Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ElectricIAC]

My investing superpower is finding good companies to buy. My kryptonite is knowing when to sell!

That’s easy. Never sell TSLA unless you need to meet basic necessities and have exhausted all other avenues.

This is not financial advise and shouldn’t be taken as such. Don’t try this at home.

 

[Mengy]

I've done it twice so far this year, a bird in the hand and all that, plus I need beer money for the year. I'm OK with missing out on some future profits, I'll have plenty if the stock just keeps going up from here.

For those of us who have been invested since before the 2019 run up, I really don't see a problem with taking some profits now and then to enjoy life. Even at today's low SP many of us are still up over 5X on our cost basis, some of us much more than that. Turning $1 into $5 is never a bad trade no matter when you do it.


Of course, this doesn't mean I'M selling any shares right now!

 

[JRP3]

What I don't understand is the future is so bight for TSLA and even the current numbers are fantastic why are people saying this is a dead cat bounce? It'll be $50, etc.

What "people" are saying that?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

What "people" are saying that?

"Sources close to the matter"

 

[SeaNile]

I guess all the BS articles I read online.

 

[jerry33]

What I don't understand is the future is so bight for TSLA and even the current numbers are fantastic why are people saying this is a dead cat bounce? It'll be $50, etc.

Simple. There are many who want Tesla to fail, and will say anything to achieve that goal. Unfortunately, some Tesla fans get caught up in the FUD. Remember that a 40% YoY increase (Q3) was seen as a negative. No one in their right mind or without an agenda would see that as anything but super positive. Also the Market Makers and Hedge funds control the SP whenever there is low volume because the amount of options on TSLA is stupidly large. It's to the MM's and HF's advantage to do so because they can the the money from those who are holding the options.

 

[Cosmacelf]

What I don't understand is the future is so bight for TSLA and even the current numbers are fantastic why are people saying this is a dead cat bounce? It'll be $50, etc.

Many reasons. “Value” investors (look up the term) don’t understand the economics of growth companies. Tesla is also a VERY widely followed stock, so you’ll have opinions on every side of the story. And anything with the word Tesla in the headline sells clicks, so people are incentivized to make up crap just so they can write an edgy article.

Simple. There are many who want Tesla to fail, and will say anything to achieve that goal. Unfortunately, some Tesla fans get caught up in the FUD. Remember that a 40% YoY increase (Q3) was seen as a negative. No one in their right mind or without an agenda would see that as anything but super positive. Also the Market Makers and Hedge funds control the SP whenever there is low volume because the amount of options on TSLA is stupidly large. It's to the MM's and HF's advantage to do so because they can the the money from those who are holding the options.

41% increase in unit volume in 2022, but a whopping 51% increase in revenue in 2022, which IMHO, is the better metric for Tesla since it does more than sell vehicles.

 

[30seconds]

I'm not sure why Tesla would keep that quiet instead of announcing they were doing/did it

Sometimes companies purchase exercised stock options instead of letting them out as new float.

 

[bkp_duke]

Ford enjoys making negative money.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620051831802970112

DEFLATION in action. @JPOW - pay attention.

Tesla's price drops were pulling in a good number of people with Mach-E orders (per the Mustang Mach-E forums). I wonder how many of those that haven't taken Tesla delivery will cancel and go back, or stick with their Tesla orders . . .

 

[M|S|M MYP]

DEFLATION in action. @JPOW - pay attention.

Tesla's price drops were pulling in a good number of people with Mach-E orders (per the Mustang Mach-E forums). I wonder how many of those that haven't taken Tesla delivery will cancel and go back, or stick with their Tesla orders . . .

Let that sink in

 

[StealthP3D]

Yeah probably will never use EA ccs if it break cars all time. Got to say this is one issue ICE never have to deal with, where getting gas can break the car (unless human error like putting diesel into a gas engine). EA is not making adoption any easier.

You've never heard of "bad gas"? Fortunately, much reduced these days due to E10 and newer underground tanks mandated by the EPA and better filtering and water separators. But it can still happen. Gas that doesn't meet the octane rating can total the engine while gas with too much water in it is more of a "will it run" problem but has been known to ruin engines under the right conditions.

 

[Hiline]

View attachment 901319

Let that sink in

While Mach E will be breaking 100k units a year, Model Y will be breaking a million. Let that sink in as well

 

[MartinAustin]

View attachment 901319

Let that sink in

Competitors whose BEVs consume their ICE profits will be unwilling to increase production. I wonder what that will do to their 2023 market share

 

[Artful Dodger]

@farzyness lays down the smak on would-be competitors for the Tesla Compact car:

Tesla's Compact Car: Print Money & Kill Competition - CLIP #TSLA | Farzad Mesbahi

Two things hold true with Tesla's Compact car strategy:

1. Profit Implication: Tesla wins (makes a giant amount of money), and
2. Volume Implication:
   1. nobody will buy anything except the compact car, and
   2. everybody else is in ruins.

That's some pretty good farzyness in a Compact video, wot?

Cheers for short (1':54") video clips!

 

[jerry33]

1. nobody will buy anything except the compact car,

I don't get this one. Compact cars have been around for a very long time, yet people still buy large cars (and pickups). If you haul six people plus luggage regularly, a compact car isn't going to cut it. (or is there additional context left out?) I do agree that the vast majority of compact car purchasers will buy the Tesla.

 

[petit_bateau]

EDIT: Actually, something must be wrong here because 759K + 596K = 1.355M, which is more than 1,298,434 that comes from Tesla's investor relations page. Anyway, it is still quite high and it'll be interesting to see where M3 and MY end up overall when more reliable data come out. Wouldn't surprise me if 3 and Y break into top 10 best-sellers in 2022...

From Electrek: Tesla bursts into top 10 best-selling cars in the world with 2 models; industry should be scared

"According to data compiled by Focus to Move, electric vehicles, more specifically the Tesla Model Y and Model 3, have entered the top 10 best-selling electric vehicles in the world:

1. Toyota Corolla: 1.12 million (down 2% vs last year)
2. Toyota RAV4: 870,000 (down 14% versus last year)
3. Ford F-Series: 787,000 (down 9% versus last year)
4. Tesla Model Y: 759,000 (up 88% versus last year)
5. Toyota Camry: 675,000 (down 3% versus last year)
6. Honda CR-V: 601,000 (down 18% versus last year)
7. Tesla Model 3: 596,000 (up 4% versus last year)"

In 2023 the Model Y production is likely to be somewhere between 1.2m and 1.6m.

The 1.2m of Model Y corresponds to Tesla's guidance for 1.8m total. The 1.6m of Model Y corresponds to my current forecast of 2.2m total.

Either way it seems likely the Model Y will be the #1 best selling car in the world in 2023.

A little bit extra production of the Model 3 could also move it up a few notches.

 

[StealthP3D]

The fuse is lit. Nothing to say waiting for the BOOM.

This will be a very good year for Tesla

I am pleased that so far nobody thinks "profit taking" is a good idea at this absurdly low SP.

I'm very bullish on Tesla long-term but I think people need to be aware that in the short term, anything can happen with regards to the share price and that is true even if Tesla continues to perform at a high level. This is why I always take a long-term view when the stock market and large amounts of money are involved. The volatility of stocks and the overall stock market is under-appreciated by most investors. The secret is to view stocks as a long-term asset and not worry about the shorter-term fluctuations.

Investors regularly over-estimate their ability to guess where markets are headed.

 

[Hiline]

@farzyness lays down the smak on would-be competitors for the Tesla Compact car:

Tesla's Compact Car: Print Money & Kill Competition - CLIP #TSLA | Farzad Mesbahi

Two things hold true with Tesla's Compact car strategy:

1. Profit Implication: Tesla wins (makes a giant amount of money), and
2. Volume Implication:
   1. nobody will buy anything except the compact car, and
   2. everybody else is in ruins.

That's some pretty good farzyness in a Compact video, wot?

Cheers for short (1':54") video clips!

It’ll benefit society if people ditch larger cars, which consume more materials and energy to build and drive, in favor of smaller cars.

Make compact cars great again!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't get this one.

Perhaps you should tag @farzyness in your reply? He's on TMC.

If I was to hazard a guess, I'd say the comment is to customers shopping in the same segment that the Compact car will compete. To me, that'd be Corolla and Rav4 (for the sedan and CUVs, respectively).

Cheers!

 

[Mengy]

I don't get this one. Compact cars have been around for a very long time, yet people still buy large cars (and pickups). If you haul six people plus luggage regularly, a compact car isn't going to cut it. (or is there additional context left out?) I do agree that the vast majority of compact car purchasers will buy the Tesla.

It's a comparative statement. Meaning, the volume of the Tesla Compact sales compared to all other Tesla sales will be MUCH higher. America notwithstanding, in most of the world compact cars sell in much higher volumes than large cars, so once Tesla has a compact EV for sale it's going to gobble up marketshare (worldwide) like a Dyson vacuum cleaner.