Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skipdd]

Agreed. He tends to pop in and out. Others like @Discoducky seem to be gone entirely.

Speaking of @Discoducky , he said he was moving just to the blue bird. Do you happen to know his handle there? I prefer to get the balance of my info here as blue bird is way too noisy, but I would still be interested to see his thoughts on things.

 

[scaesare]

I disagree with this distinction. Coal can’t supply energy on its own any more than a battery pack supplying stored energy can. All that carbon had to live, eat, die, get compressed, etc. to ”load up” and store the energy. Then it can be used. We need to consider both the storing and the using. Just because we are talking about producing from something that wasn’t stored millions of years ago does not mean it’s a different process. Just a different time scale, or more human ingenuity required (for flywheels and battery packs for instance) than gravity and wind.

Well conservation of energy says all energy is constant, therefore it's all simply stored or moved around.

For this case though, I specifically said "other same-energy source supplying it first". So for the purposes of utility discussion:

Electrical "Energy Generation" (sources):

Nuclear: Uranium
Coal: Sequestered carbon
Wind: Moving atmosphoerc gas momentum
Solar: Solar Photos


Energy Storage (using excess energy generated from above):

Pumped Hydro: Electrically driven pumps
Batteries: Electrically charged batteries
Gravity: Electrically raised mass
Flywheels: Enterically spun rotating mass


So in the context of utilities "Generation" is usually some other fuel generating the electricity. "Storage" is using excess generated electrical energy to convert in to some medium that that can then extract that energy back out and convert it back in to electricity.

Interestingly rechargeable batteries are storage (they have to be charged before first use), whereas alkaline (and other such) batteries could be considered short term sources.

 

[ShareLofty]

Hmmmm, I just added 1 + 1 and got 2...
@The Accountant .. is a real accountant... so it is tax season .
Maybe lots of work this time of year. Goes quiet beginning of February... best guess April 19th maybe a return to the forum?

He was never really a “tax” guy. He always deferred to the guy from Montreal. StLopes or something.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing: Aruba

Stranded Monday on Aruba, fly out 23d. Bummer, but have tan to prove we snorkeled.

Todays action was FSD uploaded Monday.
Moody Blues upgrade.
Early indications of top end deliverit’s.

Best ever vacation ~ TSLA finishing above when I left.

Cheers, maybe another vacation in December.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Forward Observing: Aruba

Stranded Monday on Aruba, fly out 23d. Bummer, but have tan to prove we snorkeled.

Todays action was FSD uploaded Monday.
Moody Blues upgrade.
Early indications of top end deliverit’s.

Best ever vacation ~ TSLA finishing above when I left.

Cheers, maybe another vacation in December.

Permanent one for me when $TSLA finally hits $500

 

[Zero CO2]

Permanent one for me when $TSLA finally hits $500

hitting $500 and staying there are 2 different outcomes ... we hit $400 in Jan 2022 and by Jan 2023 we hit $103
I for one am glad i did not pack it in at $400 ... as last year would have been quite a stress filled fall of almost $300/share

but i have the same target .... $500

 

[M|S|M MYP]

hitting $500 and staying there are 2 different outcomes ... we hit $400 in Jan 2022 and by Jan 2023 we hit $103
I for one am glad i did not pack it in at $400 ... as last year would have been quite a stress filled fall of almost $300/share

but i have the same target .... $500

For me, hitting $500 means the mortgage gets paid off by selling 800 shares, i will still have a hefty amount left but that would be a pretty much FU moment at my consulting gigs if i did not want to carry on

 

[Cosmacelf]

No longer just hitting a few major destinations. TBC basically giving LAV two road systems. Everyone else drives on the surface and takes 15-20 minutes to get anywhere. TBC gets to most major locations in 5 minutes or less for a couple bucks. Obliterates and surface transportation. Likely the monorail as well.

Going to get increasingly difficult for cities to resist this. Big thing missing here is a way for locals to get to/ from work. This is all commercial endpoints. Leaves locals fighting crappy surface traffic. I guess that's a fundamental problem with low-density housing.

I wonder if those lines are going to be bidirectional or one way?

 

[MC3OZ]

I wonder if those lines are going to be bidirectional or one way?

I posted a link to a video here:- Is the Boring Company even active any more?

That shows an overall map and some plans, the plans have one tunnel for the section but there was talk of 2.

The map seems to show a mixture of dual tunnels, and single tunnel loops.

The map is interesting..

 

[Prunesquallor]

A lot of voices have gone quiet.

I’m still here, in case you wondered where the witty repartee had gone.

Seriously - spent some time diving in the Caribbean and am happily building a bike for my wife. Went days without checking the SP.

 

[Tommy O]

Went days without checking the SP.

Didn't know that was something a human could do...

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638284068285554693

Now just need a FSD people mover to finish the sale.

 

[Unpilot]

Well conservation of energy says all energy is constant, therefore it's all simply stored or moved around.

For this case though, I specifically said "other same-energy source supplying it first". So for the purposes of utility discussion:

Electrical "Energy Generation" (sources):

Nuclear: Uranium
Coal: Sequestered carbon
Wind: Moving atmosphoerc gas momentum
Solar: Solar Photos


Energy Storage (using excess energy generated from above):

Pumped Hydro: Electrically driven pumps
Batteries: Electrically charged batteries
Gravity: Electrically raised mass
Flywheels: Enterically spun rotating mass


So in the context of utilities "Generation" is usually some other fuel generating the electricity. "Storage" is using excess generated electrical energy to convert in to some medium that that can then extract that energy back out and convert it back in to electricity.

Interestingly rechargeable batteries are storage (they have to be charged before first use), whereas alkaline (and other such) batteries could be considered short term sources.

In other words...it's all the sun.

 

[Ogre]

I wonder if those lines are going to be bidirectional or one way?

I would hope a mix. A big single direction circle where it’s possible. Bi directions when not.

 

[Bet TSLA]

No. This has the potential to turn into a wide release, but it isn't one yet. At this point they will either find no serious problems and proceed to a wide release; or they will find some thing(s) they have to fix and put out 11.3.3 (hence no wide release yet, but maybe soon); or they will find serious problems and back off the whole thing.

You'll know that 11.3.2 is a wide release when you see >1000 newly pending installations on TeslaFi, probably >2000. Right now it's just a tentative push out to 10% of the possible audience, and 1/3 of them haven't installed it yet, and there's been no further action for the past 21 hours. By tomorrow morning (maybe sooner) we'll know which way this is going.

Remember, they've been delaying this for months (remember Elon saying wide release before Thanksgiving, after its "release" on 11/11/2022?). They won't release it now with serious problems.

Looks like I guessed wrong on the timing. We still don't know which way this is going, although it's looking a lot more like we'll have to wait for 11.3.3. There's been no significant activity at TeslaFi on 11.3.2; just a slow trickle of installations on vehicles where it was already pending (45 installed today, with 122 still pending).

If you want to see what a wide release actually looks like, check out 2023.6.8 on TeslaFi. It went wide late yesterday and there were over 1700 installs so far today with another 2500+ pending. The latest and bestest. Another guess -- when we see 11.3.3 it will be based on this version rather than the current 2022.45.

 

[Singuy]

Now just need a FSD people mover to finish the sale.

Elon probably want a human driver to help sell cars.

 

[Ogre]

What if…

Morris Electric Van

 

[Gigapress]

"Experts" have been doubtful about many things SpaceX and Tesla says they're going to do. Then they do these things they said they'll do.

That article, while first starting off with a line about how impossible Tesla’s claim is, then concludes saying that a company will have a product for this in 2025. So, a big nothingburger, Tesla’s claim is true within 2 years from a best estimate. Sheesh.

My takeaway from the IEEE article about Tesla’s new permanent magnet motor is that whatever Tesla has done is remarkable and may represent a major step forward in magnet design that may be very difficult for others to replicate and the analysis from Munro may have some surprises for us. It seemed to me the experts quoted by IEEE weren’t saying Tesla’s claims were necessarily impossible, but rather that they don’t understand how Tesla’s motor will work because current research paths don’t indicate any potential ways to do this without rare earths. Scientists are supposed to be skeptical of extraordinary claims presented without any evidence. It’s their job. Right now the only evidence we have is Tesla’s general credibility earned from a track record of past achievements.

I have only a basic understanding of permanent magnets, so I don’t know, but I will note for those who aren’t aware that IEEE is the world’s primary professional association for electrical engineering. IEEE is not an advertisement-funded media company and has never exhibited any negative bias or sensationalism towards Tesla that I’m aware of. IEEE Spectrum is an industry publication for electrical engineers who want to keep up with developments in the industry.

 

[Tommy O]

My takeaway from the IEEE article about Tesla’s new permanent magnet motor is that whatever Tesla has done is remarkable and may represent a major step forward in magnet design that may be very difficult for others to replicate and the analysis from Munro may have some surprises for us. It seemed to me the experts quoted by IEEE weren’t saying Tesla’s claims were necessarily impossible, but rather that they don’t understand how Tesla’s motor will work because current research paths don’t indicate any potential ways to do this without rare earths. Scientists are supposed to be skeptical of extraordinary claims presented without any evidence. It’s their job. Right now the only evidence we have is Tesla’s general credibility earned from a track record of past achievements.

I have only a basic understanding of permanent magnets, so I don’t know, but I will note for those who aren’t aware that IEEE is the world’s primary professional association for electrical engineering. IEEE is not an advertisement-funded media company and has never exhibited any negative bias or sensationalism towards Tesla that I’m aware of. IEEE Spectrum is an industry publication for electrical engineers who want to keep up with developments in the industry.

Do note that campbell talked about how they designed e-mag sim software...before he revealed no rare-earths in their new motors.

 

[Ogre]

My takeaway from the IEEE article about Tesla’s new permanent magnet motor is that whatever Tesla has done is remarkable and may represent a major step forward in magnet design that may be very difficult for others to replicate and the analysis from Munro may have some surprises for us. It seemed to me the experts quoted by IEEE weren’t saying Tesla’s claims were necessarily impossible, but rather that they don’t understand how Tesla’s motor will work because current research paths don’t indicate any potential ways to do this without rare earths. Scientists are supposed to be skeptical of extraordinary claims presented without any evidence. It’s their job. Right now the only evidence we have is Tesla’s general credibility earned from a track record of past achievements.

I have only a basic understanding of permanent magnets, so I don’t know, but I will note for those who aren’t aware that IEEE is the world’s primary professional association for electrical engineering. IEEE is not an advertisement-funded media company and has never exhibited any negative bias or sensationalism towards Tesla that I’m aware of. IEEE Spectrum is an industry publication for electrical engineers who want to keep up with developments in the industry.

Investors should be skeptical as well!

I wasn’t super clear on when these new rare-earth free motors would be coming so might be like the battery chemistry improvements from investors day: “next year”.