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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Don't want to speak for @Mengy but I really don't think he was referring to packing the lots, more like packing the books. GM reported revenue of ~42 billion for the 3rd qtr '22 and if you multiply 110,000 vehicles by an avg price of $45,000, that's almost $5 billion they were able to add to revenue, more than half again their net income for the quarter. So those additional vehicles "delivered" to their dealers was the difference between profit and loss for the quarter.

Figures don't lie, but liers figure...
Sure but the conflating revenue and profit. Is GM ASP really 45k? Anyway 10% increase in sales? 10% increase in profit? They blew way past that so it would have been an odd time to pad the books with a maneuver like this. Anyway, good to see any good news on the auto side and GM is among my least fav OEMs (Toyota-support for oil and fight against science, VW- terrible company; these two take the cake).
 
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Peter Lynch Man on the street report:

Recent travel to one of the largest cities in the US, had an early flight. Asked the hotel attendant about reliable transport to the airport, he suggested a particular cab company. This company had an app, could schedule rides ahead, had flat rate of like $43.At the appointed time, the app listed driver as "being assigned", a few minutes later the app changed over to driver is 42 minutes away. Unacceptable to my airport needs so checked out Uber. Fastest Uber at that point was an uber comfort, like $44, ordered it, was 6 minutes away. Was set to be a tesla model Y.

Car shows up, the guy says he drives a lot. The car was some special deal between TSLA and Uber where drivers get to rent the car by the week for in excess of $500. Driver still pays for charging, this was in excess of $230 for our driver on a recent week. The driver insisted he was still making money, I have no idea how. Our fare was 30 minutes, driver got $20. I asked why not just buy a tesla (he had been driving for a long time) but he said the economics were not there for his family.

I am not sure of all the implications of this, but I liked hearing about it as an investor, both in the short term for car sales, leasing, rates of return, and rider exposure. Longer term, I like it as the start of robotaxi fleet.

Has anyone else offered input on this specific relationship?
 
How does Hyundai/Kia fit into these plans?
And BYD, Honda, Nissan, all the smaller Japanese OEMs, the 50 Chinese manufactures we have never heard of, Renault- second largest EV maker in Europe, etc. I have a battery spreadsheet that is more comprehensive than that tripe. For what it is worth...we are far far short of the battery capacity needed.
 
But don't underestimate the economic value of untapped mineral resources in Ukraine needed for the transition to EVs and renewables.

Map of Lithium reserve locations in Ukraine: (about half the sites are in disputed oblasts)

Mappa-giacimenti-di-litio-in-Ucraina2.jpg


Particularly, an arc of 6 lithium resource sites are located in Donetsk oblast (NW of the occupied city of Mariupol). Further, it seems that 11 of 14 total Ukranian sites are located within ~300km of Zaporizhia NPP.
 
For Tesla in particular battery capacity should be 6TWh (3 TWh is only internal cell manufacturing), The battery investment is wrong, no way are Tesla spending $400B of battery investment.

Yeah, that's a misquote from a recent projection from an analyst: (notice the missing item)


The price tag will be steep: Tesla could spend an estimated $400 billion or more over the next eight years to build new vehicle assembly and battery plants around the globe, and another $200 billion or more to build or buy the batteries, including the cost of the raw materials.

BTW, this estimate is wildly wrong. Giga Texas (including bty cathode plant) will cost less than $10B when complete. 8 more just like it would cost no more than $80B. That's just 20% of what this "analyst" estimates. He may be thinking of what other companies would spend... :p

Cheers!
 
Electrek is reporting Tesla is hiring recruiters and a support team for a "high-volume" hiring effort in Quebec. Looks like the next Gigafactory is going to be in Quebec.
Companies in Quebec have to have French names by law. Many big insurance companies moved out of Montreal because of that requirement. (Unless that's changed recently).
 
Companies in Quebec have to have French names by law. Many big insurance companies moved out of Montreal because of that requirement. (Unless that's changed recently).
Still the case
*However*
A company with a registered tradmark that does not have a French version of the trademark registered can use that trademark on buildings and such. Even if it is not the company name.
Advertising (and print (web?)) must use the real name.
*Fortunately*
Tesla (as the SI unit of induction) is in the Larousse dictionary, so may be fine anyway, unless it runs afoul of the rules around the use of names.
*Further*
There is legislation (currently tabled? ) to tighten all this up, so *shrugg*.
 
Two new data points for Tesla China since the start of Q4:
  1. Giga Shanghai did not shut down for the National Holiday over the 1st week of Oct; instead paying employees triple-time to continue car production, and
  2. Tesla is now continuing to load "Ro-Ro" car carrier ships throughout the night at Luchao port, amid record pace for Tesla shipping departures from Shanghai.
【Oct.25.2022】Tesla Night Transport, Logistics System Speeds Up \Giga shanghai\4K # 3


It can only add up to one inescapable conclusion:

DEMAND PROBLEMS! /S ;)

Cheers to the Longs!
 
Preaching to the choir I know, but I love how TSLA is a tech stock when US tech is down, a Chinese stock when China is down, and an auto stock when auto is down. /rant
And BYD, Honda, Nissan, all the smaller Japanese OEMs, the 50 Chinese manufactures we have never heard of, Renault- second largest EV maker in Europe, etc. I have a battery spreadsheet that is more comprehensive than that tripe. For what it is worth...we are far far short of the battery capacity needed.
Worth noting that Renault is abandoning their own EV platform and going with the shared Mistu/Nissan/Renault platform for the replacement. As many have predicted, the partnerships and consolidation in the industry are happening.
 
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Two new data points for Tesla China since the start of Q4:
  1. Giga Shanghai did not shut down for the National Holiday over the 1st week of Oct; instead paying employees triple-time to continue car production, and
  2. Tesla is now continuing to load "Ro-Ro" car carrier ships throughout the night at Luchao port, amid record pace for Tesla shipping departures from Shanghai.
【Oct.25.2022】Tesla Night Transport, Logistics System Speeds Up \Giga shanghai\4K # 3


It can only add up to one inescapable conclusion:

DEMAND PROBLEMS! /S ;)

Cheers to the Longs!


Trick Or Treat Troy gives a treat post.
Should be lots of deliveries in Europe in Q4.

 
Map of Lithium reserve locations in Ukraine: (about half the sites are in disputed oblasts)

View attachment 867680

Particularly, an arc of 6 lithium resource sites are located in Donetsk oblast (NW of the occupied city of Mariupol). Further, it seems that 11 of 14 total Ukranian sites are located within ~300km of Zaporizhia NPP.

And here we thought the end of oil would mean the end of energy wars!
 
And here we thought the end of oil would mean the end of energy wars!
Just the oil wars. And actually only for a short period of time because the lithium in batteries can be used again, so once there are enough BEVs on the road lithium mining will be peanuts.
 
Preaching to the choir I know, but I love how TSLA is a tech stock when US tech is down, a Chinese stock when China is down, and an auto stock when auto is down. /rant

Yeah, but on the bright side, Tesla is up when automakers without union and dealership baggage and with high profit margins and unified renewable energy divisions with rapidly scaling state-of-the-art battery manufacturing and leading-edge artificial intelligence capabilities are rallying. So we've got that going for us! /s
 
Car shows up, the guy says he drives a lot. The car was some special deal between TSLA and Uber where drivers get to rent the car by the week for in excess of $500. Driver still pays for charging, this was in excess of $230 for our driver on a recent week. The driver insisted he was still making money, I have no idea how. Our fare was 30 minutes, driver got $20. I asked why not just buy a tesla (he had been driving for a long time) but he said the economics were not there for his family.


None of the math of that rent-a-tesla-to-do-uber program makes any sense at all to me versus the driver directly leasing or buying it themselves other than perhaps it's available to those with otherwise horrendously bad, or no, credit?

Anyway the program is actually through Hertz- $334/week plus taxes and fees and one has to expect that'll be an SR+...LR is also available but no price listed.

 
Companies in Quebec have to have French names by law. Many big insurance companies moved out of Montreal because of that requirement. (Unless that's changed recently).
This type of requirement seems like something that would rule out Quebec from the start, I doubt it's the only ridiculous law on the books there. Surprised Elon would even consider it.
 
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"La Tes Gigafactory"? 😃

Companies in Quebec have to have French names by law. Many big insurance companies moved out of Montreal because of that requirement. (Unless that's changed recently).

Still the case
*However*
A company with a registered tradmark that does not have a French version of the trademark registered can use that trademark on buildings and such. Even if it is not the company name.
Advertising (and print (web?)) must use the real name.
*Fortunately*
Tesla (as the SI unit of induction) is in the Larousse dictionary, so may be fine anyway, unless it runs afoul of the rules around the use of names.
*Further*
There is legislation (currently tabled? ) to tighten all this up, so *shrugg*.

"Tesla Giga Usine" - TGU in short, sorta like the TGV's (French bullet trains, Trains a Grande Vitesse )
 
This type of requirement seems like something that would rule out Quebec from the start, I doubt it's the only ridiculous law on the books there. Surprised Elon would even consider it.
The problem I see with Quebec is snow. Pumping out 10,000 vehicles a week means a constant stream of vehicles coming out the factory and onto trucks. When it's snowing a foot outside, that is a problem....

(Internet search says they get more than 10 feet of snow/year)