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These are not tooling jobs. These are “get trucks out the door” jobs.

What is the step that comes after tooling in Teslas ramp ups? “Pre-production”? I think we’re going to see that soon.

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Look, I'm not making any allegations here, but if I were a company with a crumbling growth narrative and my stock price had been pummeled by 70% in the last few quarters and I had a vaporware concept car that I desperately wanted investors to believe was coming out soon, posting a bunch of job openings for producing the car is *exactly* what I'd do to try to trick the market. Do we know anyone who has actually gotten hired for these roles? No? That's what I thought.
 
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Look, I'm not making any allegations here, but if I were a company that had its stock pummeled by 70% in the last few quarters and I had a vaporware concept car that I desperately wanted investors to believe was coming out soon, posting a bunch of job opening for producing the car is *exactly* what I'd do to try to trick the market. Do we know anyone who has actually gotten hired for these roles? No? That's what I thought.
Optimus 1, 2 and 3 posted on Twitter that they are no longer getting unemployment benefits. Does that count?
 
Look, I'm not making any allegations here, but if I were a company that had its stock pummeled by 70% in the last few quarters and I had a vaporware concept car that I desperately wanted investors to believe was coming out soon, posting a bunch of job opening for producing the car is *exactly* what I'd do to try to trick the market. Do we know anyone who has actually gotten hired for these roles? No? That's what I thought.
Had to look who posted this lol
 
They're doing so because the profits are similar but they get a lot smoother delivery process going on

Except profits are not expected to be similar. Wallstreet things profits are going to drop 16% over last quarter. Where are people getting profits will be similar?

Now please don't repeat your arguments without backing it up with facts, not speculation.

Just read the last page of this thread: Near-future quarterly financial projections.

That thread somes up as 1) Troy providing emperical data for why ASP will drop as much as he things vs 2) "Zach said so"

Except, "Zach said so" is not a good point to hang your hat on - Zach said ASP won't go below 47k and gross margins stay above 20%.

Neiither of those is "similar profits". Those are both lower than Q4. Gross margins obviously includes any cost reductions.

Basically all evidence is signalling lower profits this quarter, and everyone outside of this thread seems aware of that. Zach himself is signaling as such.

There really shouldn't be any surprise if EPS comes in at under $0.9. Only wildcards will bump it up higher.
 
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Anyone think this chart is wild? From a market standpoint, I just don't see how people are able to keep up these prices as disasters continue to hit...unless youre in a municipality or geographic region with sustainable infrastructure and easy to rebuild / fix home. It's a little like Elysium 😅.



Not adjusted for inflation though? Seems this would be a much more useful chart:


From 2000 back to...basically ever (Dec 31, 1889) the index of home prices relative to inflation in the US remained in a very narrow range.

Since 2000? Well, briefly in 2011-2012 it barely skimmed the absolute TOP of the 110 years before 2010... but otherwise it's been... significantly higher.
 
Lucid has a serious problem, and I'm not sure they are able to fix it given the past few quarters they've had.
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Rawlinson's smooth accent can't help this dumpster fire anymore. Saudi's will have no choice but to buy them out.
 
1f921.png
Rawlinson's smooth accent can't help this dumpster fire anymore. Saudi's will have no choice but to buy them out.
Their biggest issues are too numerous to list on this thread, but concur with your analysis . . . . I wonder if the AZ factory might be sold off in a BK, or just moved to Saudi Arabia--could be an excellent GigaArizona for Tesla, especially with whatever incentives might be offered!
 
Their biggest issues are too numerous to list on this thread, but concur with your analysis . . . . I wonder if the AZ factory might be sold off in a BK, or just moved to Saudi Arabia--could be an excellent GigaArizona for Tesla, especially with whatever incentives might be offered!
1681429609984.png

Headlines for Lucid when you look up their stock ticker on Yahoo Finance, no mention of:

1681429671917.png


Gotta search deep for that, shouldn't that be the first headline?? 🥴 🥴 🥴 🥴
 
FWIW, I hope Elon wouldn't discuss anything material to TSLA behind a paywall, but he's got his own subscription now. Anyone want to take one for the team and report back here if he tweets anything interesting?
I'll subscribe once we are back above $333.33.

Sawyer's already got yer back:


FtoQX0SWIAAZdUv


Recommend in the future folks here tag any such tweets as fols:

#ElonSubscriptionContent #ThisAndThat
 
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B. Ferguson staked out Lathrop for 6 days to track Megapack production.
58 units including shipped and finish goods growth, so 10-11 a day


so….10-11 a day = 900-1000 a quarter run rate @ $2 million+ each (plus installation etc). $2 Billion+ quarterly revenue run rate already (and presumably increasing).

Energy revenue is going to surprise some people next week
 
Interesting that their hasn't been a Voodoo Doll sighting today.
Seems like a few rules of the thread have been broken concerning "demand"....
Is that speak allowed again without fear of a needle 🪡 or a pair of scissors ✂️?

So, I was mostly emotionally benign about the last demand dude, thus giving him an opportunity to self-moderate before serious doll damage. This latest one’s doll ended up -

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Tesla today doesn’t have a backlog anywhere. Pretty much anyone can order any model and get it in 2 weeks. In mid 2022, the backlog was as high as 9 months. Demand has gone down dramatically (some of this is due to macros) and that’s why Tesla has resorted to deep price cuts to generate demand and also not increase production much (China Q1’23 production is less than Q4’22 production). If you just annualize Q4’22 production of 440K, that’s 1.76M or just about what Tesla guided to (1.8M)…so that’s almost close to zero total production increase. The issue here is not production. The issue here is demand. If there was demand, Tesla would have increased prices or at least not decrease by 20% (and there will be more price cuts this quarter and next in the US and Europe). In China, they already don’t make any margin, and sell the Model 3 RWD for a net loss, so probably no more price cuts there.
6 month wait in Thailand. I talked with a rep in Bangkok yesterday. So there goes your "anywhere" argument.
 
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I've read comments that the refresh model 3 looks like a frog.

I think someone said that ages ago.

I googled "tesla model 3 frog".

Literally first result: Model 3 Looks Like a Frog From the Front, and a Mini X from the Back

Oh it was me.

Hmmpf:

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@ZeApelido, I'll raise you your
Screen Shot 2023-04-13 at 7.43.31 PM.png

and call with
Screen Shot 2023-04-13 at 7.33.12 PM.png

I always thought the front looked a bit alienating.
Screen Shot 2023-04-13 at 7.34.06 PM.png

The slimline headlights & continuous front bumper line is a welcome improvement,
makes for a more aggressive, masculine look.
Screen Shot 2023-04-13 at 7.51.40 PM.png


But this is the investment thread, so here goes:
In October 2012, I could have bought a Model S for $49,000 Canadian (That is $36,748 USD today). Yes, it was the 40kWh version good for 140 miles (225 kms), (could unlock another 50% of battery pack via paid OTA update), however it was pure gold and to this day I regret going down for the long sleep and waiting for the more economical Model 3, purchased in June 2018 (for $67,000 CAD, ugh.). Looking at Tesla's web site just now, even after price reductions, the Model S starts at $116,990 CAD. Sure it has 100kWh battery, all wheel drive, faster, more bells and whistles, but the original Model S would have suited me fine and still looks absolutely gorgeous, yes, more gorgeous than the Model 3.
Screen Shot 2023-04-13 at 8.23.02 PM.png

So, what have I learned:

Country exchange rates have real impact. My great deal that I passed on in 2012 was when the CAD was worth 10% more than the USD, not 30% less. As the USD loses some of its recent shine, this is a positive for Tesla or any company that exports products outside of US.

Model 3 and Y are likely to fetch higher pricing in the future once the Model 2 (Next Gen) comes out. These recent price cuts are only temporary.

The Model 2 (Next Generation) will not simply be a rehash of the Model 3 or Y, simply making the car smaller from its predecessor. This (image below) is not a 10 million/annum production car.
Screen Shot 2023-03-27 at 8.21.24 PM.png


It will more likely be a radical design, new processes and manufacturing with new technology suitable for mass production of an enormous scale. Something like....
Screen Shot 2023-04-04 at 4.54.07 PM.png

This will still fetch a premium as it will be the quickest, safest, most technologically advanced and efficient car of its classification by a wide margin.

Which is why Tesla is taking the time to get Cybertruck right, first out of the gate. They can use the methodology, similar to or perhaps again completely out of the box thinking like with the Cybertruck that was alien to us....er, ah, oh, to create a true global car for the masses. Only Tesla.
 
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