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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
With the massive drop in TSLA, I wanted to see if it's quantitatively undervalued compared to other high growth large caps in the US. I turned to a stock screener and narrowed the field to companies with > 25% EPS next year.
Among the 49 companies, TSLA is ranked top #19 for PE and #17 for forward PE. A higher PE means the stock is more expensive, so I looked at valuation metrics to see whether TSLA could quantitatively justify being among the top 17 of the 49 high growth stocks.
#3 in sales growth over the last 5 years. Great, but this is a lagging indicator.
#5 in EPS growth over the next 5 years, Great.
#1 in EPS growth this year. Great.
#25 in EPS growth next year. Not great?
- Where do screeners get their future estimates from - analyst consensus?
- What are better ways to quantitatively compare attractiveness of TSLA SP to other companies?
Here's the screener and criteria in case anyone wants to play with it.
Among the 49 companies, TSLA is ranked top #19 for PE and #17 for forward PE. A higher PE means the stock is more expensive, so I looked at valuation metrics to see whether TSLA could quantitatively justify being among the top 17 of the 49 high growth stocks.
#3 in sales growth over the last 5 years. Great, but this is a lagging indicator.
#5 in EPS growth over the next 5 years, Great.
#1 in EPS growth this year. Great.
#25 in EPS growth next year. Not great?
- Where do screeners get their future estimates from - analyst consensus?
- What are better ways to quantitatively compare attractiveness of TSLA SP to other companies?
Here's the screener and criteria in case anyone wants to play with it.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Dave Chappelle: "If you could cast a dinner party, who would you invite?" Joe Rogan: "Definately Elon. He's a sweet dude" | JRE Clips (Oct 24, 2022) - ext'd conversation about Elon's personal likability:
Cheers!
Cheers!
thesmokingman
Active Member
Ah CNBC, keep being classy CNBC.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I don't know how these CNBC talking heads say what they say with a straight face. If we had listened to Tim Seymour when he was shorting TSLA, we would have lost our shirts when TSLA was finally being recognized as an automotive leader. Instead, we ignored him, held our TSLA shares, and have multiplied our capital more than 10X from when he thought it was a good idea to short a company executing in a superior manner.
Why would anyone with half a brain listen to him now?
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
I have no idea where, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say 37% EPS growth in 2023 over 2022 is majorly underestimating what’s really going to happen.
Tesla vs. Top Megacaps: Hardcore Smackdown
One of these things is not like the others...
globaloptimization.substack.com
Tesla vs. Top Megacaps: Smackdown Round 2
Head-to-Head Trend Chart Face-off and Market Cap Implications
globaloptimization.substack.com
Extraordinary Exponential Explosion
Logarithmic charts reveal Tesla's extreme growth compared to other top companies
globaloptimization.substack.com
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
... and by turns, disingenuous:
Slamming on the brakes: Ford cuts production amid chip shortage | published by CNBC at 10 PM on a Friday nite
Chip shortage... chips... right...
/s
thesmokingman
Active Member
It may have been published this Friday but the video itself is from September! Typical CNBS.... and by turns, disingenuous:
Slamming on the brakes: Ford cuts production amid chip shortage | published by CNBC at 10 PM on a Friday nite
Chip shortage... chips... right...
/s
We hit a new 52 week low at $176.55 in Friday's trade (previous low was $177.12 on 9th Nov) at around 11am. We recovered off that low and the stock was doing better until macros and the NASDAQ took a dive just after midday. There was a 10 minute period from around 12.15 to 12.25pm where the NASDAQ continued to drop very sharply but TSLA bottomed out at $177 and refused to go any lower. It would appear there were a lot of buy orders sitting at $177 that were able to soak up the shorting/selling pressure until macros recovered and we could trade higher. I don't have level 2 access but it would be interesting to know how deep this stack of orders was and if this could contunue to set a floor for the stock.
I was expecting a bounce later in the day to get us above $180 for the close (I suggested this before 1pm in the 'other' thread). While max pain was $195 this was irrelevant as it's a lagging data point and the options open interest suggested a close above $180 due to the 30,000 high Put wall at $180. I suspect the very strong rise we saw after 3pm to get above $180 was partly fuelled by MM/option sellers to get above the Put wall.
Next week is hard to predict at this stage. Being a day of monthly options expiry the support we saw at $177 and up to $180 may not materialise again next week. With a Thursday close for Thanksgiving and an early close on Friday there will be plenty of opportunities for the manipulators to go hard as often happens in shortened weeks. Any decent recovery will depend on macros as there are few immediate catalysts, obvious ongoing distractions and ample FUD to overcome. It'll be interesting, so buckle up.
Optimeer
Member
Update on (limited) roll out of two new FSD Beta releases:
FSD Beta 10.69.3.1
Is currently pushed to the OG/Youtube Beta testers. The release notes are the same like for FSD Beta 10.69.3.
FSD Beta 11
Is now tested by additional Tesla-employees and one of them leaked the release notes to Omar (@WholeMarsBlog on Twitter). Below the release notes which I copied from the Teslarati website.
-Enabled FSD Beta on highway. This unifies the vision and planning stack on and off-highway and replaces the legacy highway stack, which is over four years old. The legacy highway stack still relies on several single-camera and single-frame networks, and was setup to handle simple lane-specific maneuvers. FSD Beta’s multi-camera video networks and next-gen planner, that allows for more complex agent interactions with less reliance on lanes, make way for adding more intelligent behaviors, smoother control and better decision making.
– Improved Occupancy Network’s recall for close by obstacles and precision in severe weather conditions with 4x increase in transformer spatial resolution, 20% increase in image featurizer capacity, improved side camera calibration, and 260k more video training clips (real-world and simulation).
– Improved merging behavior by leveraging lane geometry and lane bounds, association with coarse map information and better gap selection algorithms, allowing for a smoother and safer experience.
– Added highway behavior to offset away from blocked lanes and generic obstacles like road debris while also adding a smooth hand- off between in-lane offsetting and lane changing.
– Improved speed-based lane change decisions to better avoid slowing down traffic in fast lanes, and interfere less with navigation.
– Reduced sensitivity for speed-based lane changes in CHILL mode.
– Improved lane changes to allow higher jerk maneuvers if required to stay on-route or to move away from lane blockages.
– Improved smoothness at highway lane splits by being less strict about centering between lane lines and allowing lower jerk maneuvers, where safe to do so.
– Reduced latency of trajectory optimization by 20% on average, without sacrificing behavior, by leveraging numerical tricks for more efficient computations.
FSD Beta 10.69.3.1
Is currently pushed to the OG/Youtube Beta testers. The release notes are the same like for FSD Beta 10.69.3.
FSD Beta 11
Is now tested by additional Tesla-employees and one of them leaked the release notes to Omar (@WholeMarsBlog on Twitter). Below the release notes which I copied from the Teslarati website.
-Enabled FSD Beta on highway. This unifies the vision and planning stack on and off-highway and replaces the legacy highway stack, which is over four years old. The legacy highway stack still relies on several single-camera and single-frame networks, and was setup to handle simple lane-specific maneuvers. FSD Beta’s multi-camera video networks and next-gen planner, that allows for more complex agent interactions with less reliance on lanes, make way for adding more intelligent behaviors, smoother control and better decision making.
– Improved Occupancy Network’s recall for close by obstacles and precision in severe weather conditions with 4x increase in transformer spatial resolution, 20% increase in image featurizer capacity, improved side camera calibration, and 260k more video training clips (real-world and simulation).
– Improved merging behavior by leveraging lane geometry and lane bounds, association with coarse map information and better gap selection algorithms, allowing for a smoother and safer experience.
– Added highway behavior to offset away from blocked lanes and generic obstacles like road debris while also adding a smooth hand- off between in-lane offsetting and lane changing.
– Improved speed-based lane change decisions to better avoid slowing down traffic in fast lanes, and interfere less with navigation.
– Reduced sensitivity for speed-based lane changes in CHILL mode.
– Improved lane changes to allow higher jerk maneuvers if required to stay on-route or to move away from lane blockages.
– Improved smoothness at highway lane splits by being less strict about centering between lane lines and allowing lower jerk maneuvers, where safe to do so.
– Reduced latency of trajectory optimization by 20% on average, without sacrificing behavior, by leveraging numerical tricks for more efficient computations.
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Paracelsus
Active Member
Speaking of Tesla Energy opportunities - TMC members are one of the very few groups that will immediately recognize the connection between Michael Cannon-Brookes and Elon, and Hornsdale’s epic battery plant that proved to the world what was possible. Now imagine what they could accomplish if they had access to AGL Energy - Australia’s largest CO2 emitter. Well look what just happened……….. exactly that. This is massive news IMO, and it’s only a very small leap to envision those two implementing the ‘Hornsdale on Steroids’ project in the near future. The status quo has just changed:
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Not sure about US, but for Europe is a nice car. Not the best one in terms of efficiency, but a nice urban car. They are selling well in Italy, of course, and it can be used for short trips in the highway too.
Musk says wide release of 10.69.3.1 now
V11 this week ??
V11 this week ??
The thing my broker doesn’t know if how much money I have in my secret account. Only my wife knows, because she it trying to spend it all on a new whole house renovation!
OT
Yes, often these cars are advertised as “a fun little car” but the safety record is not great. People should pay close attention to NCAP Official FIAT 500 2021 safety rating but this car is nowhere near as bad as the safety record on the Renault Zoe.
Official Renault ZOE 2021 safety rating
Electric Vehicles | Euro NCAP
Find the safety ratings of full-electric cars tested by Euro NCAP. These results are arranged by the year of test and by star rating.
www.euroncap.com
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petit_bateau
Active Member
Meanwhile out in the world beyond the USA, the Fiat 500 is viewed as a fantastic little car. Not necessarily highly profitable, but that's a different matter. The USA has a seriously skewed view on this sort of thing.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Now that there is a baseline for B,A, and S+, we need to see whst happens to GM as they ramp.
Zach said on the Q3 call:
"Operating margin is one of our best yet, with improvements in operating leverage. However, Austin and Berlin ramp costs weighed on our margins, particularly if you compare it to Q1. Removing regulatory credits and Austin and Berlin, our operating margins would have been our strongest yet and auto gross margin would have been nearly 30%. Note that while small and growing, each car we build in Austin and Berlin is contributing positively to profitability."
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