bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Why are you arguing a point I didn't dispute? You are off in the weeds here.
It's literally what he does. See his avatar.
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Why are you arguing a point I didn't dispute? You are off in the weeds here.
In my opinion ....Thank you for your excellent response and information. Much of what I have seen as positives for Tesla energy and an imminent ramp from Lathrop comes from this poster and thread:
He sounds convincing. You much more so. What do you think of what was posted?
That's fine. I assumed as much and said so if you'd bothered reading the whole post.
Why are you arguing a point I didn't dispute? You are off in the weeds here.
you said:Their "Guidance" didn't even say whether it was growth in production or deliveries.
Buybacks are not the answer … get that darn cybertruck into production!
It would be very bad for smallbeer private individuals like us, who have borne years of pain and risk, with the opportunity to access the longer term upside reward. We would be forced out at distressed price levels. Not pleasant.And what would that be like “if” that did happen and Elon took us private?
I agree mostly with your take on Tesla Solar, but...
Tesla wind? Seriously?
Indeed. Re-re-re-reading the transcript, Zachary may have been referring to that chronological gap, not further comparison of 50 and less than 50. In other words, cars built in Q4 but delivered in Q1. As we saw, the timing on the final ships was tight. Also calls out that the cars are 'in transit' versus unsold 'inventory'.That's why I am speculating that they were hoping for more production. Your scenario requires pretty much everything to go right as the number of inventory units are just too low to hit 47% without giving every effort and hope that all the ships arrive on time, and 2/3 of all deliveries get crammed into December. This is why they were hoping for higher production because they were not going to push.
If they were to keep the same gap of 95.6% cars delivered vs produced, production would need to be like 1.43M or so, an extra 50k worth to hit the "just under 50%". The gap was always going to be there due to unwinding the wave. Your scenario is barely no gap and goes back to pushing for wave deliveries.
But Tesla home heat pumps could happen.He also missed out Tesla Nuclear and Tesla Hydro. Zero sales !
I agree. None of the trading in the past few weeks feel like capitulation to me. It's certainly possible that we can hit a low, consolidate and then move up with the market never capitulating. But to say that capitulation occurred does not seem correct to me. All of the trading has been very orderly; no panic selling that I can see.I don't know why some people keep claiming capitulation already happened. IMO, capitulation doesn't look like that. If you zoom in too closely, everything looks like a crash or a capitulation. Try to think in big "chunks" of money and time if you want to be a better investor.
Check capex cost for a machine.I don't think casting requires a particular factory size.
The same casting machine can make a number of different castings for different models.
The casting capex is offset against less stamping, fewer body shop Robots, less floor space.
What I hope Gen3 involves is a lot more casting, but a mixture of mschine sizes including cheaper 4000 series machines where possible.
On site 4680 LFP cell and structural pack production.
Aliminium bodies, a mixture of painted and unpainted.
4 different Models from the same factory total combined capacity 1-2 million per year.
My view is that Chinese EV makers will only be able to compete against this model by copying it, it seems like the formula for the cheapest possible EVs.
I don't know what Tesla has in mind, but cars on boats are a waste of money, the best logistics is minimal logistics, with cars built as close as possible to the end customer.
Ditto for logistics Chinese will not be able to compete by shipping cars from China to worldwide markets. RORO is an expensive option for entry level cars.
Its 12:35PM Central time and if you heard about new $7500 tax credit on EVs and were interested in a Tesla and visit the Tesla site you wouldn't know any Tesla's qualify.
I sure hope Tesla makes a blog entry for this. Too much confusion, needs a clear answer from Tesla on file.
Tesla can’t say, they have no control over what occurs and when. Treasury (and worst case, the judicial/ legislative branches) do.
So in markets where the IRA doesn't apply, Tesla needs to close the price gap on Chinese LFP.In my opinion ....
- Global domestic clients are voting with their wallets for generic Chinese LFP storage. Except for the sort of client for whom the sticker is important, they buy Tesla. Oh, and some Americans. It is already game over for scale-dominance in this segment and Tesla lost the game.
- Global utility clients are cannier. They will never allow anyone to become scale-dominant. The ones who are susceptible to FUD ("no-one got sacked for buying IBM") or who cannot bring themselves to buy Chinese, buy Tesla. The rest buy Chinese LFP with perhaps a side-order of non-Chinese shrinkwrap splattered with Western badges as camouflage. Tesla is - I think - quite rapidly moving from a wining position to a losing position.
I skim read a lot of other folk out there on the web. Most of them get hung up on trying to figure out a bit of the Tesla storage offer. Mostly they miss the storage competitors. And they don't understand industrial dynamics. And they have no idea re the wider energy game. Plus they don't understand well how this meshes with automotive. So they've zeroed in on one leaf on one tree in one wood inside one forest on one continent in a big planet. Plus other stuff. That chap(ess) you linked to is at leaf-level.
After 30-years in the energy game; from oil well to inverter; wind to solar; hydro to battery; 12V to 1.2 million volts; classroom to factory to field .... I try to put things in context.
But that chap(ess) is still saying things that are worth reading, not ignoring.
(And if Tesla think I'm wrong, and wish the market to understand that, then Tesla should publish regular, reliable facts about both their own business and the global market; and answer properly posed questions from knowledgeable people.)
Anybody have real evidence of Lathrop ramping up? (Didn't Tesla say 150-200% growth not 1,000% growth in energy?) You'd think there would be guys with binoculars scouting out the factory. Hard to hide semi truck sized batteries leaving the factory. Thanks PB for a well thought out bear case analysis.
I thought the game being played here has everything to do with battery production and time to deployment. Currently the Chinese are winning in battery production. Then there's Tesla heavy investing into 4680s, refineries, megapack manufacturing, and pack to site deployment to compete massively in this area. The premise is that Tesla megapacks will be well stocked, has faster deployment time, and on par/cheaper than generic LFP Chinese packs. Also I'm not sure if too many people want the Chinese to control a country's power grid. Seems kind of a national security risk.In my opinion ....
- Global domestic clients are voting with their wallets for generic Chinese LFP storage. Except for the sort of client for whom the sticker is important, they buy Tesla. Oh, and some Americans. It is already game over for scale-dominance in this segment and Tesla lost the game.
- Global utility clients are cannier. They will never allow anyone to become scale-dominant. The ones who are susceptible to FUD ("no-one got sacked for buying IBM") or who cannot bring themselves to buy Chinese, buy Tesla. The rest buy Chinese LFP with perhaps a side-order of non-Chinese shrinkwrap splattered with Western badges as camouflage. Tesla is - I think - quite rapidly moving from a wining position to a losing position.
I skim read a lot of other folk out there on the web. Most of them get hung up on trying to figure out a bit of the Tesla storage offer. Mostly they miss the storage competitors. And they don't understand industrial dynamics. And they have no idea re the wider energy game. Plus they don't understand well how this meshes with automotive. So they've zeroed in on one leaf on one tree in one wood inside one forest on one continent in a big planet. Plus other stuff. That chap(ess) you linked to is at leaf-level.
After 30-years in the energy game; from oil well to inverter; wind to solar; hydro to battery; 12V to 1.2 million volts; classroom to factory to field .... I try to put things in context.
But that chap(ess) is still saying things that are worth reading, not ignoring.
(And if Tesla think I'm wrong, and wish the market to understand that, then Tesla should publish regular, reliable facts about both their own business and the global market; and answer properly posed questions from knowledgeable people.)
Wait ... I believe the CEO has a very big megaphone now. All he has to do is tweet asking why Y doesn't get any EV credit when a bunch of hybrids do at Secretary Pete.Link to petition to change language in IRA to include all versions of Model Y (currently 15,000 signatures as of this posting):