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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
mars_or_bust
Member
Actually, the FSD release delays are very bullish.
Obviously self driving cars are a MUCH more complex matter than almost anyone predicted. Which means that once Tesla solves it (and looking at the latest videos Tesla IS solving it), all other companies will realistically need at least five years to solve it themselves. The programming and hardware complexities and the required data and are simply too much for half baked approaches using faulty techniques that virtually all other companies uses today. They will have to pivot in order to be competitive. But that kind of pivot will take years and tens of billions, by which time many of them will go bankrupt anyway. And the remainder will likely just licence FSD from Tesla.
As a technology nerd, I've been excited about FSD for a long time.
But as an investor, do I dare get excited about FSD as a catalyst? I must admit, this is starting to happen. I'm starting to think that it will be a short time before the market realizes what Tesla has accomplished.
But as an investor, do I dare get excited about FSD as a catalyst? I must admit, this is starting to happen. I'm starting to think that it will be a short time before the market realizes what Tesla has accomplished.
Yes, and not only for NOA (available with Enchanced Autopilot or FSD). It will also improve safety for all Tesla's running the FSD computer hardware (Apr 2020+) or any Oct 2016+ Tesla that has received a computer upgrade.
SAFETY will not be optional on Tesla cars; It will be STANDARD. Only the convenience features will be extra cost. But if your standard autopilot Tesla thinks it's about to be involved, it will react the same way that an FSD-enabled car would for prevention and mitigation, because they're running the same software stack.
Me too! (Winter is not coming, it's here in the Great White North). But I love this progress! Go Tesla! Go Autopilot Team!
Cheers!
You can always turn FSD Beta off, so I'd suggest you ask for it. That way, you can choose when to have it running and when not to (done this multiple times for my parents Model Y). Once you get the Beta, it doesn't seem to matter how often you use it.
Informative pic for the battery chemistry it represents. However, there are many different Li-ion chemistries, whch can vary significantly...I haven't vetted these numbers but they seem reasonable at first read.
Front page of today's NY Times. "Electric Vehicles Start To Enter the Car-Buying Mainstream". If I was new to this subject I would come away not knowing this was mostly due to Tesla. I also would be afraid of an unreliable and dangerous charging system.
From the article
Electric car buyers used words like “love” and “awesome” to describe their vehicles. Many said they would never buy a gasoline car again, but many others said they intended to keep at least one conventional vehicle, because traveling long distances by electric car can be inconvenient and sometimes impossible because of difficulties in finding charging stations.
The lack of fast and convenient places to charge electric cars on longer trips has been the main frustration. Chargers are few and far between outside coastal urban areas.
But she hadn’t considered that the battery would drain faster when the car was weighed down with her daughter’s possessions and her husband, Dave Daiber, who is 6 feet 4 inches tall.
Less than two hours into the trip, Ms. Milligan realized that the car was not going to make it to Toledo, Ohio, where she had planned to charge. Instead, they got off the highway in Findlay. Of the four chargers in town, one was behind a locked gate; another was at a Toyota dealership that would not let a Volkswagen use its charger; a third would charge only Teslas; and the fourth had been installed recently and was not yet working.
The family wound up spending the night at a hotel and making the rest of the trip in a rented van
A few electric car owners surveyed said the charging stations they stopped at sometimes lacked shelter and felt unsafe.
From the article
Electric car buyers used words like “love” and “awesome” to describe their vehicles. Many said they would never buy a gasoline car again, but many others said they intended to keep at least one conventional vehicle, because traveling long distances by electric car can be inconvenient and sometimes impossible because of difficulties in finding charging stations.
The lack of fast and convenient places to charge electric cars on longer trips has been the main frustration. Chargers are few and far between outside coastal urban areas.
But she hadn’t considered that the battery would drain faster when the car was weighed down with her daughter’s possessions and her husband, Dave Daiber, who is 6 feet 4 inches tall.
Less than two hours into the trip, Ms. Milligan realized that the car was not going to make it to Toledo, Ohio, where she had planned to charge. Instead, they got off the highway in Findlay. Of the four chargers in town, one was behind a locked gate; another was at a Toyota dealership that would not let a Volkswagen use its charger; a third would charge only Teslas; and the fourth had been installed recently and was not yet working.
The family wound up spending the night at a hotel and making the rest of the trip in a rented van
A few electric car owners surveyed said the charging stations they stopped at sometimes lacked shelter and felt unsafe.
I don't think that is possible.
Yeah they can say they aren't battery constrained as long as they aren't making the CT and as long as the Semi uses 2170. Lots of posts on here as to why the 2170 could be preferable or at least workable for the semi. For the CT that's not the case. I'm a bit of a cynic here on the 4680 launch and ramp and had stopped paying attention but checked in again over the last few days as weather allowed some wandering. The good news: there is a lot of opportunity to improve the 4680 from where it is today. Today it is basically a really large cell with no special chemistry, it's easy to assemble into packs, and a very thick canister that enables incorporation into the structural packs giving lower pack costs due to assembly enhancements. Chemistry changes could further reduce cost and improve power density (that's the hope anyways). If they can nail down the DBE process they'll save even more money (and help the environment as the wet process is not a great process).
The CT needs the structural battery pack is my understanding. That's why all the agility in the world won't help because the 2170's just dont have the structure to create a rigid pack. That's where the super thick canister on the 4680 comes into play (likely other benefits there too but it's besides the point). So, it is perfectly true that the lack of 4680s does not hinder overall production. Also true that until they get the 4680 production higher they cant sell the CT. Once you see the cell performance hit that 5000 pack a month target I bet you start to see the CT release date firmed up. Since they know they have 4680 issues (including having to shelve the process at the Kato road facility) they have been in no hurry to sell the CT, certainly not at a run rate of 1000 or so a month when they can use those cells to sell 2000 MY a month. It would be idiotic to create more truck demand than they can fulfill while crimping profits. Also, I assume that there are accounting issues with slow launches re equipment depreciation, etc that make a slow launch more expensive but I am sure the accountant or gigapress or unk45 can weigh in on that.
Seems like sometime next year they'll finally have the 4680 production going fast enough to start making the CT and I would be confident in a bet that 2023 is the year of the CT launch. I am not buying a high end one so for me it will be 2024 at the earliest or even 2025. I just need a work truck. Til then I'll be pretty happy with the Ford Lightning, I will miss the stainless steel skin most of all. Dent resistant truck is just brilliant. I expect that Tesla will lag Ford in truck production well into 2024. That's not a bad thing for the environment. I have no idea where GM will be with the silverado launch. Next year you should finally see GM produce something other than the bolt/volt at scale. Should...GM has been a company of should haves.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
I've owned a Bolt EV since 2017 and I've done numerous road trips in that vehicle. Unless you really know what you are doing and you plan for every contingency, road trips in a non-Tesla can be quite difficult.
The story over the next couple of years will be how the only reliable charging network is Tesla. Be ready when Tesla starts allowing non-Teslas to use their network. It's yet another catalyst.
Weekend read
Guy makes 1.5 mil on Tesla by investing 300k in 2020 and now went to zero because of FTX.
Guy makes 1.5 mil on Tesla by investing 300k in 2020 and now went to zero because of FTX.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Article should be titled “Tell me you’re not driving a Tesla without telling me you’re not driving a Tesla.”
The Accountant
Active Member
I believe the point @mars_or_bust was making is that if it takes Tesla this long to achieve FSD, it will take the competition even much longer.
As an extreme example,
If it took Tesla only 3 months to complete FSD, then I can imagine the competition would be 9 months to two years behind.
If it took Tesla 7 years to complete FSD, then I can imagine the competition would be 5-7 years behind.
Well, most of the time was spent trying different techniques, pivoting from one way of doing things to another, and hitting a lot of barriers. I think once it's solved, it may not take very long for the competition to get to FSD because the path is laid out. James Douma believes once it's solved, it'll eventually become someone's highschool science fair project. Tesla just needs to make sure to capitalized on all of their hard work by licensing/selling the path to the industry.
I do think this is one of the reason to have Dojo plus a gigantic infrastructure set up as they are ready to lift the world into a FSD world for a fee of course. The rest of the industry doesn't even know where to start because they don't have a multi million dollar server farm running proprietary compilers. They have to rely on other companies which haven't solved FSD or Tesla.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm of the mind that the competition is irrelevant.
Probably further behind due to the time it takes them to realize Tesla has solved it and that they should follow. This doesn't count having to find the talented engineers to create their own. (I'm assuming that they get the R&D money from the government because they won't have the money in house.)
Really? You should work in the problem space for awhile then. If you think the path is just pure vision, no sensor fusion and a large NN compute cluster, then this seemingly is the reason folks are so mad the impossible is late.
And if you think that article you posted from Reddit might not be written by a bot, then I've got some NFTs to sell you!
Yes, because Musk seem to think so. He said eventually every EV will have good range and FSD and Tesla's advantage is in manufacturing. This is with him also talking about how NO ONE ELSE is even trying generalized FSD. He also built Dojo for the purpose of helping the rest solve FSD once they see Tesla have done it.
You add all those things together and pretty much Tesla is saying once it's solved, FSD will spread pretty rapidly and Tesla will be the one capitalizing on it.
The Accountant
Active Member
I've been of that mindset too.
I have worked at 3 legacy companies in the following industries: Pharma, Beverage and Retail/Media. They are all recognizable names.
One of these companies is no longer in business due to a disrupter entering the space.
I have worked in start-ups as well and see the difference in decision making, risk taking, speed, capital allocation, human resource allocation etc.
Based on my experience, I am confident the competition is irrelevant at this point . .they may become relevant in the future but not anytime soon imo.
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