctane]

Boom! +9%

EDIT: Netflix +15% now. I'd like to see TSLA with a beat and +15% AH!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hope you're ready for TSLA to kill it exponentially more and be up just 1% instead

We get what we get and we do not get upset!

 

[larmor]

Hope you're ready for TSLA to kill it exponentially more and be up just 1% instead

Historically TSLA has been kiling it, and almost always goes down after beat of expectations.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Hello sports fans! We are now 200 games into what has become a very forgettable season, but there is still plenty of time to turn things around. Maybe tomorrow's team status from Coach Elon will shake off the losing stench.

Today
Close:	220.19
Margin of W/L:	0.84
Volume:	70,851,141
High - Low:	12.57
Season
Record:	101-99	0.505
Total margin of wins:	830.93
Total margin of losses:	-963.00
YTD gain/loss:	-132.07	-49.2%
Price/52 week high	53.1%
Best Win:	47.67	Jan 3
Worst Loss:	-40.53	Apr 26
Last 10:	4-6
Streak:	W2
Avg margin of victory:	8.23
Avg margin of defeat:	-9.73
Avg Volume:	70,640,062
Avg Volume of Last 10:	78,767,326
Avg High - Low:	15.13
Avg H - L of Last 10:	12.62

 

[Discoducky]

Hope you're ready for TSLA to kill it exponentially more and be up just 1% instead

If TSLA were to beat like NFLX (Q3 EPS $3.10 vs. $2.13 Est.) then we'd need to do around ~$1.4 to $1.5

 

[Todd Burch]

Historically TSLA has been kiling it, and almost always goes down after beat of expectations.

How long can that keep happening though?

At some point, you'd think that people who want to make money would rather stop tinkling into the wind, turn around, and--y'know...tinkle with the wind.

 

[Nocturnal]

How long can that keep happening though?

At some point, you'd think that people who want to make money would rather stop tinkling into the wind, turn around, and--y'know...tinkle with the wind.

Probably when retail moves on and we aren't here to bleed anymore.

 

[Gigapress]

I can set up a second table for that next quarter for just TMC member estimates.

I went ahead and made one so we can have it for this quarter. As long as nobody vandalizes it or accidentally overwrites the numbers then this spreadsheet should work fine.

TeslaMotorsClub Investor Casual Quarterly Estimates Compilation

Q3 '22 TMC Quarterly Estimates - 2022 Q3,. .,Summary Statistics <a href="https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/7122581/">Gigapress' post in TMC</a> TMC Username,Revenue,Auto Gross Margin Excl ZEV Creds,GAAP Earnings per Share,Non-GAAP Earnings per Share,Comment,Revenue,Auto Gross Margin Excl ZEV...

docs.google.com

Again, not on the chart with my .83 estimate.

I got you...was that GAAP or non-GAAP?

 

[Mengy]

Hope you're ready for TSLA to kill it exponentially more and be up just 1% instead

I'm pretty sure this will be exactly what happens tomorrow.

 

[Nocturnal]

More great news. So VPPs now in the two largest US states.

 

[Gigapress]

That's a very generous offer by @The Accountant to compile TMC member earnings estimates for future quarters. I have an earnings model I'm very excited to put into action and share with fellow TMC members. To save @The Accountant and myself the dinking around reporting my estimates at various points as the quarters progress, I'll just disclose the formula I have developed so he can easily compile my earnings estimates with other submittals. It takes into account most of what we know about Tesla, the new things we learn each week, but is elegant and simple to calculate. The formula at any point in time is:

X + $0.01 (where X= The Accountants most recent estimate)

I won't always be correct, but I think you guys will be impressed with how well such a simple formula works most of the time!

I've added your X+$0.01 to the spreadsheet