Interesting wording. It doesn't mean they don't have another bottleneck right now -- the "fundamental constraint" is not necessarily the "current constraint". More on that later.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Looks like Standard range plus is available in Europe now
sundaymorning
Active Member
I agree, execution could be better. I think that profits for M3 standard will be put on hold until they’re able to pump out 7-10k M3s/week. Or at least until Shanghai GF is online. With Munroe stating that margins in Shanghai could be as high as 40% I think they’ll shift standard range production to China. They’ll need another 6-9 months of production before profits for the standard could be realized. For now, having the plus gives them a great opportunity to capitalize on a few extra grand.
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Does Tesla really need to change the lineup every other week? It’s Ridiculous.
I wasn’t really looking forward to another red day induced by demand hysteria.
Also what happens if regulators do not approve full self driving on vehicles with the current sensors suite? They continue to overpromise big time on autonomy.
I wasn’t really looking forward to another red day induced by demand hysteria.
Also what happens if regulators do not approve full self driving on vehicles with the current sensors suite? They continue to overpromise big time on autonomy.
Are they production constrained? Or is it demand weakness? That is the million dollar question.
Either way, leasing is definitely the way to go to increase demand. If you look at all the other major brands in this price range (Merc, BMW, Audi, Jaguar, Lexus, Acura, Infiniti, etc), more than half to two-thirds of all new car sales are on leases.
Pras
Member
Right. Some don’t get it or what, Tesla’s goal is to sell all cars they make. Unless by magic they start making a whole lot more, what is the point of selling cheap if you can sell pricier?!
Wonder if I can FAX in my order?
Don TLR
Active Member
Some serious dark skies you have there..
Canon 5D IV 16mm SIO 2500 30 sec It was very light here so not typical settings..
It was a full Moon and an Eclipse, so quite the special night.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Don TLR
Active Member
Still the FUD chasers are constantly on the lookout for the SR Model..
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yup, look at the headline he just wrote:
"Tesla kills base $35,000 Model 3, increases prices, makes Autopilot standard"
Still trolling for clicks.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
The SR is PR and its existence at $35K matters.
It fulfils a promise. It proves that electrification is for everybody, not just the well heeled. That in turn matters politically. It allows govts of any left/right persuasion to be pro EV and set policies accordingly, which of course helps Tesla, and TSLA.
I know I needle some of the superbulls on here but tbh the overpromising on autonomy is my only long term concern with Tesla.
I think the whole fully autonomous taxi network idea is like at least 6+ years out.
I think there’s a path where they can maybe do it sooner with having one licensed rider always getting in the driver seat, but true autonomy is something that I just don’t see happening that soon. Simply way too many edge cases and regulatory hurdles.
I think the whole fully autonomous taxi network idea is like at least 6+ years out.
I think there’s a path where they can maybe do it sooner with having one licensed rider always getting in the driver seat, but true autonomy is something that I just don’t see happening that soon. Simply way too many edge cases and regulatory hurdles.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
They didn't say that. There's a wide spectrum of technological solutions that are not "100% autonomous all the time", which are still economically superior to "taxi driver" based service:
- A fleet dispatch center with "remote drivers" who are trained to take over when there's an FSD disengagement event.
- Speed limits for when the car is driving unattended.
- Geofencing and geomapping based on fleet feedback.
- A quick response fleet technicians who can recover malfunctioning or stuck cars.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
It seems you find everything Tesla does concerning.
And both are true.
1) It is good to increase addressable market by offering a $35k car.
2) It is even better if they can sell out capacity to make Model 3s at a base price of $39.5k.
And if they can increase demand for PM3 with selected internet advertising to the point the base model is less than 5% of production and wait times for the base model increase to over 3 months even better.
OK, so finally, now that I've caught up, my take on this.
(1) This confirms my suspicion of production bottlenecks. Specifically, production delays due to downtime from switching between variants. They seem to have very serious problems with production delays due to switching between variants, and are taking drastic measures to reduce them by eliminating options.
The total elimination of two major hardware variants (LR RWD and SR-) is clearly for the purpose for removing downtime due to variant switching. They clearly have not figured out how to switch variants without delays in production. Although you can "call and order", I suspect they're not maknig any more LR RWDs. Expect some people with LR RWD orders (specifically white interior) to never get their car; they'll have to change their configuration.
SR in particular would have been a *substantial* production line change due to major changes to interior materials. For only 1/7 of the SR/SR+ orders (and probably less than 10% of total orders), it's not worth it.
Therefore, I predict three things:
(A) Expect them to drop a paint color. It would make tons of sense to drop the slow multi-coat colors and switch to flat white and flat red. Yeah, I know some people really like those colors, but are those people really paying enough to compensate Tesla for the slowdowns? If not that, they might drop "midnight silver metallic", which is the most redundant. I think they need black, white, red, and blue.
(B) Expect them to attempt to remove differences between Euro, China, and US spec cars. The charge port differences may be forever, but don't be surprised if we start getting Euro-spec taillights in the US, just to minimize downtime on production line switches.
(C) They may end up specializing each general assembly line. There are currently basically 3 hardware trims x 2 interiors x 5 paint colors x 4 regions (basically, North America, Europe LHD, China, and RHD). If each factory has one line for white interior and one for black interior, and there's a factory in the US, one in Europe, and one in China, this minimizes switching.
It does make me think they should have gone with a middle-of-the-road grey interior so that people who insist on light-colored interiors and those who insist on dark-colored interiors would both have been satisfied with one interior.
Other observations:
(2) They are still way too optimistic about autonomy.
(3) They seem comfortable enough with demand to actually *raise* prices. Demand is not an issue. Supply is an issue.
(4) But they're not totally comfortable with demand because they opened leasing. The leasing will not look great on the accounting books. Dunno whether they'll be able to offload the financing to bank partners given that they're gonna keep the cars at the end of the leases. Clearly cash flow is not a primary worry here, or they wouldn't have started leasing like this.
The Audi A4 starts at $37,400, the BMW 3-Series starts at just over $40,000 and the Mercedes C-class starts at just over $41,000.
The Model 3 SR+ is better equipped than all of them and is also cheaper than all of them with the $3750 tax credit.
The Model 3 SR+ is better equipped than all of them and is also cheaper than all of them with the $3750 tax credit.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
They are not promising FSD buyers fully autonomous level 4 or 5 in three years.
They are implying to lease holders they will need the cars back in 3 years because they will have full autonomy services.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
French M3:
Autonomie Standard Plus
42 600 €
Transmission intégrale Dual Motor
Intérieur Premium
Longue autonomie
53 000 €
Performance
62 800 €
Autonomie Standard Plus
42 600 €
Transmission intégrale Dual Motor
Intérieur Premium
Longue autonomie
53 000 €
Performance
62 800 €
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