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It was a whimsical statement.
Tell me you are not a lawyer without telling me you are not a lawyer :)

I make the horrible mistake of making a joke in front of several contract lawyers while in negotiation at Tesla. This is while we were going back and forth with redlines and I said something like..."Can I get a few redvines with these redlines?" I looked up and saw this

Interestingly, these limited non-complete release didn't talk about lanes. But it isn't the full release notes, so let's hope there's more pages talking about lanes net improvements!
And now we know why, thanks to @Mardak for pointing out that the 2nd page of the release notes are actually from March per their post that links to the Twitter post from WholeMars.
 
Ok, I had to go look that up. Rigged Hilbert Space was insufficient, because it assumes you know what a Hilbert Space is, lol. So, for those of you who might be interested, from Wikipedia “Hilbert spaces (named after David Hilbert) allow generalizing the methods of linear algebra and calculus from (finite-dimensional) Euclidean vector spaces to spaces that may be infinite-dimensional. Hilbert spaces arise naturally and frequently in mathematics and physics, typically as function spaces.” Ugh.

Yeah I get it was a play on words between physicists. I really do appreciate this forum for enriching my knowledge.

Not really related, but in honor of our grumpiness this week with the SP and assorted other things, I decided to change my avatar. This is a painting, entitled, “Mr Grumpy Pants.” It hangs in our house.
 
Just commenting on the above:

I have this formula for coping with Million Dollar losses :(, here it goes:

MD Ratio.
1Million/Delta (where Delta is your overall portfolio value of Shares & Options. Each Share has Delta of 1) - this assumes 100% Tesla portfolio or just a single stock for simplicity:)

So if you have 10,000 shares, MD Ratio will be 1,000,000/10,000 = 100. So if Tesla goes up 100$, you will be a million $ richer (& that's why right now you are a million $ poorer :) ).

Point being, the larger your losses, the quicker the gains. cheers!!

MD of 1-10 = whale
MD of 10-50 = shark
MD of 50-100 = dolphin ;) I think TMC has a few whales and many sharks and dolphins.

+ if SP goes back to 300, how many millions more will you have gained :) ?

Dolphins are smarter than sharks. I suggest you revamp your rating system from:

MD of 1-10 = whale
MD of 10-50 = shark
MD of 50-100 = dolphin
to:
MD of 1-10 = whale
MD of 10-50 = dolphin
MD of 50-100 = shark

Did I ever tell you about the time I heard two dolphins making love under the full moon at midnight? It was the most beautiful thing I've ever heard, and it put any sounds I've ever heard from human coupling to shame. I'm thinking we need to implement Neuralink so we can use dolphins to run our democracies.
 
I watched it before I knew it was X2 speed and I thought the jerkiness was the car driving aggressively and losing traction under power! Haha! I had to watch it again at 1/2 speed and it's more consistent with what I would expect. FSD is amazingly good at picking out the driveable path most of the time, even when it has precious little to go on. It looks like you have winter tires on, I wish more people would see that it's worth it. This is something Tesla Insurance should take into consideration when developing insurance premiums for drivers in areas that get winter conditions.

What FSD doesn't seem to have any experience with, is how heavy, wet snow just a few inches deep can cause the car to spin out. In my opinion, FSD is going to need to load a new program for conditions that are snowy/icy enough to require different driving techniques than simply using bare road techniques and slowing down a little bit. Because currently it drives the same on snow and ice as it does on clear, dry pavement, even if it slows down a bit and limits the speed of steering angle changes and braking/acceleration intensity. It's going to need different algo's to drive in trickier conditions. It will need to take the road camber (cross-slope) into consideration when it's icy. I do not believe it currently does this on any pavement. If it does, it's only in more extreme cross slope situations. And this is the biggest mistake beginning snow/ice drivers fail to take into consideration when in winter conditions, small changes in lane camber have big impacts on the appropriate speed around a given corner and appropriate speeds on straight roads too.

Yes I have winter tires on. Currently FSD doesn't distinguish the road condition when making turns. So the car doesn't slow down significantly when making a turn, and it will spin out and disengage immediately.

In the video I set the speed at 50kph/30mph so it could make the turns. If I set it to 70kph then it will most likely entering the turn too fast and lost traction. FSD definitely need to learn to slow down on icy and snowy condition.
 
I don’t trust salesmen. Their livelihood depends on me buying something, so naturally they’re going to want to sell me something, and in many cases something I don’t need or want.

You know who else are salesmen? Everyone on WallStreet. First they sell you what they want you to buy, but then they sell you what they want you to sell. Tricky buggers!

Just yesterday I heard my first Christian Financial Adviser ad on the radio. I had no idea that God wanted me to diversify in these tough economical times, but apparently he does. God’s got a whole slew of salesmen working for him and they don’t just work on Sundays.

You know who else are salesmen? Everyone in finance. Everyone in media, TV, radio, every You Tuber, Influencer, and dude/dudette with a Patreon account. Every CEO of every company; Barra, Farley, Diess before he lost his job, Bezos, Zuckerburg, and let’s not forget our favorite Trevor Milton. Sandy Munro is a salesman, Rob, Gali, SMR, Chicken, Troy, the list is endless.

Heck, my neighbor’s a salesman according to the for sale sign in the window of his 1980 something pickup at the end of his driveway, but realistically there’s just not much foot traffic up on The Mountain so that sucker will likely sit there for another 20 years. Nature is doing a good job of reclaiming it. The pine growing up through the passenger side is 6” in diameter now.

My favorite salesman is one that acknowledges my presence when I walk into an establishment and then ***** ***, but not too much in case I have a question. If I do have a question, I just want the truth. If that takes more than a single, simple sentence (basically three words or less ie., See Spot run) I walk, even if I really want the item. I’ll sacrifice for a teaching moment then drive to the next town and try again. Truth.

Mostly, I’ve already done my research before I buy so don’t need a salesman. A lot of times I know more than the salesman about the product I want. There’s a lot of nuance in underwear and snowblowers and I’d rather learn in the comfort of my home. Basically, it really boils down to the product needing to sell itself to get me to buy. Nothing more annoying than your underwear crawling up your butt while blowing snow. It’s an hour long process getting things righted.

What’s my point besides I don’t trust salesmen? Patience. I’m getting to it.

Your *profession* is as a salesman and you feel there are certain rules to abide by within that profession. (I also think rules should be viewed more like loose guidelines and that many times the rules are made to be broken, but that’s a different post.) However, we’re all salesmen in one form or another and we don’t abide by the rules of the trade in executing our sale - including Elon Musk.

You just tried to sell us a story in your post that Elon is a *professional* salesman, therefore he must follow the Salesmen’s Handbook Of Rules And Conduct or risk losing customers. He is not, does not consciously try to be, and as you’ve clearly argued he actually sucks at it.

What he does try to sell us is a personal narrative of what mankind needs to do to live long and prosper based on what he sees happening and that requires him to break every rule that’s ever existed to get us to buy it. That is a big distinction for me. Why? In no particular order: Money honesty. Unabashed openness. Thinking out loud. Willingness to make mistakes and be wrong. Stand in the face of fire. Unwavering love for mankind. I trust Elon for being/doing all those things and many more, none of which are deemed positive traits in a professional salesmen.

I understand from your professional salesman’s view he’s risked and continues to risk losing customers of his products and has lost customers. I’m telling you, there is no other way than to bash us all upside the head. We will not transition if he coddles us, holds our hands, or pussy foots around. He’s going to have to drag us kicking and screaming. A lost customer to Tesla because someone got their undies in a wad over a political opinion of 140 characters or less will be a customer for Rivian, or Lucid, or BYD, whomever manages to survive - and that’s okay. IT’S OKAY. How many times people have confidently announced Tesla can’t do it all, to turn around and complain because Tesla lost a customer in their third cousin twice removed through marriage is absurd, illogical, mushy brain stuff.

It’s okay. Direct those family and friends and neighbors and colleagues to another EV, to another EV stock. Stop complaining about Elon Musk and what he’s doing or not doing to your satisfaction.

Go be a salesman for human kind!

You wear underwear when you blow snow? o_O
 
Elon traditionally likes to roll out new software in the holidays. 11/11 release suggests that they waited to release V11. Few weeks plus few weeks = 24th Dec. We are used to him missing deadlines but 6 weeks with a week spare seems like a good chance of FSD sales recognition to me.

+ possible buyback in Q4

+ possible deferred tax in Q4

on top of blow out quarter already...
 
Will this improve current NOA functionality?
Yes, and not only for NOA (available with Enchanced Autopilot or FSD). It will also improve safety for all Tesla's running the FSD computer hardware (Apr 2020+) or any Oct 2016+ Tesla that has received a computer upgrade.

SAFETY will not be optional on Tesla cars; It will be STANDARD. Only the convenience features will be extra cost. But if your standard autopilot Tesla thinks it's about to be involved, it will react the same way that an FSD-enabled car would for prevention and mitigation, because they're running the same software stack. :D

I have the option to ask for FSD beta (paid for back in 2019) but will hold off for a while longer.
Me too! (Winter is not coming, it's here in the Great White North). But I love this progress! Go Tesla! Go Autopilot Team!

Cheers!
 
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The Tesla connector is the best solution, with dual cable supporting CCS for as long as it is needed.

In Australia Chademo is also typically dual cable, with some non-Tesla chargers supporting Chademo and CCS.

Chademo is apparently big in Japan, hence it would take longer to phase out there.

Japan? If this chart is correct, Japan could still choose any standard they want without too much trouble! Keep in mind, the numbers include plug-in hybrids which can't use fast DC charging anyway!

1668311782782.png


Of course, their extensive domestic ICE manufacturing industry would not want to do anything that would speed adoption of EV's!
 
  • Funny
Reactions: ElectricIAC
Japan? If this chart is correct, Japan could still choose any standard they want without too much trouble! Keep in mind, the numbers include plug-in hybrids which can't use fast DC charging anyway!

View attachment 874052

Of course, their extensive domestic ICE manufacturing industry would not want to do anything that would speed adoption of EV's!
Afik they are working on a new standard chademo2 with the Chinese?
 
A month ago Elon said point blank to investors “We don't anticipate this [4680 ramp] being any limiting factor for the Cybertruck or anything else.” You are asserting that the opposite is true. Is that because you think Elon committed blatant fraud on the earnings call? Or is it because you think his estimate of 4680 constraints is incorrect and yours is more accurate? If so, how did you reach this conclusion?
While I agree with your post, if the 4680's are not the limiting factor then what is? Presumably when Tesla was designing the production lines for Cybertruck, while already knowing there are millions of pre-orders, they would have designed them to whatever part would not be available at sufficient scale. It's difficult to see another part that would cause an issue - possibly the lead times on new stamping machines or 9k presses might mean there will be step-change production levels over time and 4680 can keep ahead of this run rate.

Given the other components (ex cells, castings and 30X series stainless steel) of the cybertruck are fairly vanilla I doubt it's going to be a shortage of wheels or windows or windscreen wipers, etc.
 
While I agree with your post, if the 4680's are not the limiting factor then what is? Presumably when Tesla was designing the production lines for Cybertruck, while already knowing there are millions of pre-orders, they would have designed them to whatever part would not be available at sufficient scale. It's difficult to see another part that would cause an issue - possibly the lead times on new stamping machines or 9k presses might mean there will be step-change production levels over time and 4680 can keep ahead of this run rate.

Given the other components (ex cells, castings and 30X series stainless steel) of the cybertruck are fairly vanilla I doubt it's going to be a shortage of wheels or windows or windscreen wipers, etc.
The 9000 series casting machine for Cybertruck has not yet arrived on site, stamping isolation foundation for Cybertruck complete, machinery on site, yet to be installed. Status of stainless steel folding and cold rolling unknown.

I also think that the 4680 ramp might be partially dependent on the cathode plant which is still being constructed.
 

Edit/Corrected: FSD Beta v11 Release Notes​


Partial release notes have become available and are available below. More to come soon.

- Enabled FSD Beta on highway. This unifies the vision and planning stack on and off-highway and replaces the legacy highway stack, which is over four years old. The legacy highway stack still relies on several single-camera and single-frame networks, and was setup to handle simple lane-specific maneuvers. FSD Beta's multi-camera video networks and next-gen planner, that allows for more complex agent interactions with less reliance on lanes, make way for adding more intelligent behaviors, smoother control and better decision making.

Improved Occupancy Network's recall for close by obstacles and precision in severe weather conditions with 4x increase in transformer spatial resolution, 20% increase in image featurizer capacity, improved side camera calibration, and 260k more video training clips (real-world and simulation).

- Reduced the predicted velocity error of very close-by motorcycles, scooters, wheelchairs, and pedestrians by 63.6%. To do this, we introduced a new dataset of simulated adversarial high speed VRU interactions. This update improves autopilot control around fast-moving and cutting-in VRUs.

- Improved creeping profile with higher jerk when creeping starts and ends.

- Improved control for nearby obstacles by predicting continuous distance to static geometry with the general static obstacle network.

- Reduced vehicle "parked" attribute error rate by 17%, achieved by increasing the dataset size by 14%. Also improved brake light accuracy.

- Improved clear-to-go scenario velocity error by 5% and highway scenario velocity error by 10%, achieved by tuning loss function targeted at improving performance in difficult scenarios.

- Improved detection and control for open car doors.

- Improved smoothness through turns by using an optimization-based approach to decide which road lines are irrelevant for c[unreadable] given lateral and longitudinal acceleration and jerk limits as we[unreadable] vehicle kinematics.

- Improved stability of the FSD UI visualizations by optimizing ethernet data transfer pipeline by 15%.

- Improved recall for vehicles directly behind ego, and improv precision for vehicle detection network.

As @Mardack mentioned in the „FSD discussion“ thread, there was a mix-up between release notes for V11 and for V10.11.

Therefore until now we only know the first bullet points which were leaked on twitter

I imagine that the autopilot team faced deadline pressure to meet the date 11/11.. Obviously Tesla does not want to let leak the whole release notes yet. We will get them when the update is pushed to the OG/Youtube testers.

Like others, I think that wide release in US and Canada will be included in the holiday release and before that some polishing steps will be required. Soon later some functions will be pushed worldwide since Tesla got rid of the ultrasonic sensors for new cars. V11 marks a milestone as it will increase the miles driven through FSD beta by about an order of magnitude. Until know Tesla maintained the right balance between optimizing FSD beta and having a high safety level of FSD beta together with human supervision which is a significant achievement. A big thank you to all the beta testers for doing their imporant and not always easy part.

It seems plausible to me that wide release of FSDbeta V11 will finally increase the safety level of all Tesla cars with HW3. Even when FSDbeta is not active some functions will be running in the shadow. This would increase the value of new of used Tesla cars even more.

While we hoped for even faster progress, in my opinion we can be happy with what we get.