Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

All this hand wringing over the intent vs reality of the IRA...wow.
My take is, ANYONE who does ANY due diligence about which BEV to buy goes with the Tesla period.

Tesla can't make them fast enough as is.

Yes, I believe the folks who wrote and will implement this act are partisan and perhaps tried to "hurt" Tesla...but it won't matter!

As someone up thread stated.... Tesla can pivot faster than they can fiddle around with "interpretation"

Yes some PEV's will be helped...yes that is stupid...but Tesla will still sell all they can make.

And then there is stationary battery storage....mmmm

 

[elasalle]

IRA WTF(What The Fuss)

For customer what is the difference b/w the 5 seat and 7 seat config:
seems 7 seater costs extra 3K, and 5 seater has a bit more cargo space.
Main concern here for customer is whether the 2 row comfort, leg-room is compromised in any way when 3rd row is added. Does not seem to be the case.
see tesla specs and videos like

What is percentage of 5row vs 7 row sales? Guesstimate, but I think like 70-80% for 5 row.
Why? Just like most people chose the free color option, most will not want to pay the extra 3K. Don't think it has anything to do with extra cargo space in the 5 row config.
Only people who have special need for 7 seat like kids will go for the 7 seater.

stat guesstimates(plug in your own numbers if you will )
purchase vs lease: 80% purchase
5 seater vs 7 seater: 80% 5 seater
US production - US vs ROW (canada, taiwan): 96% US
Qualify for IRA vs not qualified: 80% qualified for Model 3/X
% buying 5 seater, who will NOT switch to 7 seater if same cost: 30%. (if price is same, i think most people will value 3rd row seat over extra cargo space. 3rd row seat can be folded at all times.

% of US 5 row config buyers : 80*(80/100)*(96/100)*(80/100)*(30/100) = around 15% of customers (for US produced Y) will want to buy 5 seat config regardless.

Once offices open tomorrow, i am sure Tesla reps will try to clarify rules with govt entities. But this can take time & time is of essence ...
So best thing for Tesla is to provide it's own guidance within next 10 days, so there is no hesitation on customer in buying.
Tesla should immediately increase price of 5 seat config by 3K, so that there is no price difference b/w 5 row and 7 row configs. With this is place, for the ~ 15% of customers that still require 5 seat, Tesla can then offer 3K discount, . So in essence the 5 seat config will cost 4.5K more than the 7K config - consider this the adamant customer/cargo space premium ...
Tesla can/should add explain why the 5 and 7 seat configs are of same price and if rules change down the road, they can revert back to 5 seat config being 3K cheaper again ...

simple thoughts .. hope I didn't miss anything ...

cheers!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Be careful with definitive statements like this.. @Artful Dodger may swoop in with a spreadsheet of discounts and pricing fluctuations since the dawn of Tesla!

Haha, no, but I do think that Rob Maurer of the Tesla Daily Podcast may be maintaining a list of those prices.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Range unlock trim coming? LEMYR?

Model S/X was available as a software-locked 60D back in 2017 (Tesla needed to fill a market niche). Originally, the price to unlock the 75 version was $10K (still less than the current diff. between the Model Y LR and the IRA limit for the 5-seater).

Turns out though that the "75D" only had a 70KWh battery, and the upgrade price was lowered to $6,500 and finally to about $3K before the end of one quarter. Tesla still has to pay upfront for battery cells in a software locked version. IMO that's a non-starter, as well as bad PR long-term.

Tesla has said on numerous occasions that Model Y is cheaper to build than Model 3, but sells for $5K more. I think quite soon we'll see the demise of the 5-seater LR, and the return of the Model Y SR+ priced somewhere below the IRA cap. The 7-seater Model Y should be priced to encourage upgrades.

Cheers!

 

[ThisStockGood]

TL0 in Frankfurt is up over 6 % rn... mainly driven by very low gas prices in Europe these days I believe

 

[Max Plaid]

Google Ayn Rand, the Russian born author who popularized ‘objectivism’ which acts as philosophical justification for libertarians. John Galt was the hero of ‘Atlas Shrugged

Atlas Shrugged - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This is fundamental to understanding current political views of many TMC members.

Erm, was a joke, as everyone in the book keeps asking "Why is John Galt?"

But boy, it's one long and heavy-going read...

 

[unk45]

Erm, was a joke, as everyone in the book keeps asking "Why is John Galt?"

But boy, it's one long and heavy-going read...

I thought that, but figured sane people might not know. When I first read it as an utterly naive college freshman I was bewitched. I soon grew out of that.

 

[JRP3]

This misses the point. While it's true that the Treasury Dept. did select a pre-existing vehicle classification system to apply their price cut-offs to, it was not the only vehicle classification available, and they were not prohibited from adjusting them to suit the intent of the Act, that does not mitigate the fact that they chose the ones they did and chose to not adjust them in any manner. Their options under the Act were literally endless.

Given those facts, the fact that they picked an existing classification system to apply their price cutoffs to, is not persuasive in terms of convincing anyone the rules were not gerrymandered in a highly biased manner. Anyone claiming that this disproves "conspiracy theories" just reflects poorly on their intellectual honesty or their ability to make valid deductions.

Incompetence and laziness are usually enough to describe government action but I realize it's not as much fun as conspiracy theories which seem attractive to some.

 

[Max Plaid]

Here is TSLA doing its thing in Europe on a day when the US markets are closed.

View attachment 891337

Just be aware that Frankfurt closed early last Friday while TSLA was being beaten-up in pre-market, -1.5%, so this is approximately 3.5% up from the US close -> $127

 

[Prunesquallor]

Erm, was a joke, as everyone in the book keeps asking "Why is John Galt?"

But boy, it's one long and heavy-going read...

The movies are great, though!

/s

 

[brantse]

My hope is that the P&D also starts including numbers for Megapacks. As energy begins to scale and becomes a larger percentage of revenue, Tesla needs to point out this potential to the market.

 

[Brn2Run]

Prediction: tesla beats production and delivery numbers by a healthy amount, but mainstream media comes in during the coming weeks and say that’s only because of EOY discounts and FUDs Tesla margins.

If they beat delivery numbers, why should media say its cause of discounts? And Tesla margins?

Conspiracy theory.

 

[bigsmooth125]

Anyone claiming that this disproves "conspiracy theories" just reflects poorly on their intellectual honesty or their ability to make valid deductions.

Nominated for Ironic Statement of the Year (though there's plenty of time remaining in the year).

 

[CHGolferJim]

According to this article:

Hertz says Tesla fleet of rental EVs are 50 pct cheaper to maintain than fossil fuel cars

Rental car giant says it’s making 50-60% savings on maintenance costs with its recently acquired Tesla fleet compared to fossil fuel cars.

thedriven.io

the findings were released on an earnings call that took place on Monday, August 1, 2022. That would probably put it on the Q2 2022 earnings call (without checking it myself).

Does it surprise you that EV's cost 50-60% less to maintain than ICE cars or that Hertz would promote that finding? Do you drive EV or ICE?

Guessing Hertz “50%-60%” figure includes a big contribution from increased rental revenues through reduced downtime, as briefly mentioned in the article.

 

[capster]

Haha, nice try. Tesla doesn't make the raw materials, which still have to be ordered from suppliers. Sure, Tesla makes their own seats, that's why I said they could ramp up seat production in 6 months, instead of the 2+ years it would take legacy automakers who order their seats from seat manufacturers.

Who’s to say folks at Tesla didn’t think of this 6 (or more) months ago or that they won’t wrap some more batteries in Megapacks & Powerwalls instead of vehicles for a stretch?

 

[Mengy]

My hope is that the P&D also starts including numbers for Megapacks. As energy begins to scale and becomes a larger percentage of revenue, Tesla needs to point out this potential to the market.

I agree. It's time we start paying closer attention to Tesla Energy.


Happy P&D day everyone! (let's hope it's happy....)

 

[EVWatcher]

I agree. It's time we start paying closer attention to Tesla Energy.

I could be proved wrong in 3 hours but I think tesla is more likely to stop sharing P+D reports prior to earnings than it is to include mega pack sales in a automotive P+D report paradigm

Revealing sales numbers 2 days into the quarter is a car thing, and a weird one at that. Not like Apple will announce how many iPhones it sold last quarter later today.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Who’s to say folks at Tesla didn’t think of this 6 (or more) months ago or that they won’t wrap some more batteries in Megapacks & Powerwalls instead of vehicles for a stretch?

Uh, you know that Megapack and Powerwall both use LFP now, and only Model 3 SR+ can use LFP? Further, Tesla doesn't make those packs, they buy them complete with cells from CATL (and separately may lose eligibility due to the "sourcing" requirements of IRA). Some of this is economics, now that patent protection for automotive LFP applications has expired.

TL;dr Panasonic 2170s can not as easily be redirected to TE products anymore. Tesla could restart the SR+ battery line for Model Y, but this was clearly not planned 6 mths ago, since the consequences of the Dec 31st Treasury "surprise" is only now becoming apparent.

 

[bkp_duke]

Uh, you know that Megapack and Powerwall both use LFP now, and only Model 3 SR+ can use LFP? Further, Tesla doesn't make those packs, they buy them complete with cells from CATL (and separately may lose eligibility due to the "sourcing" requirements of IRA). Some of this is economics, now that patent protection for automotive LFP applications has expired.

TL;dr Panasonic 2170s can not as easily be redirected to TE products anymore. Tesla could restart the SR+ battery line for Model Y, but this was clearly not planned 6 mths ago, since the Dec 31st Treasury "surprise" is only now becoming apparent.

Do we have confirmation of LFP in powerwalls? I've seen this mentioned here before, but I can't find an official source for it. If you have one, please share.

 

[Mengy]

I could be proved wrong in 3 hours but I think tesla is more likely to stop sharing P+D reports prior to earnings than it is to include mega pack sales in a automotive P+D report paradigm

Revealing sales numbers 2 days into the quarter is a car thing, and a weird one at that. Not like Apple will announce how many iPhones it sold last quarter later today.

You are probably correct, but I can dream, can't I?