Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mars ☰mperor]

SR+ also available in China.
Delivery: end of June

Now I am torn: get imported SR+ or wait for GF3.

 

[DaveT]

And why is that? The 35k was available to order to everyone in the US. Now they are updating price. It wasn’t a promise that they will always sell at 35k. It was just posted at the launch as starting at 35k...not a plan forever.

The problem was that until recently US reservation holders didn’t get to order $35k car for which they’d put the deposit. That issue isn’t there anymore.

We'll see, but chances are Tesla will never sell a $35k car, at least for the foreseeable future. The SR will likely have AP bundled, making it $37k.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Poor Fred. He’s probably checking himself into a mental institution with this latest price change. I can see him somewhere shaking his fists at the sky

Technically not a price change. A product change.

 

[Cherry Wine]

@Cherry Wine good call on those 270 calls you sold. Did you buy them back today or are you going to wait till tomorrow? If I had sold those calls, I would have panicked and bought them back when Tesla hit 280 earlier in the week. But if you had the perseverance to hold, you would have been rewarded today. On the other hand, I picked up a few more Nov and Jan 400 calls today. That's more my play. I also bought some 365 puts yesterday that came in handy today.

I bought them back today at $1.50. I’ve been burned a couple of times by panic buying only to see the stock price fall again eventually, so I don’t do that anymore. I was prepared to roll them out and up again to next week, though.

I have no idea how this will be received by the market tomorrow....

I’m going to guess: poorly. The leasing feeds into the lack of demand narrative, the $35k going off menu feeds into the poor margin narrative, the removal of LR RWD feeds into the production issues narrative. There’s lots here for bears. And some for bulls, but I’m having a hard time being the latter and not the former lately.

I hope to be wrong and eating crow come the morning.

Edit: And apparently SR+ is available in China; bears will point to this as exhaustion of high trim demand there already.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Meanwhile, Fred WARNING (NO LINK)
"Tesla kills base $35,000 Model 3, increases prices, makes Autopilot standard"


What is wrong with this guy?

 

[Navin]

Whoa. Assume 3 year lease. No way Tesla is going to make assumption that regulators will be FSD ready. Can we thus sssume Tesla ride share model will be different than we assumed. More like Uber / Lyft but with better economics for driver ??

 

[Fact Checking]

IMO Tesla is morally obligated to offer every 2016 reservation holder the opportunity to buy a $35K Model 3 or whatever the advertised base price was in their country.

Also note inflation of 5.32%: $35k in 2019 is now worth about $37k.

 

[kyzhk]

Using the latest NoA, and seeing their labeled outputs posted by verygreen, I can see why they are. Their detection, classification and control capabilities are amazing. I’ve never seen such consistent perfect 3d bounding boxes from 2d video.

Do you have a link?

 

[Zaxxon]

Elon time.

Leases do not operate on Elon time.

Well, let's check back in 2 months. Let's say on June 11th and see if the $35k option is still available then.

Based on today's blog post, it's gone now. *All vehicles* are now bundled with Autopilot, meaning $35k is no longer an option.

Granted, they have muddled their messaging by not updating the S/X/Y configurators yet, but the intent is clear. So either $35k is gone or they didn't proof their blog post very well.

 

[Carl Raymond]

But this is a different fish. A car that goes from user driven to self driven, mid lease, is a car that appreciated rather than depreciated. This clause will encourage people to buy rather than lease, if they believe FSD will arrive.

Noteworthy that it doesn’t have to arrive everywhere, or even in the USA. It just has to arrive *somewhere* where there’s a FSD friendly road system and transport authority, with a population to support the ex-lease fleet. “Robotistan”.

Ok. I’ve thought about this for a minute. It’s a catalyst. If the market doesn’t move, people are a bit thick. Name another new car that you might buy for $35K and sell for $50K three years later?

 

[Fact Checking]

Based on today's blog post, it's gone now. *All vehicles* are now bundled with Autopilot, meaning $35k is no longer an option.

Not so:

"Given the popularity of the Standard Plus relative to the Standard, we have made the decision to simplify our production operations to better optimize cost, minimize complexity and streamline operations. As a result, Model 3 Standard will now be a software-limited version of the Standard Plus, and we are taking it off the online ordering menu, which just means that to get it, customers will need to call us or visit any one of the several hundred Tesla stores. Deliveries of Model 3 Standard will begin this weekend."​

 

[Artful Dodger]

Software limited leather.

Yeah sure, but it's VEGAN software.

 

[MP3Mike]

Seriously, if ya wanted a SR you had a month to place your order. No whining now

I don't agree, since people had no idea when the $35k Model 3 would be available they couldn't necessarily time getting out of their lease to this one month period.

 

[Pras]

At least Tesla can avoid delivery hell. With very limited options, and most sales in SR+, they don’t have to sell / match orders before shipping. Also reduces inventory buildups.

 

[Zaxxon]

Not so:

"Given the popularity of the Standard Plus relative to the Standard, we have made the decision to simplify our production operations to better optimize cost, minimize complexity and streamline operations. As a result, Model 3 Standard will now be a software-limited version of the Standard Plus, and we are taking it off the online ordering menu, which just means that to get it, customers will need to call us or visit any one of the several hundred Tesla stores. Deliveries of Model 3 Standard will begin this weekend."​

That doesn't say what you think it says. You can call for the SR battery size. It will have Autopilot.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

SR will probably be gone from the off-menu as well within 1-2 months.

Why?
It's just a software limited SR+, so manufacturing SR is absolutely the same.
Even if there is literally 0 order, Tesla will have it so they can say they kept their promise. It's not much of a hassle.

Plus, imagine the media's reaction if completely remove it.

 

[MP3Mike]

Not so:

"Given the popularity of the Standard Plus relative to the Standard, we have made the decision to simplify our production operations to better optimize cost, minimize complexity and streamline operations. As a result, Model 3 Standard will now be a software-limited version of the Standard Plus, and we are taking it off the online ordering menu, which just means that to get it, customers will need to call us or visit any one of the several hundred Tesla stores. Deliveries of Model 3 Standard will begin this weekend."​

That doesn't say that it will be $35k and not come with AP.

 

[Pras]

Why?
It's just a software limited SR+, so manufacturing SR is absolutely the same.
Even if there is literally 0 order, Tesla will have it so they can say they kept their promise. It's not much of a hassle.

Plus, imagine the media's reaction if completely remove it.

Even the FUDsters are bored by these changes...don’t worry about stock it will bounce around a bit.

The real question is how many cars do they sell more. With leasing and China SR+ they have opened new levers, and by bundling and lowering the net price they may have added more.

 

[Buckminster]

And where's your evidence that Tesla has more orders than they can fulfill?

Dave - the evidence you are looking for is in the UK. Unfortunately, due to Brexit, it is on a need to know basis.

OT - Dave, don't do an "Assange". But, if you do, we will remember the old you fondly - without the weird beard.

 

[neroden]

Seriously? Guidance is 2GWh, that in itself would be more than doubling deliveries, when we take into account that they won't have a large Australian project this time around.

They already have two large projects of similar size on deck, IIRC. California and another large Australian project, in fact.