thx1139
Active Member
Its 12:35PM Central time and if you heard about new $7500 tax credit on EVs and were interested in a Tesla and visit the Tesla site you wouldn't know any Tesla's qualify.
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Pretty much if Q4 earnings don't come in better than expected and/or there's a couple surprises on the earnings, next catalyst isn't until the Investors Day in 2 months. Good CPI prints could help in setting the floor for the stock in this 100 range but who knows at this pointLooking forward to catalysts it's hard to see much in the short term. Earnings might still be good enough to move the stock a bit but nothing major. I'm seeing Cybertruck deliveries and the FED halting rate increases as the next things to pin our hopes on.
Someone revisiting from last week would think the 7.5K credits disappearedIts 12:35PM Central time and if you heard about new $7500 tax credit on EVs and were interested in a Tesla and visit the Tesla site you wouldn't know any Tesla's qualify.
I get it but you missed the essence of my post. There’s a huge difference between potential and actual numbers. Haven’t we been waiting for the energy pivot for the past couple of years? I don’t doubt the potential but I’m also a realist.Tesla's new Megafactory in Lantrop, CA is real and is ramping production right now. Tesla just released a new video tour in the past week, and said the facility is capable of building 10,000 megapacks per year. At $2.6M each, that's $26 B in annual revenue from just this one plant. Gross margins should be over 40%. How's that business compared to Auto? How seasonal is demand for Utility-scale infrastructure? How price-inelastic is demand for this product?
And Tesla wants to build at least 2 more Megafactories, including one at Giga Berlin (yes, that's an announcement from Tesla too). The 3rd one might be in Eastern N. America.
If you read between the lines, this statement, along with Elon's statement that they'd be willing drop the price as much as possible to maximize the number of vehicles sold, may bode well for the mission to transition to sustainable energy, but it does not bode well for TSLA. Invest accordingly.
And what would that be like “if” that did happen and Elon took us private?Back in 1919, Henry Ford announced his 'retirement' from Ford Motor. Share price fell 90%. Henry scooped up a controlling interest at a dime on a dollar, then took Ford private.
Ford Motor would not return as a publicly traded company until the Ford Foundation did an IPO on Jan 18, 1956.
"Henry Ford" since Aug 2018 | Arttful Dodger on TMC
Remember That Time Ford Went Private? Elon Musk & Henry Ford | Cleantechnica
Is past prologue for Elon Musk? Why passionate executives matter | Autoblog
Not saying this will happen, jus' sayin' that this has happened in the past...
He has to sell TWTR stock to fund the takeover, of course. We're going full circle baby. This is what the SEC gets for not taking his 420 tweet seriously.And what would that be like “if” that did happen and Elon took us private?
I think our best hope is that the funds accumulating in the final two weeks of December are setting a clear line in the sand and are willing to defend the 100/share line....one can dream at leastI am really surprised that MM’s haven’t dropped the price below $100 to gobble up what must be a mountain of stops that were set in the doubt digits. I would imagine that Shorts piled on hard to try to help facilitate that effort given the huge probability it would happen. Are we seeing a bear trap here just above $100. It would be brilliant in hindsight.
Normally companies issue a profit warning if they need to lower their guidance. Tesla didn’t. It was their choice.A guidance is a just that, a guidance - when all things equal. But there are big macro black swan events that has happened and one needs to look at the performance against that. Ukraine war, supply chain issues, China Covid resurgence and most importantly a massive stock market crash.
One needs to look at the performance against this backdrop and not simply beat the guidance stick. It is just absurd.
Imagine how long the notice would need to be...Its 12:35PM Central time and if you heard about new $7500 tax credit on EVs and were interested in a Tesla and visit the Tesla site you wouldn't know any Tesla's qualify.
I get it but you missed the essence of my post. There’s a huge difference between potential and actual numbers. Haven’t we been waiting for the energy pivot for the past couple of years? I don’t doubt the potential but I’m also a realist.
People should listen to the conference call again. Zach said they were tracking supply chain risk but will hopefully hit 50% yoy production. Elon said currently tracking for a great q4, but knock on wood. Then Zach expressed that there will be a large gap between production and deliveries due to unwinding the wave transition.A guidance is a just that, a guidance - when all things equal. But there are big macro black swan events that has happened and one needs to look at the performance against that. Ukraine war, supply chain issues, China Covid resurgence and most importantly a massive stock market crash.
One needs to look at the performance against this backdrop and not simply beat the guidance stick. It is just absurd.
Can’t have it both ways. The 50% guidance helped raise value and expectations. A miss doesn’t change what management told investors.A guidance is a just that, a guidance - when all things equal. But there are big macro black swan events that has happened and one needs to look at the performance against that. Ukraine war, supply chain issues, China Covid resurgence and most importantly a massive stock market crash.
One needs to look at the performance against this backdrop and not simply beat the guidance stick. It is just absurd.
You mean like this.Imagine how long the notice would need to be...
"If you pick one of these models ___ and you don't add too many options, and your modified income is less than ___ based on filing as ___ and you take delivery before ___ you may qualify for a tax credit of ___ if your annual tax liability is more than ___ and the Secretary of Treasury doesn't change things.
However, if you take delivery after March, all bets are off. "
I doubt that Musk today has the wherewithal to finance an LBO. My guess is the Ford was when initiated his.And what would that be like “if” that did happen and Elon took us private?
Most of the bullishness around Tesla Energy revolves around observed production and deliveries.I get it but you missed the essence of my post. There’s a huge difference between potential and actual numbers. Haven’t we been waiting for the energy pivot for the past couple of years? I don’t doubt the potential but I’m also a realist.
And what would that be like “if” that did happen and Elon took us private?