Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TSLA Pilot]

None of the math of that rent-a-tesla-to-do-uber program makes any sense at all to me versus the driver directly leasing or buying it themselves other than perhaps it's available to those with otherwise horrendously bad, or no, credit?

Anyway the program is actually through Hertz- $334/week plus taxes and fees and one has to expect that'll be an SR+...LR is also available but no price listed.

https://www.uber.com/us/en/drive/vehicle-solutions/hertz/tesla/

Even worse, my very limited sample size of Tesla Ubers reveals that there is next to zero driver support for drivers new to Tesla.

Even in Austin, returning from the shareholders meeting, I found out that my Uber driver was charging at Superchargers 100% of the time, to his substantial financial and time detriment, because he was unaware he could charge at home . . . . I had to show him the UMC, which was under the load floor in the trunk (which he didn't know existed). Furthermore, he had no idea how to engage cruise control or autopilot, operate the HVAC, and so forth. Just a fiasco, and he too was on the very expensive weekly/Hertz program, but was likely to get off it soon, mostly because he wasn't up to speed on anything Tesla.

Just stunning how inept that program appears, but I can see a great future for Robotaxis so why bother helping Uber drivers I guess? (In a way, they're all "Dead men walking" career-wise.)

This all speaks volumes as to the cash flow potential for Tesla's RT network, particularly since I believe they plan to use their own ever-growing fleet of off-lease Teslas (no need to beat up brand new cars for that sort of abusive service, especially as someone else has already paid for the off-lease cars.

 

[Mengy]

For Tesla in particular battery capacity should be 6TWh (3 TWh is only internal cell manufacturing), The battery investment is wrong, no way are Tesla spending $400B of battery investment.

I've seen Warren Redlich state this 6TWh target for Tesla in 2030 a few times but I've always thought Tesla was actually planning to hit 3TWh total battery capacity for 2030, meaning 1.5TWh from suppliers and 1.5TWh from themselves.

Is the 2030 target truly 6TWh battery capacity, or is it 3TWh per the battery day slide deck?

 

[Singuy]

Trick Or Treat Troy gives a treat post.
Should be lots of deliveries in Europe in Q4.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585234899493335040

He forgot to say "however 10k cars were destroyed in the process which are not recoverable".

 

[TSLA Pilot]

The problem I see with Quebec is snow. Pumping out 10,000 vehicles a week means a constant stream of vehicles coming out the factory and onto trucks. When it's snowing a foot outside, that is a problem....

(Internet search says they get more than 10 feet of snow/year)

Easily mitigated by proper design? Self-loading cars drive directly from the factory output gate onto railway cars via covered bay, all using Tesla Vision.

Should already be the case at all GF's, but perhaps I ask too much of Tesla Vision?

It's the software model using Dojo/AI: train the system, test, iterate, then replicate millions of times.

 

[CLK350]

I definitely saw the link of the original Twitter thread posted here (where I discovered it),
but I thought it was useful to post directly the Reuter images.
Very helpful for laymen out there.
View attachment 867672
View attachment 867673View attachment 867674

W/ edit from MikeAtkinson's post above "There are several mistakes in this, some of which were pointed out in the Twitter thread.
For Tesla in particular battery capacity should be 6TWh (3 TWh is only internal cell manufacturing), The battery investment is wrong, no way are Tesla spending $400B of battery investment. "

Super informative - would love to see also the 2022 actual (and announced pre 2021) and 2023 planned equivalent data to add a touch of reality to these pronouncements.

Although those who have been following EV developments know that only VW is a real contender for second place, 5 years or so behind Tesla (excluding the Chinese and their Western brands like Volvo).

 

[Usain]

Just the oil wars. And actually only for a short period of time because the lithium in batteries can be used again, so once there are enough BEVs on the road lithium mining will be peanuts.

Recycling will never slow the lithium business. There will never be enough batteries. Lithium mining will continue apace as long as lithium batteries dominate.

 

[ZachF]

Google’s numbers are more terrible the deeper you look. It’ll be interesting to see how Facebook fares today.

PMC cost bloat is getting ridiculous at some of these companies. It’s IMHO the reason productivity growth right now is so terrible. There are growing legions of $200k/y+ labor cost employees that are focused on ESG/DEI crap instead of creating actual value, and Big Tech seems the worst offender… luckily with Tesla being the major exception.

 

[Singuy]

None of the math of that rent-a-tesla-to-do-uber program makes any sense at all to me versus the driver directly leasing or buying it themselves other than perhaps it's available to those with otherwise horrendously bad, or no, credit?

Anyway the program is actually through Hertz- $334/week plus taxes and fees and one has to expect that'll be an SR+...LR is also available but no price listed.

https://www.uber.com/us/en/drive/vehicle-solutions/hertz/tesla/

A couple of things that make sense.

1. Leasing is out of the question because a real uber driver clocks in 3k miles every 2 weeks while there's a mile limited on leasing.
2. Wear/tear/depreciation is very high if you were to buy a new Tesla clocking 78k miles/year, killing bumper to bumper warranty within months/battery warranty in over a year and the car depreciates like a rock.

So this is why Hertz/uber charges so much once you factor in the fact that you get unlimited miles and unlimited warranty with a rental (also free tires, cabin filters/replacement interior wear items which are high for uber drivers).

 

[Unpilot]

PMC cost bloat

??

 

[ZachF]

??

Professional Managerial Class

 

[Krugerrand]

This type of requirement seems like something that would rule out Quebec from the start, I doubt it's the only ridiculous law on the books there. Surprised Elon would even consider it.

Meh. Surprised Elon would choose to put a factory in China given he’d have to partner with a Chinese JV - oh, wait.

You think a provincial law about what the company needs to be named is some sort of obstacle? You think the economic benefits from a Tesla factory in that province don’t immediately outweigh such a law? Or that Elon can’t come up with a creative way to navigate that? Please.

 

[Krugerrand]

The problem I see with Quebec is snow. Pumping out 10,000 vehicles a week means a constant stream of vehicles coming out the factory and onto trucks. When it's snowing a foot outside, that is a problem....

(Internet search says they get more than 10 feet of snow/year)

Because the snowplow has yet to be invented. Tesla might have to strap a plow onto a semi -

 

[traxila]

Big buying at the open to keep price flat.

Maybe EM is buying some.

 

[ammulder]

Feels weird to see the NASDAQ hammered and TSLA doing OK this morning. I know, I know, the day is still young…

 

[Krugerrand]

Even worse, my very limited sample size of Tesla Ubers reveals that there is next to zero driver support for drivers new to Tesla.

Even in Austin, returning from the shareholders meeting, I found out that my Uber driver was charging at Superchargers 100% of the time, to his substantial financial and time detriment, because he was unaware he could charge at home . . . . I had to show him the UMC, which was under the load floor in the trunk (which he didn't know existed). Furthermore, he had no idea how to engage cruise control or autopilot, operate the HVAC, and so forth. Just a fiasco, and he too was on the very expensive weekly/Hertz program, but was likely to get off it soon, mostly because he wasn't up to speed on anything Tesla.

Just stunning how inept that program appears, but I can see a great future for Robotaxis so why bother helping Uber drivers I guess? (In a way, they're all "Dead men walking" career-wise.)

This all speaks volumes as to the cash flow potential for Tesla's RT network, particularly since I believe they plan to use their own ever-growing fleet of off-lease Teslas (no need to beat up brand new cars for that sort of abusive service, especially as someone else has already paid for the off-lease cars.

You’d think if you were going to have a business, you’d educate yourself but apparently not. Too stupid to be an Uber driver.

 

[Mengy]

Good start to the morning!

 

[Singuy]

Google’s numbers are more terrible the deeper you look. It’ll be interesting to see how Facebook fares today.

PMC cost bloat is getting ridiculous at some of these companies. It’s IMHO the reason productivity growth right now is so terrible. There are growing legions of $200k/y+ labor cost employees that are focused on ESG/DEI crap instead of creating actual value, and Big Tech seems the worst offender… luckily with Tesla being the major exception.

Would still take Google any day with a PE of 18 than all these "value names" with PE of like..30 and 50. People here complain about Teslas PE as if it means anything when most Tech companies having a lower PE than Walmart and Disney.

 

[elasalle]

Trick Or Treat Troy gives a treat post.
Should be lots of deliveries in Europe in Q4.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585234899493335040

21Q4 had 20 ships to EU 22 total ...

 

[2daMoon]

Good start to the morning!

Don't get too excited.

It may turn out to only be one of those measly 5% days.

 

[Nocturnal]

Would still take Google any day with a PE of 18 than all these "value names" with PE of like..30 and 50. People here complain about Teslas PE as if it means anything when most Tech companies having a lower PE than Walmart and Disney.

It's a great company and all, but Chipotle is a great example. PE ratio of 57 right now. Does WS really expect that much growth from a taco shop? Seems like WS is stuck in the 90s and 2000s when Tech earnings would plummet if the economy was struggling. Tech is far more mature than it used to be and shouldn't be punished this hard IMO.