Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582835532295393280

Simply incredible. I think there's more PE compression to come though, at least until the economy turns around.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Waiting for earnings is surprisingly similar to waiting for the next FSDb release. Tons of anticipation and off-topic threads in advance. Tons of hype about how it's gonna be awesome. This time for sure! And then, somehow, the end result is just..... meh. But the next one..... gonna be awesome.

c'est la vie

 

[TN Mtn Man]

This appears to be correct, as Automotive Gross Margin was maintained at 27.9%.

My read is that Tesla's increased efficiency offset the raging US dollar and forex losses related to that.


Really want to know what that 900M of paid down debt was. They didn't have that much debt listed in Q2.

Considering that half their plants are new this year, are ramping and not operating at peak efficiency and (presumably) gross margin, I find the fact that they were able to maintain GM across the board impressive ah. I was expecting a dip as they ramped.

 

[generalenthu]

What is the $991M in marketable securities they bought?

probably treasury bonds and the like.. to earn a little more than cash in a money market fund.

 

[ZeApelido]

"We plan to introduce front castings and structural battery packs" at Berlin by end of the year. Sounds like starting to put 4680 in some cars in Berlin, right?

 

[traxila]

probably treasury bonds and the like.. to earn a little over than cash in a money market fund.

Two year at around 4.5% is a great place to park some of that cash pile.

 

[bkp_duke]

Great quarter, especially with 20K+ autos in-transit at EoQ.

 

[Hock1]

It's encouraging long term as everything is trending in the right direction, but I really was expecting an ATH record quarter with respect to EPS, and we didn't get that as Q1 beats Q3, despite the much higher production and deliveries.

Long term it's just noise, but short term I think the SP won't react well to this report. Possibly neutral at best? Unless we get a super positive during the call. I don't think we'll be getting a Netflix style runnup in the morning.

Mengy: I am afraid I've missed your credentials. You seem to be trying to predict everything and expect all to be impressed with your knowledge. I'm not. "I think this" and "I think that" and "I didn't expect such and such". What exactly are your credentials that you rely on to expect your opinions to be accepted as well-researched and knowledgeable?

 

[Mengy]

Mengy: I am afraid I've missed your credentials. You seem to be trying to predict everything and expect all to be impressed with your knowledge. I'm not. "I think this" and "I think that" and "I didn't expect such and such". What exactly are your credentials that you rely on to expect your opinions to be accepted as well-researched and knowledgeable?

I never once said anyone should be impressed nor take my expectations as credible or gospel?

Isn't this thread for discussing how and why we invest into TSLA?

 

[henchman24]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582835532295393280

Getting close to the point where the PE will be a driver of the stock price. The ratio is dropping like a rock and will continue on that path. Even if next quarter is only $1 EPS, TTM goes from $3.61 to $3.85... continue just that number for 2 more quarters and you're at $4.05. That is probably on the conservative side of things (personally I'd add at least 1.25 over the next 3 quarters), but if that happened, you can see a floor being set on PE while in a growth stage. We've experienced PE compression, so hard to say where that lands. ~75x has been a spot where companies have landed in the past, but so has 100x and 50x.

If I was guessing, once the market stabilizes from the macro shocks, we probably see somewhere between 80-90x. Problem is the timing of the macro shocks. We could get 2 more 75bps raises before the year is done and sends us into the 40s in the short term... but if they stop or slow, we could see a return >75 or even 100 in a matter of weeks.

 

[MABMAB]

Volume is lackluster. ho hum

 

[Nocturnal]

Two year at around 4.5% is a great place to park some of that cash pile.

True, but TSLA will likely see 100% over the next few years so...

 

[Knightshade]

Two year at around 4.5% is a great place to park some of that cash pile.

Part of the EVERYTHING IS FRAUD Q narrative is Tesla never shows interest income remotely as high as it should be from claimed cash on hand, so they describe the ER cash on hand # as fake window dressing.

This is one I haven't actually looked into because after the last 793 ones turned out wrong I kinda got bored.

But it's already been raised (again) about this quarters results among them on the twitters... just like the accounts receivable fraud, the non-moving SGA number fraud, the IR estimates fraud, etc...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So reading through the later parts of the earnings report, page 21 sure makes it seems like Tesla missing 50% delivery growth for 2022 to be all but a certainty.

It's hard(practically impossible) to determine the numbers of in transit cars from those graphs since there's no numbers on them, but I would guess anywhere from 30-50k cars in transit at the end of every quarter going forward.

So if Q4 production goes as follows :

Fremont 145k
Shanghai 270k
Berlin 42k (3500/week average rate X 12 production weeks with one week for downtime)
Austin 25k (2500/week average X 11.5 weeks of production with 1.5 week for downtime since there's Thanksgiving & Christmas in the US)

We get a total of production of 482k

Take away 40k in transit but add back 20k from in transit in Q3 and we're looking at 462k deliveries for Q4

I guess you could add on another 10-15k of production spread across Fremont/Austin/Berlin if they have limited downtime in Q4.

 

[wipster]

It was SA reporting it as an EPS miss, they corrected it with an update.

I hated to read Schultz' article on SA, but the really interesting part was that most of the comments were very positive... it's like some of us invaded the site!

 

[MP3Mike]

So reading through the later parts of the earnings report, page 21 sure makes it seems like Tesla missing 50% delivery growth for 2022 to be all but a certainty.

It's hard(practically impossible) to determine the numbers of in transit cars from those graphs since there's no numbers on them, but I would guess anywhere from 30-50k cars in transit at the end of every quarter going forward.

That page says that those graphs are Hypothetical, not that that is what is planned...

 

[Singuy]

So reading through the later parts of the earnings report, page 21 sure makes it seems like Tesla missing 50% delivery growth for 2022 to be all but a certainty.

It's hard(practically impossible) to determine the numbers of in transit cars from those graphs since there's no numbers on them, but I would guess anywhere from 30-50k cars in transit at the end of every quarter going forward.

So if Q4 production goes as follows :

Fremont 145k
Shanghai 270k
Berlin 42k (3500/week average rate X 12 production weeks with one week for downtime)
Austin 25k (2500/week average X 11.5 weeks of production with 1.5 week for downtime since there's Thanksgiving & Christmas in the US)

We get a total of production of 482k

Take away 40k in transit but add back 20k from in transit in Q3 and we're looking at 462k deliveries for Q4

I guess you could add on another 10-15k of production spread across Fremont/Austin/Berlin if they have limited downtime in Q4.

If Tesla achieves anything more than the expected 435k from the street, it will be a huge positive.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Simply incredible. I think there's more PE compression to come though, at least until the economy turns around.

Look, this result are not going to light up the stock tomorrow or next week or for Oct/Nov/Dec.

But I don't know how long Wall St can ignore what Q4 is bringing. Even if you keep margins the same (they won't stay the same since Berlin/Austin are now entering the S part of their production curve which means margin expansion is coming due to depreciation/amortization being spread across more cars), the sheer increase in deliveries and thus revenue (even if they only do 450k of deliveries) is going to cause a huge amount of PE compression in just a single quarter.

 

[RubberToe]

And then, somehow, the end result is just..... meh. But the next one..... gonna be awesome.

Let's see:

• Record Income
• Record Free Cash Flow
• Record Cash Pile
• 20,000 vehicles in transit with the delivery wave smoothed out.

I'm having trouble seeing the "meh", maybe help me out here?

Show me a list of all the companies doing the first 3. All the goofy meh'ing is just about creating higher expectations so that when great results come in you can always say "meh", and all the while Tesla is growing faster than about any company in the world. Meh indeed!

RT

 

[bkp_duke]

Look, this result are not going to light up the stock tomorrow or next week or for Oct/Nov/Dec.

But I don't know how long Wall St can ignore what Q4 is bringing. Even if you keep margins the same (they won't stay the same since Berlin/Austin are now entering the S part of their production curve which means margin expansion is coming), the sheer increase in deliveries and thus revenue (even if they only do 450k of deliveries) is going to cause a huge amount of PE compression in just a single quarter.

WS has shown they can ignore it as long as cash is sitting on the sidelines, due to macros. Until all that cash comes flooding back into the market, I think the manipulators can keep us capped in the 200-300 range. Sadly.

My opinion, not investing advice, of course.