Well, astronaut and cosmonaut both mean ‘star traveller’, so have a word with them first.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Well if we’re going to be pedantic, I’d prefer they drive on Mars not in Mars.
Because I don’t think they will have cars in the tunnels and caves folks live in.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Tough, but not impossible. Toyota has an advantage over other ICEV manufacturers in that they've been doing strong hybrid for a long time, plus plug-in hybrids that have heat pumps. They produced 2.7M hybrids, PHEVs and BEVs in 2022.
So they're already doing, successfully, at volume:
- motors
- inverters
- electric AWD
- AC charging (limited to PHEVs)
- heat pumps (limited to PHEVs)
- batteries
That should at least give them a faster track to some of the changes required.
But if they want to win back EV fans, they need to stop the marketing BS and make their EVs and PHEVs for people who want an EV. Their regen is relatively weak, for example.
PS They have a bZ4X update due in June, free, although requires a trip to the dealer that will supposedly: make the DCFC throttle much less, open up a higher percentage of the pack, improve the AWD efficiency, show the percentage of battery remaining (seriously), and some other improvements.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Low regen returns
OMG. That's one of my showstoppers.
If they add in easy optional dumb cruise mode I'd be beginning discussions with my wife about at least test driving a Y or 3.
They can even call the mode it Dumb Cruise for Dumb People if they want.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Funny how many of the same people who talk about how Musk's reputation damages Tesla suddenly think Musk's reputation is irrelevant when Musk is center stage with massively positive news.
I'm just one of those idiots who understands that some kids getting excited at a SpaceX rocket launch has nothing to do with the real damage Elon has also done to the Tesla brand. Those kids aren't buying Tesla's and, news flash, younger people tend to be more "awake" than older, so in 15 years or so of sh;t posting by Elon when they might want to buy a vehicle that launch might be long forgotten. Or not, who knows, maybe by then Elon will have turned things around, but a rocket launch doesn't doesn't erase his other actions.
FSDtester#1
"Circle Jerk Old Guard" per cyborgLIS
Without Elon, there wouldn't be a TMC, a place for us discuss his unbelievable contributions to the world. That seems like real damage to society.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Funny how many of the same people who talk about how Musk's reputation damages Tesla suddenly think Musk's reputation is irrelevant when Musk is center stage with massively positive news.
In some circles it is considered hippy critical to take such an opportunity, regardless of any previous stance it may contradict.
So, it now would seem that Elon can be cross-associated between his companies if doing so supports the narrative, but will not be when it doesn't. Maybe folks who subscribe to such a perspective feel they musk take every opportunity to demonstrate their ability to show how hippy critical they can be.
Anything Elon is involved in can benefit to some degree from the success of the other things he is involved in.
Not to mention our mental health states!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Maybe, but that is irrelevant. It's actually possible to acknowledge that not everything he has done is good or has been positive for the brand. That's simple reality.
Optimeer
Member
Drew Baglino told us during the Q1 Conf. Call that Lathrop is being built in phases, with only phase 1 in production ATM. So it's more likely at about 60-80% ramped in phase 1. I think Drew also mentioned that they will build phase 2 before the end of Q4.
This seems to be the Tesla build method now: build two of everything, and get the 1st one up and running to help pay for the build out of the 2nd one. It's highly capital efficient, and accelerates ROIC. That's how they built Mudel Y in Giga Shanghai.
Beginning of April, there was a guy sitting a few days in in his car in front of the Lathrop factory and he said that they produce 10-11 Megapacks per day, on 7 days per Weeks (TMC Post 7552116).
13 weeks/quarter x 7 days/week x 10.5 Megapacks/day x 3.9 MWh/Megapack = 3.7 GWh/quarter.
In Q1 Tesla deployed almost 3.9 GWh and I would say at least 3 GWh are Megapacks from the Lathrop factory and the rest are probably Powerwalls.
For me it looks like that Lathrop phase 1 is already running very steadily since months and I expect only little improvement for Q2 and even for Q3 regarding production output (margins and revenues could improve a bit more).
On the bright side it looks like Tesla now has a factory design they can copy paste all over the world
- Lathrop phase 2 will ramp in Q4 and Q1 2024
- Shanghai phase 1 will ramp in Q2-Q4 2024
- Shanghai phase 2 will ramp in Q4 2024 - Q1 2025
- Next site phase 1 will ramp in Q4 2024 - Q2 2025
- ..
something like that. Then we need to keep in mind that also the supplier need to ramp their factories.
Regarding the margin aspiration of 25 %: Probably there is a lag until the money is transferred from the customer to Tesla at the end of the project, so we potentially didn’t see the steep ramp last quarter fully reflected in the earnings report. Maybe Tesla is scared that the selling prices will come down significantly over time with significantly increased supply. Also it is not given that purchase costs will go down considering the crazy demand which these products will have over the next years from Tesla and competitors.
A few lines about me personally.
I think the odds for another breakout of the share price in the next at least 6 months are quite low. Therefore I sold about 15 % of my shares yesterday and I now have a round amount of shares. I will not buy a Tesla car with this money since the Model Y is so wide that it is no more practical in Europe, and with no 7 seater option available I don’t see how I can justify buying such a big car. On the other hand the frunk of the model 3 is smaller than the one of my current car which is only 4.3 m long, so also not an attractive option for me personally.
FSDtester#1
"Circle Jerk Old Guard" per cyborgLIS
I wasn't referring to the myopic view of a brand. I was speaking to his contributions for the sustainability of our planet.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
What's so sad is you don't even realize how hypocritical you are being.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
There is a clause that prohibits that when one agrees to support "The One True Narrative"
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
How so? I've acknowledge both sides of his contributions.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Honestly, I couldn't figure out just how the brand supports the sustainability of our planet...
but, I bought one anyway.
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