Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

Love it or hate it, the FED needs to rethink raising rates this fast again in the future. Many have lost billions in treasury bonds due to the spike in rates, even resulting in the collapse of some banks as we are witnessing right now. Slow clap for the feds...

The other side will argue this is necessary to get price stability and that inflation out of control will be far worse than the pain -- the necessary pain, which the Fed knows and has acknowledged -- that will occur as a result of the QT.

Rate hikes so far have been easy, we've barely started to see the effects to date. The Fed's role is to stay the course and ensure the job is done even when things become difficult and they have people screaming at them to stop.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Love it or hate it, the FED needs to rethink raising rates this fast again in the future. Many have lost billions in treasury bonds due to the spike in rates, even resulting in the collapse of some banks as we are witnessing right now. Slow clap for the feds...

CNBC was showing Tue/Wed/Thurs confidence levels of a 50 point hike and it was about 25%/70%/30% likely due to this banking issue. Many talking that the Fed may need to consider 25 next round.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The other side will argue this is necessary to get price stability and that inflation out of control will be far worse than the pain -- the necessary pain, which the Fed knows and has acknowledged -- that will occur as a result of the QT.

Rate hikes so far have been easy, we've barely started to see the effects to date. The Fed's role is to stay the course and ensure the job is done even when things become difficult and they have people screaming at them to stop.

But a soft landing requires ongoing adjustment due to delays in the feedback system. The bank issue is immediate data vs projected 6 mos out. I think they will listen, but all bets are off still.

 

[Tiger]

What is this going to end up in?

 

[Artful Dodger]

No but (today I learned) apparently my Startup had 3/4 of their money in it!

FDIC plans to pay SVB depositors after bank fails | CNBC Television (1 hr ago)

 

[AndrewZ]

But a soft landing requires ongoing adjustment due to delays in the feedback system. The bank issue is immediate data vs projected 6 mos out. I think they will listen, but all bets are off still.

It sounds like this bank was engaged in some particularly risky stuff and bad structure/strategy, SVB was pretty involved in pushing SPACs during the pandemic and IMO those were little better than NFTs and crypto -- all three were fed by the money printing and QE/zero interest rates and is part of what needs to unwind here.

But stuff like this is no doubt why people and the broader market so desperately hoped rate cuts were coming this year and refused to believe they weren't coming. This won't be easy, it'll be painful and the market will likely continue being overly optimistic.

 

[WattsHappening]

Another case of Teslas saving lives. Like the drive-off-cliff photos, it's hard to comprehend that both passengers are expected to bo ok. Loved this comment:

Otis
@Ojames600
·
2h
Replying to
@SMCSheriff
If you must drive in the storm, deputies are here for you, day or night. Also drive a TESLA, its can survive being driven off a Cliff or being smash by a tree

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634066083115335682

 

[dl003]

he gives me another perspective that seems to be valid. And often helps me feel more comfortable with the market because I am less educated....(i think?)
As to he helps me lose or make money.... he helps me feel better about holding most of the time the stock is going down.

His perspective is that inflation is ending and we're going back to happy days and people shouting recession are fear mongering idiots. What I know is CPI is spiking back up, stocks keep getting trashed and the Fed is raising rates higher and longer. I urge people to be wary of these "feel good / everything is fine" personalities. I don't need anyone to tell me to hold my TSLA and weather the storm. He just seems to be doing more harms than goods. His words are empty. Tell me whether stocks are going up or down next week. He won't. If you need to add to your echo chamber, he'll be a nice addition. If someone held TSLA from 300 to 175 according to him, they'd have lost 40%. I held the stock myself but I don't go out of my way to tell people "Everything is fine. Hold your stock no matter what. They're all idiots."

 

[GSP]

I don't think LIDAR is all that different in purpose from the new High-resolution radar, which is now being touted as a cheaper supplement to reduce LIDAR sensors or even a replacement for LIDAR altogether.

You have someone like Ross Gerber who notices this and questions if it's not basically the same thing, and people hit out with "come on Ross, everyone knows LIDAR uses lasers!" Does it matter if it uses lasers or electromagnetic waves? It can shoot out tiny little cake donuts and track whether they hit something, but the end goal would be the same: object detection beyond vision-only, sensor fusion for conditions and situations cameras alone cannot handle, and further risk mitigation.

Note that light is an electromagnetic wave. The only difference between LIDAR (lasar) and RADAR is the frequency of the EM radiation. However your point is still valid, I am just nit-picking.

GSP

 

[JRP3]

Love it or hate it, the FED needs to rethink raising rates this fast again in the future. Many have lost billions in treasury bonds due to the spike in rates, even resulting in the collapse of some banks as we are witnessing right now. Slow clap for the feds...

The FED seems to want to force a recession that wouldn't occur on it's own.

 

[trayloader]

Off topic
so they removed, imo the best color, and replaced it with a dated burgundy ford Taurus color. Not sure that’s gonna stimulate sales.

You are wrong. It’s much fresher than what you imagine. Candy blood red metallic. A bold move at the right time. Add rear steering and a 22KW AC charger and you have a winner!

 

[betstarship]

"The bank partnered with nearly half of all venture-backed tech and health care companies in the United States, many of which pulled deposits out of the bank."

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-bank/index.html

 

[betstarship]

More:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634256508254027776

 

[SOULPEDL]

Another case of Teslas saving lives. Like the drive-off-cliff photos, it's hard to comprehend that both passengers are expected to bo ok. Loved this comment:

Otis
@Ojames600
·
2h
Replying to
@SMCSheriff
If you must drive in the storm, deputies are here for you, day or night. Also drive a TESLA, its can survive being driven off a Cliff or being smash by a tree

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634066083115335682

Az weather forecast here. We get their weather, now.

 

[betstarship]

Further, in real time:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634274092454150144

 

[Gigapress]

Informative CyberTruck thread, some tidbits: dual and tri-motor, no single or quad motor. 5% size reduction. In-house accessory team/manufacturing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634225807282540545

This is pretty informative. More new info from Tesla about the Cybertruck than I think we've heard in years.

I liked the accompanying video which has the same info as the Twitter thread and more commentary and details. It's a half hour but pretty easy to listen to at faster speeds.

Unfortunately for @larmor, it's looking less and less likely that a million reservations will be cancelled.

Also unfortunately, Tesla staff at the event apparently did not disclose whether the in-house accessories team is working on ornamental bull horns. If this is not a standard option, then demand in Texas may suffer as customers will be forced to resort to third-party aftermarket options.

 

[dm28997]

This is pretty informative. More new info from Tesla about the Cybertruck than I think we've heard in years.

I liked the accompanying video which has the same info as the Twitter thread and more commentary and details. It's a half hour but pretty easy to listen to at faster speeds.

Unfortunately for @larmor, it's looking less and less likely that a million reservations will be cancelled.

Also unfortunately, Tesla staff at the event apparently did not disclose whether the in-house accessories team is working on ornamental bull horns. If this is not a standard option, then demand in Texas may suffer as customers will be forced to resort to third-party aftermarket options.

I was checking out this Airstream caravel as it can use solar, inverters, internet and electronic hitch. It runs about 80k. Tesla might do well to collaborate or form a partnership with Airstream. Imagine having your Airstream solar charge your Cybertruck. Lots of Baby boomers might want to hit the road and have the currency to afford it. Although I like a camper on the Cybertruck this 16 footer detaches and leaves the Cybertruck free for other chores.

Caravel | Travel Trailers | Airstream

The Caravel line includes some of our most lightweight travel trailers that you can tow with an SUV. Learn more about what the Caravel has to offer.

www.airstream.com

 

[Singuy]

The other side will argue this is necessary to get price stability and that inflation out of control will be far worse than the pain -- the necessary pain, which the Fed knows and has acknowledged -- that will occur as a result of the QT.

Rate hikes so far have been easy, we've barely started to see the effects to date. The Fed's role is to stay the course and ensure the job is done even when things become difficult and they have people screaming at them to stop.

The argument that increasing rate to destroy demand to tame inflation is hilariously bad and I don't even know why they teach this stuff.

Yes, when there's a supply and demand imbalance you either adjust demand or supply. Trying to purposely destroy demand is the most idiotic way to tame inflation as it is purposely destroying wealth. Work to increase supply is the right answer and should always be the right answer. Either you increase supply or leave the economy alone and it'll eventually sort itself out in the world of globalization. Someone will eventually figure out how to take advantage of demand that cannot be met because who doesn't want to make money? However purposely destroying demand in which no one wins besides declaring a win on inflation(because everyone is out of a job and are on the streets eating out of trash cans) is the dumbest win I can think of.

 

[keydiver]

Nothing ground breaking in that article but there are some informative info-graphs on that page:

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I do have a little problem with their data that says it costs $13.44 to charge a Tesla Model Y for 100 miles of range. My Model Y Dual Motor uses .245 kWh per mile, so 24.5 kWh for 100 miles. That works out to 55 cents per mile @ $13.44! Does anyone charge that much, or are they using some "worst case" example from California? The highest I have ever paid was 35 cents in Jacksonville. And, of course, their figure for home charging works out to about 18 cents per kWh, far above the national average. Maybe the whole article is based on California costs.

 

[generalenthu]

The argument that increasing rate to destroy demand to tame inflation is hilariously bad and I don't even know why they teach this stuff.

Yes, when there's a supply and demand imbalance you either adjust demand or supply. Trying to purposely destroy demand is the most idiotic way to tame inflation as it is purposely destroying wealth. Work to increase supply is the right answer and should always be the right answer. Either you increase supply or leave the economy alone and it'll eventually sort itself out in the world of globalization. Someone will eventually figure out how to take advantage of demand that cannot be met because who doesn't want to make money? However purposely destroying demand in which no one wins besides declaring a win on inflation(because everyone is out of a job and are on the streets eating out of trash cans) is the dumbest win I can think of.

I normally like your arguments but disagree here.

The supply shortage here is really of people as US is a service economy. So many retail oriented businesses have been unable to staff their operations because there is an excess demand and all the stimulus money has left a portion of the population reluctant to work.

Ideally the solution is increased immigration but there is no appetite for it.

Lacking the immigration lever or the fiscal prudence lever, there is undue weight on monetary policy lever. It is minimally effective and is a double edged sword (some evidence that the 100s of billions in additional interest being paid out is actually stimulative)

And unfortunately we can't increase productivity fast enough to get ourselves out of this mess. So interest rates it is