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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Morning After Thoughts -

1. I am going to pass over any discussion of batteries and pack size, charging and cables, production and pricing, as I think we have a good understanding of both what we do and do not know, and need await further revelations.

2. The demonstration and verification of the fully-loaded 500-mile trip matched my and I believe our collective very high expectations. There remains some clarification needed in the distribution of rig versus payload weights but we have enough ancillary information, like the Jersey barrier hauling, to demonstrate payload is similar enough to that of a traditional semi so as to make any such difference pale to insignificance when compared to cost of operation.

3. As preliminary to #4, below, here are some data. The most common heavy-hauling engine in the NoAm market is the ISX15 from Cummins, providing up to 600HP and 2,050 ft-lbs of torque. Its "total package", which includes filters, belts, alternators, radiators....but NOT liquids (coolant, engine oil) weighs, per Cummins, 3,200 pounds...and they also exclude another 240 lbs. for the aftertreatment system - the mandatory pollution control systems (also dry; I've no knowledge amount how much DEF is required). The most common automatic transmission for a Class 8 is Eaton's; their 10-, 15- and 18-speed versions weigh between 716 and 770 pounds, plus tranny fluid. For now, I'm going to add a conservative 100 lbs of fluids, and that gets us to 4,200 pounds. Add bell housing, drive shafts and transaxles. Oops - no can do; it will take too much time...but those puppies are heavy. Eight hundred pounds won't cover it, but I'll use that number just to get us to a round 5,000 pounds. ===>2.5 tons<===.

4. This brings me to the revelation that was for me the single most impressive point of the demonstration. That Tesla is using three almost* off-the-shelf Model S/X plaid motors, each weighing a mere 100 pounds**....and only one of them as the "highway drive unit"...to haul 82,000 pounds at highway speeds is a staggering display of the virtues of Tesla's approach. Tweaking slightly what @unk45 wrote earlier today, that Tesla can iterate development and production that much more quickly and efficiently and cheaply across a 12-decade old industry's spectrum of transportation by using pre-existing parts is, for me, the star of last night's show.

*Explicit wording of the demonstration: "Essentially we're using the Plaid Model S / Model X power train". Italics are mine.

** Ingineerix's teardown gave a 99-lb weight to the motor, and 110 pounds to the single-speed transmission and inverter. The semi's transmission, and especially those of the two acceleration "100% delinkable" drive units as shown last night, will differ slightly from those of the Models S & X - viz Watch Dissection Of Tesla Model S Plaid Front Drive Unit
 
Has to be somewhat of a dip to require a price incentive no? Or at least they just need to goose buyers slightly to make them move. My money is on tax credit confusion.

It seems like a perfect opportunity to test the market pricing and demand lever (potentially for other countries that don't have a tax credit currently, but might add one in the future) before the tax credit here in the US is applied.
 
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So, the question arises to the people here, why is Tesla decreasing prices of their vehicles?
Didn't Elon mention a couple months ago that they are finally seeing a drop in some of the commodity prices, so there may be price reductions coming in the future? Also, if that is true, they can certainly afford the $3750 discount so as to discourage people from pushing off their delivery until 2023.
 
2. The demonstration and verification of the fully-loaded 500-mile trip matched my and I believe our collective very high expectations. There remains some clarification needed in the distribution of rig versus payload weights but we have enough ancillary information, like the Jersey barrier hauling, to demonstrate payload is similar enough to that of a traditional semi so as to make any such difference pale to insignificance when compared to cost of operation.
Hold your horses, mister... "fully-loaded"? What does that mean? Fully-loaded with feathers or fully-loaded with gold ingots? What about neutron stars?

Asking for a friend (called Tony)
 
Hold your horses, mister... "fully-loaded"? What does that mean? Fully-loaded with feathers or fully-loaded with gold ingots? What about neutron stars?

Asking for a friend (called Tony)


For the record, I think the semi will have the same payload as a diesel semi or at most a couple thousand pounds penalty.
I however disagree with the notion that Tesla has shown that as fact or that we know it as a fact.
 
The semi's transmission, and especially those of the two acceleration "100% delinkable" drive units as shown last night, will differ slightly from those of the Models S & X - viz Watch Dissection Of Tesla Model S Plaid Front Drive Unit

I imagine the Semi transaxle will differ quite substantially from the S&X. It will have to be much, much beefier/heavier. Even so, I don't expect that the Semi will tip the scales at much more than a comparable diesel semi tractor.
 
1. If the semi is using 2170 cells at this time, and we use old data (Tesla is likely more efficient now): The model Y long range uses 4416 cells to create a 75kWh pack. If the semi has a 1MWh pack, that's about 13 and 1/3 Model Y long range packs. So about 58,880 cells. Each cell weighs 68 grams. Total battery cells weight in this example is just over 4 million grams or about 8,827 pounds of battery cells. The Model Y long range motor weighs about 99 pounds. I couldn't find a weight for the carbon-wrapped motors, but assume it's slightly heavier so I'll estimate 100 pounds each. That bring the weight to 9,127 pounds for battery cells and motors. Add a few hundred pounds for housing / drive train components, but the question is where to draw the line to compare to removing the diesel engine and transmission. Some drive components may be similar / required in both. For this example, I'll round up to 10,000 pounds for the electric drive train. Perhaps that is low.

The average weight I found on Google for a class 8 truck diesel engine is 2,880 pounds. The figure I found for transmission weight is about 800 pounds. The fuel tanks typically have a capacity between 120 and 160 gallons. Some trucks have two tanks, so starting fuel could range from 120 gallons to 320 gallons. Fuel is consumed so weight changes during the trip. I'll target a value of 100 gallons of fuel to be conservative. Diesel weighs about 7 pounds per gallon, so another 700 pounds of weight for average fuel. That brings me 4,380 pounds for diesel drive train. I don't have a good idea of other components to factor in.

From that example, the EV semi would weigh about 5,600 pounds more than the diesel semi. I have no doubt Tesla did some optimizing on weight of the cab creature comforts and frame. The law allows EV semis to be 2,000 pounds heavier than a diesel semi. In a max weight scenario, and if my figures are close, then the diesel could haul about 3,000 more pounds of cargo than the EV semi. When fuel and maintenance costs are factored in, I suspect the EV semi becomes the obvious cost effective choice, even with a smaller cargo capacity, by weight.

I'm open to corrections for my estimates.


4. Elon previously stated they would have a 1,000,000 mile warranty (if I recall from the video years ago). It also has stronger windshield glass that is more resistant to breaking, less maintenance requirements, and will include Tesla's software safety features, which can help reduce liability / insurance costs.
Excellent argument. Only observation I would make is the assumption of the 3000 pound cargo advantage for the diesel drivetrain; this is based on your 100 gallon fuel tank level assumption. You should actually use the all up “wet” weight because that is what will be the starting point, therefore limiting factor IMO.
 
For the record, I think the semi will have the same payload as a diesel semi or at most a couple thousand pounds penalty.
I however disagree with the notion that Tesla has shown that as fact or that we know it as a fact.
Repeated instransigence, most irritatingly in the face of multiple times-repeated answers, now is a bannable offense. Unless you have good reason to believe and can demonstrate that, à la Nikola, Tesla is outright lying in its current and previous revelations, then this Mod note puts you on a last-chance Warning.
 
So, the question arises to the people here, why is Tesla decreasing prices of their vehicles?

They haven't decreased the price of the Model 3 or Model Y in the last 2 years (at least not in the US) or I would have bought one recently.

What they have done is increase the amount of Model Ys they are making which are cheaper than Model S and Model X so that brings the average price down.

There may also be some currency exchange effects. Much of the increase in production was in China and is being sold in multiple countries/currencies.
 
I imagine the Semi transaxle will differ quite substantially from the S&X. It will have to be much, much beefier/heavier. Even so, I don't expect that the Semi will tip the scales at much more than a comparable diesel semi tractor.
Other that the axle disconnects and motor position, it's basically an upsized Plaid.
SmartSelect_20221202_153350_Firefox.jpg
 
I imagine the Semi transaxle will differ quite substantially from the S&X. It will have to be much, much beefier/heavier. Even so, I don't expect that the Semi will tip the scales at much more than a comparable diesel semi tractor.
Unless this depiction truly is a conceptual cartoon of the system, then I submit your imagination is incorrect. Take especial note of the first word in the prior sentence, however.
Screen Shot 2022-12-02 at 12.34.14 PM.png

On edit: I need to put @mongo on Warning, so that I can hit the "Post" button before I approve his posts.... ;)