Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

3 new Cadi's! But let's change the rules first... else no margins and BK?

"GM is also pushing for changing the classification rules so the Lyriq can qualify for the new federal EV tax credit."

Expect 3 Cadillac EVs this year; CEO

Cadillac had a busy year in 2022, and the evidence is about to come tumbling in. During a performance review presentation, the brand’s boss revealed that Cadillac would unveil three new EVs in 2023. Cadillac […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Doesn’t the LYric qualify under the new rules now same as the Model Y? It’s under $80k. I’d just assumed it did when they looped the higher end Model Ys in.

GM announcing new vehicles this year is the new FSD in 2 weeks joke. I’m sure GM will produce a handful… for employees, YouTubers, and MSM reviewers to drive… and Netflix appearances. They really need to STFU until they can actually sell these to consumers.


Also, am I the only one who thinks LYRIQ and their whole “Q”s and “Y”s naming is the sort of name a 12 year old cooked up thinking it was super clever?

Like they saw “Cybertruck” out there and thought “Oh… we need a weirder edgier sound that that“. Surprised they didn’t launch a Cadilac “TRYCK” or “TRUQ” Yet… maybe both “TRYQ”?

 

[bkp_duke]

I think that is covered by the "least productive".

You have to be really careful counting keystrokes. A company I used to work for used to have keystroke metrics, but some people figured out that you could just add periods to the abbreviations in addresses, then remove them to get keystrokes without actually doing any work. Then they implemented "productivity" requirements, i.e. you had to work x accounts per day. People ended up fighting over the "easy" accounts, leaving nobody working the "difficult" accounts.

There were also cases where people, that were very good at their jobs, would hit their productivity requirement after ~5 hours, so they would just surf the web, or read a book, for the rest of the day. (No point in working past the required number of accounts if you weren't rewarded in any way for it, and you couldn't really be punished because you had met the required metrics.)

One article I found was they were fired, among other things, for video recording meetings. NY is a 2-party consent state, so technically they were breaking the law.

Group: Tesla workers fired after union push at NY plant

Several employees at a Tesla factory in New York have been fired a day after launching union organizing efforts, according to Tesla Workers United. It is asking the NLRB for injunctive relief “to prevent irreparable destruction of employee rights resulting from Tesla’s unlawful conduct.”

finance.yahoo.com

I expect the union shills, however, to conflate this as "they were fired for trying to organize."

I suspect if they were spending so much time "trying to organize", they probably were not working as hard at their jobs as colleagues that were not involved.


And as some here have mentioned - data-labelers are clearly a dead-end position with Tesla. Tesla made that clear last year, and it will be a compelling argument in any litigation that the pro-union types have to overcome.

 

[Ogre]

I’ve owned BPTIX for 2 years for the SpaceX exposure. Then it was 45% TSLA and 5% SpaceX, so I’m a little surprised to see the exposure drop to 31%. I suppose that is from buying other companies with inflows, as I don’t think Baron has sold any TSLA or SpaceX, but I don’t follow it closely.

SpaceX is worth a lot more than it was worth 2 years ago. Tesla?? Not sure when you bought in, but maybe not so much? Some portfolios rebalance, others do not. Also, the increase in SpaceX might simply be that they were able to increase their stake.

 

[JRP3]

NY is a 2-party consent state, so technically they were breaking the law.

As in the article it seems it's a one party consent state, which would seem to make Tesla's rule illegal.

New York Recording Law | Digital Media Law Project

www.dmlp.org

 

[bkp_duke]

As in the article it seems it's a one party consent state, which would seem to make Tesla's rule illegal.

New York Recording Law | Digital Media Law Project

www.dmlp.org

Could be the case, but even if so, it would be against the contract those employees sign.

 

[unk45]

“Drivers do not have to use multiple apps and accounts to charge, by requiring that a single method of identification works across all chargers;”
If you take that literally, it would mean that Tesla (as a charging provider) should implement a way to roam with all the other charging providers.
That’s actually a big pain point in Europe (probably more so than in the US due to the multitude of countries and languages). I have a wallet in my car with no less than 6 charge cards, most of them practically unused.

I always wondered why Tesla didn’t make a charge card to enable charging on other networks, using the same billing as for the supercharger network. This requirement from the White House seems to force Tesla to introduce something like that.

I have two cards for Italian, one for Slovenian, one for Croatian and a handful of others. I do think it to be both logical and essential to adopt a single payment protocol for all. Just as with credit and debit cards today the ubiquitous Samsung Pay/ApplePay/AliPay digital wallets could easily be adapted to serve, just as QR codes could be used as restaurants and service providers globally use them. I am confident we're not far away from that sort of solution in both NA and Europe. Oddly perhaps, some already accept that for charging in Brasil.

 

[Fred42]

The fact that it is Ford planning this and not GM or VW or Toyota speaks to who is actually taking Tesla and EVs seriously .

GM already split into two companies in 2009, a company for the future and another with the liabilities and unneeded assets that made some payments to creditors but was left to die. Ford has suffered with higher costs ever since because they avoided the restructuring opportunity to reduce costs and didn't take the bailout money, although they did later get a long term federal loan.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Clearly I do not know what I am talking about. Carry on!

You guys are such fun. I don’t even have to look at the ticker anymore.

 

[cliff harris]

I haven't seen much discussion about greentheonly's reveal of whats involved in HW4.
I think its going to be very hard for Tesla to talk up HW4 without is becoming implicit that HW3 is infgerior, and very likely not capable of full FSD, or even FSD in circumstances outside of wholemars's daily commute...

If Tesla are to admit that HW3 can't do FSD, then they will have a lot of angry HW3 owners, and a lot of very angry FSD purchasers, given then have already said there is no upgrade path.

I think there is a big blindspot among tesla bull investors regarding this issue. The sensible thing would be for Tesla to either knuckle-down and work out how to provide a HW3-HW4 FREE upgrade for people who bought FSD, or to set aside funds to compensate people who very very clearly were sold 'FSD capable' vehicles which may not be. Its also TERRIBLE for PR either way, but worse if they just stick two fingers up to HW3 owners.

I'm a long term Tesla bull who bought an autopilot 1 car, then recently a HW3 model Y with FSD. Currently, my fancy £80,000 car has no parking sensors or equivlanet functionality, cannot autopark, and has trouble knowing when to turn its wipers on and off. Tesla REALLY need to get their act together regarding living up to their promises regarding TeslaVision, its pretty much the worse thing about the company right now...

Said as a long term investor and full supporter of the company for at least 8 years now.

 

[willow_hiller]

I think its going to be very hard for Tesla to talk up HW4 without is becoming implicit that HW3 is infgerior, and very likely not capable of full FSD, or even FSD in circumstances outside of wholemars's daily commute...

If Tesla are to admit that HW3 can't do FSD, then they will have a lot of angry HW3 owners, and a lot of very angry FSD purchasers, given then have already said there is no upgrade path.

This was already done at the last earnings call. And I think they squared that circle pretty sufficiently:

"Hardware 3 will not be as good as Hardware 4, but I'm confident that Hardware 3 will so far exceed the average -- the safety of the average human. So how do we get ultimately to -- let's say, for argument's sake, if Hardware 3 can be, say, 200% or 300% safer than human, Hardware 4 might be 500% or 600%. It will be Hardware 5 beyond that. But what really matters is are we improving the average safety on the road."

Yes, HW3 is inferior to HW4, but both will be safer than human drivers. If Tesla can deliver FSD with HW3, there are no broken promises and no need for an expensive retrofit.

 

[lafrisbee]

Originally Tesla thought that other manufacturers would quickly step up to the plate. We've all seen how that went. I'm sure they thought at the time that Superchargers would be just one of many. Agreed they should change to allow more charge port locations, better trailer access, etc.

They DO step up to the plate... the dinner plate.

 

[lafrisbee]

I haven't seen much discussion about greentheonly's reveal of whats involved in HW4.
I think its going to be very hard for Tesla to talk up HW4 without is becoming implicit that HW3 is infgerior, and very likely not capable of full FSD, or even FSD in circumstances outside of wholemars's daily commute...

If Tesla are to admit that HW3 can't do FSD, then they will have a lot of angry HW3 owners, and a lot of very angry FSD purchasers, given then have already said there is no upgrade path.

I think there is a big blindspot among tesla bull investors regarding this issue. The sensible thing would be for Tesla to either knuckle-down and work out how to provide a HW3-HW4 FREE upgrade for people who bought FSD, or to set aside funds to compensate people who very very clearly were sold 'FSD capable' vehicles which may not be. Its also TERRIBLE for PR either way, but worse if they just stick two fingers up to HW3 owners.

I'm a long term Tesla bull who bought an autopilot 1 car, then recently a HW3 model Y with FSD. Currently, my fancy £80,000 car has no parking sensors or equivlanet functionality, cannot autopark, and has trouble knowing when to turn its wipers on and off. Tesla REALLY need to get their act together regarding living up to their promises regarding TeslaVision, its pretty much the worse thing about the company right now...

Said as a long term investor and full supporter of the company for at least 8 years now.

Tesla does not have to "talk up" HW4. It is done. No one is going to buy a Tesla because the Hardware is not that much better than HW3.

 

[Speedr117]

I haven't seen much discussion about greentheonly's reveal of whats involved in HW4.
I think its going to be very hard for Tesla to talk up HW4 without is becoming implicit that HW3 is infgerior, and very likely not capable of full FSD, or even FSD in circumstances outside of wholemars's daily commute...

If Tesla are to admit that HW3 can't do FSD, then they will have a lot of angry HW3 owners, and a lot of very angry FSD purchasers, given then have already said there is no upgrade path.

I think there is a big blindspot among tesla bull investors regarding this issue. The sensible thing would be for Tesla to either knuckle-down and work out how to provide a HW3-HW4 FREE upgrade for people who bought FSD, or to set aside funds to compensate people who very very clearly were sold 'FSD capable' vehicles which may not be. Its also TERRIBLE for PR either way, but worse if they just stick two fingers up to HW3 owners.

I'm a long term Tesla bull who bought an autopilot 1 car, then recently a HW3 model Y with FSD. Currently, my fancy £80,000 car has no parking sensors or equivlanet functionality, cannot autopark, and has trouble knowing when to turn its wipers on and off. Tesla REALLY need to get their act together regarding living up to their promises regarding TeslaVision, its pretty much the worse thing about the company right now...

Said as a long term investor and full supporter of the company for at least 8 years now.

That's why I think FSD has gone up to $15,000. To cover the cost of either upgrading the hardware, or getting them a new car...

 

[petit_bateau]

This was already done at the last earnings call. And I think they squared that circle pretty sufficiently:

"Hardware 3 will not be as good as Hardware 4, but I'm confident that Hardware 3 will so far exceed the average -- the safety of the average human. So how do we get ultimately to -- let's say, for argument's sake, if Hardware 3 can be, say, 200% or 300% safer than human, Hardware 4 might be 500% or 600%. It will be Hardware 5 beyond that. But what really matters is are we improving the average safety on the road."

Yes, HW3 is inferior to HW4, but both will be safer than human drivers. If Tesla can deliver FSD with HW3, there are no broken promises and no need for an expensive retrofit.

I was in a Tesla store in the UK a few days ago. I overheard prospective customers asking precisely about these issues that @cliff harris points out:

" no parking sensors or equivlanet functionality, cannot autopark, and has trouble knowing when to turn its wipers on and off. Tesla REALLY need to get their act together regarding living up to their promises regarding TeslaVision, its pretty much the worse thing about the company right now..."

We should listen to messengers who carry bad news, not ignore them.

 

[Ogre]

Yes, HW3 is inferior to HW4, but both will be safer than human drivers. If Tesla can deliver FSD with HW3, there are no broken promises and no need for an expensive retrofit.

I never bought FSD because it never quite had the features I wanted. This kind of makes me glad I didn’t because I’m not entirely sure Tesla is adding “Nap while FSDing” to their legit offering. I hope Tesla has covered their legal bases here (I suspect they have??) on the newer cars, but I think the older version of FSD promised essentially Robotaxi which could be awkward for some older Model S owners.

Musk did say something about nag-free driving though so perhaps it’ll have something? Very curious where this goes.

 

[growler23]

Just saw a fine video from The Limiting Factor about the Tesla Semi (on Patreon only). Will be released to general public next week.
Imperfect recollection on my part, but as per his usual, greatly researched and thought out on Jordan's part. Will summarize for the group.

He introduces with: Why did the Semi not get released until 2022? He shows:
- Battery energy density (Wh/kg) insufficient until at least 2019
- Power train efficiency (originally 80%) needed to get to 90%, particularly since the inefficiency gets invoked twice during regen. This was achieved by 2021.
- 2019-2020 had Tesla's cell supply only increasing a tiny amount. Would have needed to sacrifice too many Model Ys to ramp the Semis, or accept higher cost Semis due to low production volume.
- 2020-2022 microchip shortages globally complicated adding any new lines
- 2022-2023 Cell supply for Tesla is increasing by hundreds of GWh / year, far more able to support a Semi ramp

Then, to me, the real money shot:
- Tesla needed a scalable, affordable charging solution to support the big (50,000 unit/yr) Semi ramp. This was finally provided when Lathrop came online in 2022. Tesla may see a major connection between Megapack sales and Semi sales due to the massive power requirements of charging the Semis. Building a dedicated substation to charge Semis is expensive, so sticking with a cheaper grid connection and buffering with a Megapack can save customers more.

So the sales pitch becomes "Buy our Semi. Cheaper by far to operate. Buy our Megapack - cheaper to recharge with."

I will admit I did not think a lot about that connection. I admit to being rather excited about the possibilities of it now. Parallel massive scaling of Semis and Megapacks is exceedingly bullish.

 

[JupiterMan]

I think its going to be very hard for Tesla to talk up HW4 without is becoming implicit that HW3 is infgerior, and very likely not capable of full FSD, or even FSD in circumstances outside of wholemars's daily commute...

so far Tesla have said (quite recently) that HW3 will be capable of FSD, and about 200%-300% better than a human, with HW4 being about double that again.

the more likely scenario in my mind is that it will come down to regulators and the consequences should HW3 not meet their needs but HW4 would.

The main regulatory aspect here I think is redundancy. HW3 has traded redundancy for capability, which may mean full unsupervised driving will never be on the cards, whereas HW4 has restored that redundancy so might be fine in these aspects.

From a shareholder risk perspective, revenue has only so far been recognised on what has been delivered, so should there be any refunds, they would only hurt the cash side and not the financials. On the other hand, the small print has always been "subject to regulatory approval" so Tesla may be fine, even if there are disgruntled customers - I think should that happen then the ability to pass the FSD functionality/licence to a new HW4 Tesla might retain some customer satisfaction here.

Going forward, with rate of production increase, and assuming HW4 becomes common across all models, then by the end of 2024 there will be more HW4 on the roads than HW3 anyhow, so any potential downside risks and liabilities diminish significantly with time. Indeed should HW4 accelerate the FSD journey and make RoboTaxis happen soon, then there is only upside in my view.

 

[SOULPEDL]

HW3... very likely not capable of full FSD

Conclusion so soon?

I believe both FSD versions will succeed; newer version will always be safer.

I have a 486 computer upstairs that still runs Windows. That's where HW4 is at (HW3 is the 386). In other words, it's only the beginning IMO, and drivers are getting even more dangerous with such little practice now, fully distracted, lack of focus. The safety and insurance data will be self correcting.

Now where their team focuses is a valid concern... maybe it can spit out both versions, who knows. If their teams really do run Agile method, ignoring HW3 has a potentially large financial penalty. A Tesla team should naturally form to add that Value to the company. And from a Tesla insurance standpoint, it absolutely has value there as well.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Tesla beats BMW as top luxury brand in U.S. for first time

It’s now official… sort of. Tesla has now passed BMW as the top luxury brand in the U.S., according to new car registration data compiled by Experian in partnership with Automotive News.

finance.yahoo.com

Sorry BMW

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Tesla beats BMW as top luxury brand in U.S. for first time

It’s now official… sort of. Tesla has now passed BMW as the top luxury brand in the U.S., according to new car registration data compiled by Experian in partnership with Automotive News.

finance.yahoo.com

Sorry BMW

But...BMW has massive....