Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

So lets not move the goal post here then. You are saying if he does sell next week his the worlds dumbest person then? Because there is a lot of goal post moving everytime an event occurs. Because I'm going on the record saying his actually pretty stupid with this stuff (Stock market tricks).

The only thing stupid is us sitting here with Tesla down 45% from where Elon has sold calling him stupid.

 

[MrMoo]

The only thing stupid is us sitting here with Tesla down 45% from where Elon has sold calling him stupid.

I 100% agree at how stupid I was. My stupidity knows no bounds. In fact when the stock rose back up to $300 and he then announced he was going to buy Twitter and I did nothing but hold until $204, i just doubled down on stupid. If I met myself in real life i'de punch myself.

 

[Unpilot]

I'm going to get margin called today....again.

Those bastages are going to get some more shares from me.

But I sold a rental house and when I get the proceeds I WILL plow it right back into Tesla.
The future is so bright, I gotta wear shades.

 

[nvx1977]

For me personally, I am not factoring FSD into the SP for several more years. Certainly not going to do so just because FSDb is about to get wide-released to everyone who purchased it. Here's why:

1) FSDb just isn't robust enough yet. I was in the first safety-score cohort that got FSDb last year on Oct 11 2021. We were on v10.2 back then. First impressions: wow, the car is doing it's own thing! That feeling cannot be understated. But it was heavily tempered by, wow this thing is incredibly jerky and very uncomfortable. Around the end of the year, Musk suggested (to Lex Fridman maybe) that FSDb would be ready for wide release in a year. Of course he's said this so many times in years past, but this time, I could experience the progress firsthand rather than try to sift through the shills and the naysayers opinions. Between each version, it was difficult to tell if there was meaningful progress being made. But after 4 or 5 releases, it was clear FSDb was definitely improving. But is it improving at a rate fast enough to be ready for the end of the year mass deployment?

2) What will be delivered at the end of 2022 won't be what the masses might expect. What will be released is a feature-incomplete, L2 system, where the driver must keep their hands on the wheel along with cabin camera enforcement of looking forward. Yes, Elon did say during the call last night that you wouldn't need to touch the wheel. IMO he was trying to convey capability of the system. But the system is still going to enforce periodic torque like it has since forever. Because in reality, there will still be lots of situations where the car does something completely wrong and unexpected, and the driver is responsible to prevent it from being unsafe. Also note how Elon dodged the question specifically asking about L4/5 capability. He's basically saying that by EoY, FSDb will be a decent L2 system. We're almost at the EoY, and based on my observations since 10.2, we're going to end up with an L2 system where paying attention is very, very mandatory. The car still exhibits unnatural jerkiness on some very basic turns, and it also has no idea about your local driving culture (speed limits, aggressive passing, etc).

I also said it was feature-incomplete because there's still a fairly long list of things the car can't do, like U-turns, 3-pt turns, reverse maneuvers, interpreting more complex signage, school zones, school buses, etc. These aren't things the car does poorly; it flat out can't handle them yet. therefore, feature-incomplete.

3) Maybe the EoY wide release will allow Tesla to recognize revenue from FSD, and that might make for a nice earnings report, but I think there's a fundamental disconnect between the capability of FSDb and the asking price, currently $15,000 as of this writing. I'm not going to dictate what is a good value for FSDb, but based on how it performs today, my intuition tells me many people would be disappointed with FSDb performance after paying that amount. Already there are lots of vocal people on TMC polluting every FSD thread about how they were duped, and FSD is a scam. This problem could escalate more once FSDb is wide-released. Once FSDb is available to all, I would advise anyone thinking of purchasing it to do a 1-month subscription first. You might love it; great! Or you might hate it, at which point I just saved you $14801 that you can put into TSLA. Assuming informed buyers and current FSD pricing, I don't see take rates being high enough to be material to the SP. I feel that FSDb still needs a year or two to become polished enough to justify TODAY's $15,000 pricing. At that point, it would be feature complete and a very reliable and comfortable L2 system.

I love FSDb, and I love being part of the testing process. I send snapshots and send Tesla detailed emails describing problems and suggesting feature improvements, even beyond FSD. But I cringe a bit when I hear the bulls get overenthusiastic about FSD and robotaxi potential. It will need more time. And one more observation: for any robotaxi that intends to operate without a driver, all doors and trunk lids need an ability to auto-close. Imagine passengers getting out and leaving the doors open. Would the car just drive off like that? Not safely. And in the S3XY lineup, only the Model X has auto-closing doors. So unless 3/Y get autodoor retrofits, don't count on them being the driverless robotaxi fleet of the future.

 

[Singuy]

There are 4 peaks over 300. Elon sold 3 out of the 4 peaks for twitter(if you don't believe his first sell was for tax reasons). This is why I think it's odd he would skip the last peak just to pump it later after a miss on deliveries.

 

[Lance Boyle]

For me personally, I am not factoring FSD into the SP for several more years. Certainly not going to do so just because FSDb is about to get wide-released to everyone who purchased it. Here's why:

1) FSDb just isn't robust enough yet. I was in the first safety-score cohort that got FSDb last year on Oct 11 2021. We were on v10.2 back then. First impressions: wow, the car is doing it's own thing! That feeling cannot be understated. But it was heavily tempered by, wow this thing is incredibly jerky and very uncomfortable. Around the end of the year, Musk suggested (to Lex Fridman maybe) that FSDb would be ready for wide release in a year. Of course he's said this so many times in years past, but this time, I could experience the progress firsthand rather than try to sift through the shills and the naysayers opinions. Between each version, it was difficult to tell if there was meaningful progress being made. But after 4 or 5 releases, it was clear FSDb was definitely improving. But is it improving at a rate fast enough to be ready for the end of the year mass deployment?

2) What will be delivered at the end of 2022 won't be what the masses might expect. What will be released is a feature-incomplete, L2 system, where the driver must keep their hands on the wheel along with cabin camera enforcement of looking forward. Yes, Elon did say during the call last night that you wouldn't need to touch the wheel. IMO he was trying to convey capability of the system. But the system is still going to enforce periodic torque like it has since forever. Because in reality, there will still be lots of situations where the car does something completely wrong and unexpected, and the driver is responsible to prevent it from being unsafe. Also note how Elon dodged the question specifically asking about L4/5 capability. He's basically saying that by EoY, FSDb will be a decent L2 system. We're almost at the EoY, and based on my observations since 10.2, we're going to end up with an L2 system where paying attention is very, very mandatory. The car still exhibits unnatural jerkiness on some very basic turns, and it also has no idea about your local driving culture (speed limits, aggressive passing, etc).

I also said it was feature-incomplete because there's still a fairly long list of things the car can't do, like U-turns, 3-pt turns, reverse maneuvers, interpreting more complex signage, school zones, school buses, etc. These aren't things the car does poorly; it flat out can't handle them yet. therefore, feature-incomplete.

3) Maybe the EoY wide release will allow Tesla to recognize revenue from FSD, and that might make for a nice earnings report, but I think there's a fundamental disconnect between the capability of FSDb and the asking price, currently $15,000 as of this writing. I'm not going to dictate what is a good value for FSDb, but based on how it performs today, my intuition tells me many people would be disappointed with FSDb performance after paying that amount. Already there are lots of vocal people on TMC polluting every FSD thread about how they were duped, and FSD is a scam. This problem could escalate more once FSDb is wide-released. Once FSDb is available to all, I would advise anyone thinking of purchasing it to do a 1-month subscription first. You might love it; great! Or you might hate it, at which point I just saved you $14801 that you can put into TSLA. Assuming informed buyers and current FSD pricing, I don't see take rates being high enough to be material to the SP. I feel that FSDb still needs a year or two to become polished enough to justify TODAY's $15,000 pricing. At that point, it would be feature complete and a very reliable and comfortable L2 system.

I love FSDb, and I love being part of the testing process. I send snapshots and send Tesla detailed emails describing problems and suggesting feature improvements, even beyond FSD. But I cringe a bit when I hear the bulls get overenthusiastic about FSD and robotaxi potential. It will need more time. And one more observation: for any robotaxi that intends to operate without a driver, all doors and trunk lids need an ability to auto-close. Imagine passengers getting out and leaving the doors open. Would the car just drive off like that? Not safely. And in the S3XY lineup, only the Model X has auto-closing doors. So unless 3/Y get autodoor retrofits, don't count on them being the driverless robotaxi fleet of the future.

 

[Nocturnal]

If Elon is the world's dumbest person. So far the only time I have seen Elon sell his own shares was at Tesla's peak. Selling prior to AI day and P&D would be the best time and even a 5 yo could have predicted a sell the news event afterward.

Also it makes a lot of sense for Elon to get his team to miss wall street concensus on delivery by unwinding the wave just so he can "pump" the stock afterwards right?

If he was as much of a stock pumper as people claim we would be sitting at $500 a share.

Still going to be annoyed if he sells more to buy the bird but such is life.

 

[Lance Boyle]

FSD At Today's $15,000 Asking. Any Idea What Tesla Might Be Asking For 1 Year From Now?

 

[MrMoo]

There are 4 peaks over 300. Elon sold 3 out of the 4 peaks for twitter(if you don't believe his first sell was for tax reasons). This is why I think it's odd he would skip the last peak just to pump it later after a miss on deliveries.

Well I think it's odd he fired so many people from Tesla and said he had a bad feeling about the economy then offered 20% above market price for a company that makes no money.

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla last night gave us positive news of the 4680 ramp. And Joe Tegtmeyer filmed inside the battery production part of Giga Texas. And they are stockpiling a lot of structural battery packs there. You can see for yourself in the first part of this video:

I don't know why they are stockpiling but they are definitely producing batteries. Could they be producing batteries faster than they can make cars with these for now?

In a production ramp, not all parts ramp at the same pace, so relieve relative bottlenecks, you stockpile if part of ramp (i.e. battery packs) is ramping faster than say general assembly. Can't always do this, but just having all those packs sitting there staring at the guys working to improve throughput on the next steps would act as a great motivator. "Hey Jack, you see that stack of THOUSANDS of battery packs? You want to explain to Elon why those are still here next week? Get off your ass and help me get this ________ installed!!!"

 

[ggies07]

So we can talk about Twitter in this thread now right? right!?!

-Elon sells shares of TSLA to buy Twitter
-TSLA price drops due to Elon selling
-Elon talks about Twitter purchase on TSLA investor conf call

SO WE SHOULD EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO POST ABOUT IT IN HERE NOW SINCE IT'S THE INVESTOR THREAD. right????.........................

 

[ZachF]

Model 2 is fine. I think Z now has some stigma attached to it as well.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Well I think it's odd he fired so many people from Tesla and said he had a bad feeling about the economy then offered 20% above market price for a company that makes no money.

Because he also said last night that it could 10x.

 

[Nocturnal]

Man, I didn't expect a green day but that's a rough opener.

 

[AndrewZ]

For me personally, I am not factoring FSD into the SP for several more years. Certainly not going to do so just because FSDb is about to get wide-released to everyone who purchased it. Here's why:

1) FSDb just isn't robust enough yet. I was in the first safety-score cohort that got FSDb last year on Oct 11 2021. We were on v10.2 back then. First impressions: wow, the car is doing it's own thing! That feeling cannot be understated. But it was heavily tempered by, wow this thing is incredibly jerky and very uncomfortable. Around the end of the year, Musk suggested (to Lex Fridman maybe) that FSDb would be ready for wide release in a year. Of course he's said this so many times in years past, but this time, I could experience the progress firsthand rather than try to sift through the shills and the naysayers opinions. Between each version, it was difficult to tell if there was meaningful progress being made. But after 4 or 5 releases, it was clear FSDb was definitely improving. But is it improving at a rate fast enough to be ready for the end of the year mass deployment?

2) What will be delivered at the end of 2022 won't be what the masses might expect. What will be released is a feature-incomplete, L2 system, where the driver must keep their hands on the wheel along with cabin camera enforcement of looking forward. Yes, Elon did say during the call last night that you wouldn't need to touch the wheel. IMO he was trying to convey capability of the system. But the system is still going to enforce periodic torque like it has since forever. Because in reality, there will still be lots of situations where the car does something completely wrong and unexpected, and the driver is responsible to prevent it from being unsafe. Also note how Elon dodged the question specifically asking about L4/5 capability. He's basically saying that by EoY, FSDb will be a decent L2 system. We're almost at the EoY, and based on my observations since 10.2, we're going to end up with an L2 system where paying attention is very, very mandatory. The car still exhibits unnatural jerkiness on some very basic turns, and it also has no idea about your local driving culture (speed limits, aggressive passing, etc).

I also said it was feature-incomplete because there's still a fairly long list of things the car can't do, like U-turns, 3-pt turns, reverse maneuvers, interpreting more complex signage, school zones, school buses, etc. These aren't things the car does poorly; it flat out can't handle them yet. therefore, feature-incomplete.

3) Maybe the EoY wide release will allow Tesla to recognize revenue from FSD, and that might make for a nice earnings report, but I think there's a fundamental disconnect between the capability of FSDb and the asking price, currently $15,000 as of this writing. I'm not going to dictate what is a good value for FSDb, but based on how it performs today, my intuition tells me many people would be disappointed with FSDb performance after paying that amount. Already there are lots of vocal people on TMC polluting every FSD thread about how they were duped, and FSD is a scam. This problem could escalate more once FSDb is wide-released. Once FSDb is available to all, I would advise anyone thinking of purchasing it to do a 1-month subscription first. You might love it; great! Or you might hate it, at which point I just saved you $14801 that you can put into TSLA. Assuming informed buyers and current FSD pricing, I don't see take rates being high enough to be material to the SP. I feel that FSDb still needs a year or two to become polished enough to justify TODAY's $15,000 pricing. At that point, it would be feature complete and a very reliable and comfortable L2 system.

I love FSDb, and I love being part of the testing process. I send snapshots and send Tesla detailed emails describing problems and suggesting feature improvements, even beyond FSD. But I cringe a bit when I hear the bulls get overenthusiastic about FSD and robotaxi potential. It will need more time. And one more observation: for any robotaxi that intends to operate without a driver, all doors and trunk lids need an ability to auto-close. Imagine passengers getting out and leaving the doors open. Would the car just drive off like that? Not safely. And in the S3XY lineup, only the Model X has auto-closing doors. So unless 3/Y get autodoor retrofits, don't count on them being the driverless robotaxi fleet of the future.

We also know, from past comments and reaffirmation in this earnings call, that they are working on a Robotaxi-specific platform. Aside from doors closing, we could talk about the sensor suite from camera placement to potential redundancies. We could talk about charging, unless we plan to staff chargers with humans to plug in and unplug Robotaxis needing some extra juice -- of course Elon postulated in 2016 that within two years a vehicle with FSD would be able to summon to the owner across the US inclusive of charging itself along the way.

There are plethora other details that would need to be hammered out for turning consumer vehicles into Robotaxis, but I'm doubtful that's even the intent at this point. I'm really curious to see what this new Robotaxi platform looks like and how it differs from the consumer cars...

 

[Knightshade]

My guess is that the RoboTaxi is simply a compact Model without steering wheel and pedals, perhaps with upgraded FSD hardware, and a different battery pack.

Or at least the RoboTaxi and the other compact Models are the same platform with s lot of common parts.

At a minimum I expect a factory which makes RoboTaxis to easily be able to make the other Models.

My hope is they do NOT design the vehicle to depend on L4+ RT capability-- because I believe they will need to expand TAM sooner than they'll have L4 working (esp. in the EU)

We still see legacy mistakes in 3/Y that spawn from them believing L4+ was nearer than it really was (the poor blind spot alerting compared to nearly everything else on the market is one that comes up a LOT in the 3/Y forums for example-- because they assumed the car would be doing all your lane changes and it wouldn't be needed....another that comes up a lot is lack of rear cross-traffic alert because they assumed the car would always self-park which it does backing in and thus you'd never exit a spot except forward)- so in line with your thinking they should be designing a compact human-controls car and if they can engineer easy ways to remove those later, great- but it shouldn't be the focus of the design.

The next step down Tesla should be the Model 2/Z.

The letter Q has had so much stupid attached to it in the last few years it’s kinda ruined the whole letter for me…

 

[Accident]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583081400307453954

 

[Richard007]

I’m a buyer today - will be buying all day. On sale!

I want to pay for my model x I’ll order in Q1

 

[wtlloyd]

I'm going to get margin called today....again.

Those bastages are going to get some more shares from me.

But I sold a rental house and when I get the proceeds I WILL plow it right back into Tesla.
The future is so bright, I gotta wear shades.

Congrats! For me, the first traunch of an inheritance will settle in my accounts early next week. Goin' shoppin'! And I've got only one store to visit!

 

[Drax7]

For now, The twitter overhang gives the shorts the impunity to sell at any price
and gain. Elon dangling a 4 trillion valuation carrot apparently is viewed
as a pump to sell at a higher price.

Need to get beyond this before the stock trades on fundamentals.