Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[oneday]

OT, mostly

Just one more small data point reinforcing the notion that Tesla is not just years, but light-years ahead of the rest of the automotive world. Today I attended the opening day of the New Mexico International Auto Show in Albuquerque. Here's a panoramic shot of the main exhibit hall as soon as you walk in:

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• Why, there must have been dozens of attendees. Okay, maybe two dozen attendees. But hey, it's a work day. It'll be fuller this weekend, honest.
• The show is sponsored by one entity: the New Mexico Automotive Dealers Association. The very thugs who have enshrined their business model into state law, thus ensuring that Tesla's direct sales/service model is kept out of the state. We continue to fight them, and won't back down. Meanwhile, this is their pride and joy. And nobody's here.
• I went to every single automaker's exhibit, and asked every single one of them: do you have any pure battery electric vehicles on display this year? "Uh, no" was the usual reply, or, "no, but we have a hybrid over here!"
• There was one--count 'em--one EV in the entire exhibit hall. A Nissan Leaf. That's it.
• The GM/Buick/Chevy exhibit lacked a Bolt or a Volt. "We're concentrating on what the market wants in New Mexico," I was told.
  
• The feeling in the show was, hey this is gasoline-loving New Mexico, what climate crisis? Carbon? Yeah I have carbon, on my spoiler, check it out dude!

The only EV on the entire show floor: the Nissan LEAF.

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Here's the exhibit area for Toyota. Numerous hybrids:

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The Toyota rep was so meticulously well-rehearsed, polished, and ready for any potential attendee question, I wasn't sure if he was real or AI with a hologram display. It was like talking to the HAL-9000 computer or Data from Star Trek. Here's the verbatim conversation.

Me: So Toyota doesn’t yet have any EVs does it?
Rep: We did in the 90s, and then we did in 2014. They were limited runs, they were known to be bought in bulk by the government and *crushed*. (Snorts.)
Me: Okay. (I fear he is thinking of GM's EV1, but I didn't say anything.)
Rep: So we did a partnership in 2012 with Tesla.
Me: Right, the RAV4.
Rep: RAV4. but it was the 2012 body style. So it was the hatchback...
Me: I remember.
Rep: They made 1500, the range was 103, and they sold well. But then they didn’t make them anymore. Now, from Corporate in Plano (TX) last year, we asked them, “What is the future of EV?”
Me: Right.
Rep: And the Corporate answer was, "Toyota has their hands on all future fuels." That being said, there might be a longer range vehicle on the horizon. But as product specialists we are trained and drive current products. They don’t tell us.​

After searching his memory banks he went on, perhaps thinking of a way to sway me away from my obsession with electric vehicles and back to the bright future of "all future fuels," so he started to sing the praises of hydrogen and brag that Toyota now offered 39--count 'em, thirty nine!--hydrogen refill stations in California. Oh, and he tried very hard to explain that Toyota's hydrogen-powered vehicles are actually EVs, as the hydrogen energy is converted to electricity and powers electric motors. At that point I thanked him for the brilliant exposition which had expanded my mind greatly, but I spared telling him I drive a Model S.

It turns out the NM International Auto Show was so vast, it couldn't all fit in the main East Hall, so one had to exit the building, cross the street (cop watching carefully for jay-walkers) and enter the West Hall, where BMW/Mini, Audi, Porsche, Mercedes, Volvo, Lincoln, and Mitsubishi had some cars. Emphasis on "some."

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The curse of trade shows everywhere: the second hall, the one only 10% of the attendees know about, despite all the signs for "MORE AUTO SHOW!" There were maybe a dozen (I'm being generous) people in this entire West Hall.

I met two people hanging around the Porsches. They were volunteers from Porsche Club of America - NM chapter. Very nice folks. I told them I run the Tesla Owners Club of New Mexico. "That must be a quiet group," one of them said, trying to make a snarky little anti-Tesla joke. "Well, we have almost 300 members, so it's not too quiet," I replied. They were shocked.

The West Hall had zero electric vehicles. Nothing. Nada. Zip.

. . . .

Okay, I lied. There wasn't just one EV in the entire auto show. There were five. See, tucked into one corner was the "KIDS AUTOBAHN" where kids could ride on little electric race cars around a track on the carpet. There were four electric race cars, two in use by two kids at the time I stopped by.

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In a way it was so perfect. The future is owned by the kids. And the future is EVs. It was somehow so fitting that the trade show limited the gas-guzzlers to the adults, but it had to relent and put kids in cool little EVs. It is their destiny.

. . .

Anyway, that was the show. Like I said, Tesla is so light-years ahead it is just amazing.

Great post. If those kids were driving gas/diesel cars it would kill everyone in that room. That’s pretty much how I view ICE cars now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I disagreed because you’ve forgotten that the $420 tweet didn’t actually cause that much SP change at the time of the tweet. The SP had already significantly climbed because of the Saudi SP stake announcement via the MEDIA.

Your whole premise is therefore off. Investors had just as much time to get clarification/correction on the tweet as they did the media’s news.

Yes, that's what actually happened on Aug 7, 2018. I 'live' posted news about the Saudi investment on DISQUS ~3 min later: (Tue Aug 7, 2019 12:24 pm EDT)

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund builds $2bn Tesla stake. TSLA SP up $10 in 3 minutes.​

Elon's "taking Private" Tweet didn't come until 12:48 pm EDT (at least 25 min after the news broke). Here's a 5-min chart of the SP action on the day from Google:

I posted again Tue Aug 7, 2019 12:32 pm EDT, which was 16 min before Elon's tweet.

SP up $16 now after 12 minutes. :^D​

Note that the screenshot above shows TSLA SP at 12:54 pm EDT was $358.38 but it had already climbed to about $356 by the time of my 2nd post on DISQUS. That was 16 min BEFORE Elon's tweet. And the chart above shows that TSLA was just $2 higher than that 6 min AFTER Elon's tweet.

So, Elon's tweet DID NOT trigger the runup in TSLA sp on Aug 7, 2018. News of the the $2B Saudi investment in TSLA is what triggered the runup. Undeniably so. Except for the Financial Media, who worked diligently to hide the Saudi involvement in the SP runup.

The published Business Insider Timeline completely ignores any events on Aug 7 prior to Elon's tweet. Most significantly, BI neglects to mention the Financial Times report which first broke news of the Saudi investment. There is no mention anywhere in the BI story of the FT story, or the $2B Saudi stake in TSLA.

No, BI wouldn't mention that because that would undermine BI's narrative, and their toxic anti-Elon agenda.

The SP peaked late in the day, closing at $379.57 but that was after NASDAQ halted trading on TSLA for over an hour, giving all investors an equal opportunity to digest the news about the Elon considering taking Tesla private.

There is nothing improper about those events. Nothing was proven in court. Neither Elon nor Tesla admit any wrongdoing in the later settlement. The SEC had a weak case according to former SEC Director Harvey Pitt.

On Mar 10, we learned that 2 of 5 SEC Commissioners (both Republicans) objected to the requirement that a lawyer pre-approve Elon's messages.

Yet the Financial Media sensationalizes reports that supports their anti-Elon narrative. But why?

Let's be very clear: Tesla's future fortunes rest largely on the shoulders of Elon Musk. The press is being paid to stop or slow that success, and to damage Tesla whenever possible. That's why they focus on the tactic of attacking Elon.

It's no different than the playbook used to defeat Cap-and-Trade back in the 2000s: "Identify and vilify" the main protagonist. Hence the slander campaign against Al Gore. Same playbook pioneered by Big Tobacco in the 1980s.

Now we are witnessing a similar slander campaign against Elon Musk with the goal of pushing him out. This is exactly what the SEC asked for as the remedy for his Aug 7 tweet, which was wholly unjustifiable given the events.

The only groups that would benefit from the SEC lawsuit, and now the contempt motion, are the same groups that prompted it. This is an outrageous, flagrant corruption of a Gov't regulator. And it is also why Elon fights in court today. It is an existential struggle for Tesla.

Don't belive the B.S. Do your own research. Tell your friends. Buy a Tesla (buy a Powerwall). Take your neighbors and coworkers for a ride. Tell them its safe to buy a Tesla. Afterward, they'll understand that the Media has been lying to them all along.

Be well, do good, and enjoy the ride!

Cheers!

 

[22522]

Interesting viewing.

The Deming stuff in the last few minutes is great!

 

[ZachF]

Fred Alert:

Tesla is upgrading Model S/X with new, more efficient electric motors

Well well well, who didn't call this ages ago S&X being refreshed not with 2170s, but with PMSRMs. Motor codenamed "Raven". Charge rate improvements coming too. Timeframe: "could happen relatively soon, according to people familiar with the matter."

Of course, caveat... define "relatively soon" and who said people are Sounds like the data may have been gleaned from digging through the most recent software update rather than a corporate leak.

A PMSRM of course means more range (~5% on the highway, ~10% in city driving) and a lower Wh/km, so less time at a charger - even ignoring the charge rate upgrades Would also mean more sustained track performance.

Ed: I've seen some suggestion that Green may be the source:

green on Twitter
green on Twitter
green on Twitter

He thinks based on history it should be out in under six months, but might be ready already. But while he discovered the code, its not clear that he's the only source. Fred discussed a lot more details than Green did.

Add Maxwell dry electrode tech for the higher scale models to the 18650 batteries too and you could be talking about 400 miles of range.

EDIT- plus HW3, mild interior and exterior refresh = fresh demand secured.

 

[Todd Burch]

I just hope those S/X upgrades come soon. Now that the cat’s out of the bag things will get worse until they’re on sale.

 

[TradingInvest]

I tried the new SW update (9.0 2019.8.5), I really like what I saw. There is a sharp 90 degree curve that I try with every new update. The yellow sign before the curve said 15 mph. In the past my car always try to make the turn at 25 mph, which is scary, I always have to take over at the last moment. Today, it slowed down perfectly to 15 and made the turn. It turned just like a human driver. I don't know if it read the speed sign.

Also, after NoA on a busy highway, it exited, slowed down, then stopped right before the red light. I didn't know it will handle red light. Maybe it will only handle some traffic lights, so definitely be very carful. Later it maintained 40 mph toward a stop sign, I don't think the car intended to stop, so I took over at the last moment. Later I will go through that stop sign a few times and see if it can learn.

 

[EVNow]

Later I will go through that stop sign a few times and see if it can learn.

This would be ideal. I'll drive for a month to my office & back - if the car learns the route and drives that automatically it will save so much trouble. I don't care that it would be "geo-fenced".

But, I don't think it works that way. All the learning happens at Tesla - from what I could tell from that talk.

 

[Causalien]

I sense a change in media sentiment.
Someone higher up in the government ordered people to "Go Pro Electric". Maybe the prospect of being overtaken by Jina really scared some big brass.

The repetition of the point "American Company in Fremont, made in American and employing Americans" seems to be the message that is being repeated and planted. It is actually super effective.

 

[mblakele]

I tried the new SW update (9.0 2019.8.5), I really like what I saw. There is a sharp 90 degree curve that I try with every new update. The yellow sign before the curve said 15 mph. In the past my car always try to make the turn at 25 mph, which is scary, I always have to take over at the last moment. Today, it slowed down perfectly to 15 and made the turn. It turned just like a human driver. I don't know if it read the speed sign.

Also, after NoA on a busy highway, it exited, slowed down, then stopped right before the red light. I didn't know it will handle red light. Maybe it will only handle some traffic lights, so definitely be very carful. Later it maintained 40 mph toward a stop sign, I don't think the car intended to stop, so I took over at the last moment. Later I will go through that stop sign a few times and see if it can learn.

This would be ideal. I'll drive for a month to my office & back - if the car learns the route and drives that automatically it will save so much trouble. I don't care that it would be "geo-fenced".

But, I don't think it works that way. All the learning happens at Tesla - from what I could tell from that talk.

All learning is probably offline — in the cloud, if you like. If your disengagements show up in the training set, that’s good enough.

 

[KSilver2000]

Lower S/X production, cancellation of the lower margin 75kWh car, discounts, almost as if they are getting ready for a major upgrade to those vehicles...

I just hope those S/X upgrades come soon. Now that the cat’s out of the bag things will get worse until they’re on sale.

The only people that will know whether a new motor is being used are the ones that diligently follow what is being posted about it and other online sites. Most buyers in general will not know and don’t really care whether a new motor is used resulting in range increase by 5 to 10%. Heck, what percentage of of forum members here can even recite the max range of the S/X? Likely not many. How many Tesla buyers in general even know the difference between AC and perm magnet motors?

As a TSLA investor, I sure hope they don’t allocate too many resources to upgrading the S/X. TSLA does not depend on those two models atm. Everything right now is dependent on building and selling the 3 faster than they have ever been.

 

[anthonyj]

I do, unfortunately.

I think we are setting up for a huge shift in focus and pump with the FSD hype. There is no other explanation for the accumulation over the past few days and bullish call sweeps. This isn’t short covering

 

[Ratanpara]

Was I the only one that caught goofball saying that if Tesla was to sell 500K cars this year the stock should be at $400?

So right now if I project out this quarter as all quarters for the year, which is a completely WRONG way to do it but bear with me, that would put Tesla at 260K cars this year with a the current price of 275.

SO if Tesla reaches 387K delivered this year the stock should be worth at least 337.5.... using goofball logic of just finding the middle of both numbers. It works for me because of the goofball who is making the prediction.

Just maybe things are a bit under priced right now using even Cramer logic.

Cramer is flip flopper, which ever way wind is blowing on given day on news flow he makes comments on that without having any guilt of what he said previously and being dead wrong about it.

 

[JRP3]

Most buyers in general will not know and don’t really care whether a new motor is used resulting in range increase by 5 to 10%.

Of course not, but they will see the higher range, and possibly increased performance.

As a TSLA investor, I sure hope they don’t allocate too many resources to upgrading the S/X. TSLA does not depend on those two models atm. Everything right now is dependent on building and selling the 3 faster than they have ever been.

I'd expect minimal resources needed to change the S/X to the new motors. The motors have been developed, all that might be needed is to build slightly larger versions. Or not since 4 of them can already power the Semi. It may be almost plug and play.

Edit: Plus it would only be one of the motors since the other motor will still be AC induction so it can be idled when needed.

 

[JRP3]

I need to point out a major and surprising error in Sandy Munro's analysis. He talks about how crucial rare earth elements are for lithium ion batteries, and how China has most of the production of those elements. However there are ZERO rare earth elements in lithium ion batteries. (Unless there is some secret additive of which I am unaware, which would still be a tiny amount.)

 

[anthonyj]

Cramer is flip flopper, which ever way wind is blowing on given day on news flow he makes comments on that without having any guilt of what he said previously and being dead wrong about it.

On TSLA, he gives the current reason/opinion why bulls/bears are screwed that day. He warns people to stay out of the stock instead of shorting or buying. He says that bears are out of their minds all the time. Out of all the dumb asses on CNBC, he is by far my favorite. He is hilarious.

Y’all forget the times where he is very pro-Tesla and Musk and only focus when he says bad things. He’s just an entertainer

 

[RobStark]

Some ignorant people insist lithium and cobalt are rare earth metals.

 

[MP3Mike]

I need to point out a major and surprising error in Sandy Munro's analysis. He talks about how crucial rare earth elements are for lithium ion batteries, and how China has most of the production of those elements. However there are ZERO rare earth elements in lithium ion batteries. (Unless there is some secret additive of which I am unaware, which would still be a tiny amount.)

Didn't he say something along the lines of "Even if it is just a small handful you need, if you don't have it you can't build the cars."

The most interesting thing I heard is that he said the boards throughout the Model 3 had small antennas. Why?

• Could Tesla be using it as a redundant communication method to help with FSD?
• Are they testing the reliability of wireless vs. wired to see if they can really drop most of the wiring out of the Model Y?

 

[JRP3]

Y’all forget the times where he is very pro-Tesla and Musk and only focus when he says bad things. He’s just an entertainer

And thus at the same time useless and dangerous.

 

[mblakele]

I need to point out a major and surprising error in Sandy Munro's analysis. He talks about how crucial rare earth elements are for lithium ion batteries, and how China has most of the production of those elements. However there are ZERO rare earth elements in lithium ion batteries. (Unless there is some secret additive of which I am unaware, which would still be a tiny amount.)

Permanent magnets? He said he was suffering from jet lag.

 

[SureshV]

Got my update 2019.8.5 3aaa23d which including traffic red light warning on autosteer but it didn’t show up while driving. Anything I should be doing ? The autosteer is enabled.