Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

Haha good point. I'm rooting for 194.70 just to see it happen. Cause ya know.....that's definitely natural trading

Lmao, with the meager upward trend we actually could settle on that number for a close. And yea, totally normal. MM is probably reading this thread, and loling, oh yea you want that for a close?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I will go with 194.71 just because

View attachment 880707

194.71 or 194.69 is ok.......but 194.70 is definitely where I call shenanigans

 

[Captkerosene]

I think it is a soft launch. The most impactful products through history almost all had a soft launch, including the handmade Model T. It's like Elon said last night, they will continue to iterate, develop and improve it. But it's currently ready to deploy on regular routes as the charging network builds out. A hard launch would have required fully built-out charging infrastucture. This could be likened to something in-between the original Roadster and the Model S, before there was a fast-charging network of any note.

This is how large unstoppable businesses are built. I don't understand your concern.

This is how large unstoppable businesses are built. I don't understand your concern.

My concern is that Tesla built a "compliance truck" without actually planning on building them at scale in the near term. My expectation before last night was 50K produced in 2024. My current expectation is 500 produced in 2024. I'm sure others will counter that Elon didn't say the 50K number wasn't gonna happen ... and they are correct. I try and look past what is said to understand what is really happening and am often wrong.

I was very impressed with the other presenter; smart, articulate ... kind of person that commands respect. If he's a great engineer then he's perfect to head up the truck business. Could be the guy Elon identified as a potential new CEO.

 

[thesmokingman]

There we go and 5 minutes to close and over .70 already. So predictable...

 

[Discoducky]

I don't understand your concern.

There is no spoon

 

[Krugerrand]

His sticking point is the "at scale" portion. What is "at scale"? We know the plan is for ~50k in 2024.

How many can they make per week on the Sparks production line? (We might find out during the Q4 conference call.)

We just have to wait for an attendee to tweet what they saw/asked about/were told at the event. It’s not possible that everyone there can keep their mouths shut longer than a day or two. It’s actually interesting that no one has said anything yet.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Unless this depiction truly is a conceptual cartoon of the system, then I submit your imagination is incorrect. Take especial use of the first word in the prior sentence, however.
View attachment 880706
On edit: I need to put @mongo on Warning, so that I can hit the "Post" button before I approve his posts....

Show me which parts interchange with the S&X besides the drive units. The general layout is very similar, but the difference in weight is huge. And since you were addressing component weights..., I'd call it a significant difference.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Agreed. Max Pain is based on yesterday's closing options open interest, and none of today's trading. Today's trading volume does suggest option writers' avoidance of $195 share price or above at the closing to shut out those call buyers. Perhaps more importantly, they may want to get TSLA to close at or above $192.5 to shut out put buyers at that price.

Once again... you nailed it...

At 1:50 pm mind you...

 

[Krugerrand]

I was talking to my dad, who's a retired manufacturing plant controller, about Tesla today (as with most days over the past few years...). He was really worried about the drop down in the price of the cars this quarter. He mentioned the simplest answer in manufacturing being that Tesla is increasing demand for their vehicles by lowering the prices.

My reply was the Tesla can't be demand constrained at this stage due to the tremendous amount of growth in production across current factories and proposed new factories yet to be determined. Though, it raised a red flag in confirmation bias on my side. After looking back on the past few quarters of ASP...its been decreasing due to the relative ramp up of the Model 3 / Y lines. There's no doubt things are great and they're generating just a massive amount of top-line automotive revenue with significant profit margins.

So, the question arises to the people here, why is Tesla decreasing prices of their vehicles?

This close

 

[unk45]

I may be misunderstanding you, but those are definitely software controlled mechanical disconnects on the drive axles.
View attachment 880587View attachment 880588

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598489087752933377

Yes, I should have been clearer, it is embarrassing that my wording did not represent my thoughts. From their statements I thing that the normal clutching processes that are so destructive, probably are not, because the motor speed is synchronized before engagement. Were that not happening it would not be imperceptible to the driver.
Is there another way?
I cannot think of a way unless the motors are freewheeling, which sounds inefficient.

 

[Krugerrand]

Demand Problem /s

I don’t care that you put a /s. If you need to use a /s then you suck at /s and therefore I can ignore it entirely.

 

[thesmokingman]

I love the Professor on CNBC atm. He's just going off, eviscerating the FED for their idiocy. Classic Professor...

 

[StealthP3D]

So much for an epic battle for 200 lol. More like the battle for 190. MM's easily gonna walk this thing down to 189.99

Another day, another wrong prediction - you're on a roll.

Now I'm getting suspicious that you really are that rare person who actually knows what's going to happen in advance and you're just trying to stick it to us!

 

[wipster]

We just have to wait for an attendee to tweet what they saw/asked about/were told a peot the event. It’s not possible that everyone there can keep their mouths shout longer than a day or two. It’s actually interesting that no one has said anything yet.

Yeah, two people I expected to hear from... must be one hell of a hangover.

Unless they forced the attendees to all sign NDA's that is...

 

[ZeApelido]

@StarFoxisDown! better sit down for this:

TSLA outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index (and 2x leverage funds) by on average about 4% for the week.

This may be the first time there was a week of outperformance by TSLA since October just before the Twitter purchase, and before that August / September.

 

[insaneoctane]

Observation based only on the goat-f*** that could happen if the coolant is like the blue non-conductive coolant used in the Hyundai Kona EV (and all other Hyundai EV products): based on chatter on the Hyundai forums, whenever the blue non-conductive coolant is serviced for any reason, a certain percentage of vehicle owners run into an issue where the coolant crystallizes a few months afterwards. YMMV.

I believe v3 is already liquid cooled. Oh, and so are all batteries on every Tesla produced....

 

[jerry33]

What's the hard data on % of semi loads that use the max legal limit? It's only like 10% right?

It's not that simple. You also have to divide them into categories such as whether they are short haul or long haul, what type of goods they are hauling, etc. For example furniture vans max out in volume rather than in weight.

 

[Krugerrand]

My concern is that Tesla built a "compliance truck" without actually planning on building them at scale in the near term.

Tony’s cousin?

That’s your *concern*? A compliance vehicle from Tesla?

I was very impressed with the other presenter; smart, articulate ... kind of person that commands respect. If he's a great engineer then he's perfect to head up the truck business. Could be the guy Elon identified as a potential new CEO.

 

[mongo]

Show me which parts interchange with the S&X besides the drive units. The general layout is very similar, but the difference in weight is huge. And since you were addressing component weights..., I'd call it a significant difference.

Only final axle assembly need to change (versus an S/X ) and, of course, the housing. Inverter, rotor, stator, mid reduction gear (maybe custom tooth count) stay. Beefed up differential on one axle.

Compare to existing: tractor axle and hub is sameish. Removal of 2x{standard pinion, ring gear, spider gears, carrier}, power splitter, drive shaft, and intermediate shaft.

As a bonus, drop all the anti-torsion frame weight.

 

[hobbes]

Good to see JB was at the delivery event!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598496033113223168