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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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CNBC - this mornng:

@AudubonB says he wants a reply when I downvote.


At the same time, if you disagree with another, have the courtesy both to that poster AS WELL AS the rest of this community to present why you think otherwise.

Perhaps, although I am not holding my breath, this platform’s “thumb down” policy will change. As I have written before, I disdain its use, period, and those of you who make use of it more than sparingly are highly correlated with those whose opinions I value least.

Simple as this. If you post a video from any source and don't say why I should watch it, how it's relevant to TSLA, some sort of summation, I'm going to down vote that post.

I'm not watching random videos just to see why I should watch them.

If you think it's noteworthy please spend a few seconds telling us why, otherwise be prepared for the rest of us to mark it as a post of low effort.

And no, I don't think you telling me when the video was posted is useful most of the time, every post has a timestamp, you saying it was posted recently is redundant. You only need to tell us it's post time/date if it's old.

Mod note: there is a RULE of this thread never to link anything - video or otherwise - without comment. A rule sadly trodden upon; I cannot discipline every single violation. Were I able to be more diligent, there would be no post for you to black-thumb. Maybe in the next universe.
 
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If you get something wrong do you not want to be corrected?
And one of the main reasons why I believe this whole mockingbird (birdie) saga started is likely due to Elon’s T feed being populated with sycophants, specially the ones he follows and replies back to. Like, pathole. They had a share in egging him onto this route and him likely Not getting to hear any criticism of such a move .
Well, it’s all past now and no point in rehashing .
 
Right … other CEOs aren‘t CEO of three major companies simultaneously, haven’t started a major AI non profit (OpenAI), haven’t launched two other long term possibly revolutionary companies (Boring and Neuralink), and aren’t serial entrepreneurs (Zip 2 and PayPal). Other CEOs also aren’t the richest person on the earth.

Elon is very, very unique. Whats the point of criticizing him?

Dr Jeckyll did all those wonderful things. But we are just witnessing Mr Hyde now. We are trying to figure out how to bring back Dr Jeckyll.
 
I've gone on record as saying I don't think Tesla is buying back TSLA this quarter. Even with the stock price where it is, and the additional 1% tax that could be saved by buying back in 2022 versus 2023, I think it was going to be too tight to start a buyback until 2023.

But just like price action and volume the last three days were indications of Elon possibly selling, today's price action and especially volume are to me indications that MAYBE the buyback has started.

Whereas before, I would put the odds of a buyback in 2022 at less than 5%, I am now thinking more like a 20% probability.
 
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I'm right and you are wrong . . . no you are right and I'm wrong . . . no I am wrong and you are wrong . . . nope I am right and you are right . . . prove it . . . no disprove it . . . no I can prove it . . . no you can't prove it . . . no I can't prove it . . . your data is wrong . . . no YOUR data is wrong . . . no my data is wrong . . . no my data is right . . . no your data is right . . . you said he said that she said he said it is not true . . . it's true . . .
🤷‍♂️🤷‍♀️ --> E=MC^2 . . . {it's all relative(s)} 🤷‍♀️ 🤷‍♂️
 
If I were Elon, given the commentary here and elsewhere over the last weeks and months from folks of whom I would have expected better, I would just say "Bite me humans" and head back to my home planet.

Seriously, look at all that Elon has done across decades to create actual products that help solve dire problems. And folks whine and complain with scarce a scrap of perspective much less—dare I say?—gratitude.

Worse some of you lionize folks like “Uncle Leo" and other speculators (yes, I include you options traders) who somehow equate speculation as being supportive like shareholding when the opposite is true, who bawl for a buyout to bail them out of their bad trades, and, worse, who think buying shares is giving money to Elon—when in fact it is Elon, Tesla employees, and their customers who have created that wealth in building a great company.

I, for one, thank Elon and all the employees and customers of all his companies, even the recently acquired one. Please keep up the good work.

I wish all here Happy Holidays. I also encourage some of you here take good look at some of your recent posts as well as a hard look in the mirror and consider whether you might learn something from the spirit of the season.
 
Whatever happened to Tesla ending such waves? IIRC several well known predictors of P&D based their #s on such wave endings that this info from China suggest are not actually ending?
Yesterday Rob touched a little on this.

It seems people kind of expect China to renew the subsidies. The expiring subsidies are almost an "incentive" to push sales at the end of the year.

In anycase, it would make a lot of sense for Tesla China to produce and sell as many cars this year as possible, in case the subsidies don't get renewed.

ps : The price cuts inspite of expiring subsidies is what makes people think the demand is softening in China.
 
Here many regular ol employees had options that could be exercised somewhat faster, these sorts of employees used this as part of compensation and nearly always sold as soon as possible to finance life, housing, etc. They were not likely to hold the shares.

Common sense tells us the typical non-production line TSLA employee probably doesn't cash out all (or even most of) their options-based compensation as soon as they can do so. I think if we exclude production line employees, the effect of a two-year drop in share price is a net positive to employee's net worth for the same reasons it's a net positive to an investor who is accumulating shares over time as they can afford to do so.

There does exist a probable consequence or after-effect of this drop in price that could negatively impact these employees' long term financial position in life. And that is a human tendency to become financially "shell-shocked". It's unavoidable that many employees who saw the worth of their options go to zero will come out of it with a distorted view of the long-term value of their options. Emotional pain has a way of making people wary. It's natural they will think they should sell them off before the same thing happens again. But this will probably result in leaving millions on the table.

Investors need to caution themselves from falling into the same trap. As we climb out the other side, there will be a tendency for investors who have been financially "shell-shocked" to get out at a small profit, maybe only 1.2X of their cost basis, which will provide some relief to what they are feeling but that is likely leave the bulk of their potential future gains on the table. The hunger to take profits on a portion of their shares will be overpowering for many after such a prolonged period of what they experienced emotionally as "financial pain". Many will sell with relief, even though they don't need the money or have any plan on spending it.

I have not felt much emotional or financial pain through this, so I'm not worried about myself, but I see the pain so many here are experiencing, and they will be at the greatest risk of making the most harmful financial decision of their lives. The way they will rationalize these sales will make perfect sense to them at the time, even though it will make no rational sense at all. And, as it becomes apparent that they have left huge sums on the table as Tesla continues to rise, they will feel more pain of a different sort. But they will rationalize that away as well. This rationalizing of financial mistakes has the unfortunate effect of "hardening" people to the world. They will get by, as all of us will, but it will be far from optimum and leads to a reduced sense of worth that manifests itself in other ways that are not flattering.

The way to avoid investing pitfalls that are so common because we are human is to be conscious of how emotions affect investing and guard against it. The best way is to learn how not to be emotional about things that are financial in nature in the first place. Although that is in your best interest, it's not always possible. The next best thing is an awareness and acceptance of the fact that you have been financially "shell-shocked" because that can help prevent premature selling simply by understanding the risk, how it's caused by the human brains tendency to find relief from emotionally traumatic events. Be aware that the effect is so strong that simple awareness of it may not be able to prevent you from doing it. A concerted effort to not let your guard down at any time will likely be required, a determination to succeed and not fall into known traps.

To be perfectly clear, I'm not saying people should never sell, I'm saying they shouldn't sell for emotional reasons, while justifying it with other "sensible" reasons that may only sound sensible to them at the time. Because this is how the human mind works, it can make almost anything sound sensible if it wants to. It's necessary to understand these self-protective mechanisms, to be aware of them, in order to have a fighting chance of avoiding their pitfalls.
 
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