Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chenkers]

TSLA is down 3.26%. Not sure it's that unusual/Elon selling based on this:

I'd say we can expect another Form 4 tonight for Elon selling today. Lots of selling blocks and big candles that have a similar look to yesterday, although with lesser volume. Please let this be the end of it.

 

[lascavarian]

I hope that Twitter bank uses dollars and not some crypto scam

 

[EVDRVN]

I'd say we can expect another Form 4 tonight for Elon selling today. Lots of selling blocks and big candles that have a similar look to yesterday, although with lesser volume. Please let this be the end of it.

What if he needs money for Christmas and Black Friday, he never promised about that

 

[EVDRVN]

I hope that Twitter bank uses dollars and not some crypto scam

Twittercoin

 

[ElectricIAC]

I hope that Twitter bank uses crypto and not some fiat scam

FTFY

 

[2daMoon]

I hope that Twitter bank uses the dollar scam and not some crypto scam

FTFY (ninjed by @ElectricIAC)

It seems to me that Twitter bank (Bank-X?) will be set up to transact between different currencies and likely some crypto as well. The key being that the bank's transactions will bypass the charges accrued by the Card companies and any others playing man-in-the-middle games for profit currently.

 

[Gigapress]

Approximate current production rates:

Factory	Current Weekly	Extrapolated to Quarter	Extrapolated to Year
Shanghai	20	260	1040
Fremont	11	143	572
Berlin	2.3	30	120
Austin	2.1	27	109
Total	35 thousand	460 thousand	1.84 million

Shanghai comes from latest report. Fremont roughly back-calculated from Q3 results showing about 140-145K production. Berlin & Austin based on historical ramp speed and recent comments from Tesla on them hitting 2k per week recently.

40K/Week Goal in Reach
Per Elon and Drew on the Q2 earnings call back in July, it looked like 40K per week was in reach for the end of the year. We're almost there now.

If Berlin and Austin each hit their 5K per week EoY goals, then 40K will be achieved even without any further growth from Fremont and Shanghai.

Spoiler: Q2 Earnings Call Comments

Emmanuel Rosner

Yeah. My follow-up was actually on the supply side. So it was very encouraging to see that you're quantifying your current installed capacity at basically already in excess of 1.9 million units installed currently. How quickly do you think that you can fill that capacity?

Elon Musk

Well, I mean, we -- I think we've got a good chance of exiting this year at 40,000 vehicles a week.

Drew Baglino

Yeah. I mean our internal plans are to have the capacity utilized by the end of the year. It takes time to ramp there. It will be a challenge.

There's a lot that needs to happen to get there but that's what we're working on.

Elon Musk

Yeah. We've had many 30,000-car weeks already, so I think a 40,000-car week is within reach by the end of this year.

Drew Baglino

Shanghai and Fremont, as we said last month for record production and they're really fire to better doing really well. But then also Berlin are coming on strong. Theoretically, they also had record quarters, last quarter. And if we ramp them to the capacity shown in the deck by the end of this year, we'll be at that rate.

Elon Musk

There's always a lot of uncertainty like the production looks like S-curve, and that intermediate part of S-curve the difficult to bridge that with high certainty. But the end part of the S-curve, you can say, I think you can have a lot more certainty. And so that's why I'm confident we'll get to 5,000 cars a week at -- in Austin and Berlin by the end of this year or early next year and probably but not certainly, 10,000 cars a week at both locations by the end of next year.

Shanghai Underestimated?
Moreover, the 20K/wk rate estimate for Shanghai is probably too low, because it doesn't account for any reduced production during the holiday week, as Dodger pointed out. Maybe Shanghai is really doing 21 or 22K/wk now. On June 22nd, Reuters reported that 22K/wk was the target for the line upgrades according to a leaked internal memo.

If Tesla worked only 1 shift during the "National Holiday" (1st week of Oct), then that's 22,325 per week production at Giga Shanghai. Ironic since Roto-Reuters reported 22K/week capacity, 20.5K planned for Q4.

Tesla Shanghai adds to inventory at highest rate ever in October - brokerage data | Reuters | Nov 9, 2022​

​

Exclusive: Tesla to keep output at upgraded Shanghai plant below maximum -sources | Sep 29, 2022​

 

[Artful Dodger]

If I may....

Price action indicates to me that EM is still liquidating.

High volume and similar volume spikes to the past couple of days.

Maybe, but I don't think so. Total volume on the 3 days we know Elon sold was highest on Tue, when though he sold the fewest number of shares (Elon's Fri sales vol was = Mon+Tue).

In fact, there was 20% higher volume yesterday vs Fri, even though Elon sold half as many shares on Tue vs. Fri.

I think the cat is right: is this mostly 'wannabees' / jonnycumlacky's shorting via puts. Momo trades. It's going down because it went down.

Look at TSLA 's beta vs. the macros. TSLA today looks nothing like F,M-T. We're a bit below the market, but nothing atypical.

 

[traxila]

TSLA is down 3.26%. Not sure it's that unusual/Elon selling based on this:
View attachment 872897

OMG. Look at the volume.

He is selling.

He will tell us when he is done. Hopefully this afternoon.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Twittercoin

The whole privately run crypto market will change when national governments begin issuing their own cryptocurrencies.

 

[mickificki]

OMG. Look at the volume.

He is selling.

He will tell us when he is done. Hopefully this afternoon.

perfecto! just in time for the CPI sell off tomorrow!

 

[SOULPEDL]

So RORO finally has goods to carry both ways ... China->EU->Taiwan

Really good point that speaks to margins as well, maybe even helps with the delivery waves, or volume at least.
Do you have a (simple) map of the paths traveled and what they might be carrying? This is best served visually me thinks!

 

[Gigapress]

Does anyone know how credible China Merchants Bank International is? Normally we get Shanghai production data from the Chinese Passenger Car Association.

I'm also skeptical because this 88k production number was exclusively reported by Reuters along with very misleading commentary about inventory buildup possibly indicating demand weakness, with zero mention of the explanation provided multiple times by Tesla that it happened because they started unwinding the wave and ran out of transportation capacity to ship ever-larger batches of cars.

edit:
I see on second read, Reuters did say this, but it's still not very clear and it's poor journalism not to mention that Tesla explicitly said demand is strong and all that happened was a shift in logistics timing.

Tesla’s pattern has been to produce more vehicles at the beginning of a quarter and to focus on deliveries in the closing weeks, a practice Musk has said the company is working to change by better pacing deliveries.

Some analysts have said Tesla will need to carry more vehicles in inventory as a buffer to smooth delivery over the course of a quarter. The company reported $2 billion in inventory at the end of the third quarter, including unsold cars. That was up 60% from $1.2 billion a quarter earlier.

 

[Rammstein]

Looks like Elon is selling again today

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Looks like Elon is selling again today

Or maybe Uncle Leo had enough

 

[jabloomf1230]

Looks like Elon is selling again today

This is going to end up as a running joke like "two weeks".

 

[wipster]

Wonder where $TSLA would be at today if Elon was not done selling

Don't think Elon selling is really what's driving the downturn today, check out all the other BEV companies, with the exception of F and GM, they're all down far more than Tesla...

 

[wipster]

This is going to end up as a running joke like "two weeks".

Hi Bob!

 

[Cherry Wine]

OMG. Look at the volume.

He is selling.

He will tell us when he is done. Hopefully this afternoon.

I do think the fact that he hasn't said "I'm done" lends credence to the idea that he is selling more.

This is definitely up there as one of the most brutal drawdowns in TSLA I've seen in my 4 years.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Or maybe Uncle Leo had enough

Paper hands.