Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Here's the same story, opposite Headline. They grabbed the last para regarding past rulings only.
The readers of this story won't believe a word I say, I say.
Taylor Swift knows it well, she just Shakes It Off. 🤷‍♂️
Doris Day knew it as well for some real music trivia.

 
Nice chart about global EV sales from Tesla Impact Report.
1682368479052.png
 
Here's the same story, opposite Headline. They grabbed the last para regarding past rulings only.
The readers of this story won't believe a word I say, I say.
Taylor Swift knows it well, she just Shakes It Off. 🤷‍♂️
Doris Day knew it as well for some real music trivia.

It's usually not the article writer, but a copy editor who writes the headline. Too often editors misunderstand the content, and write a misleading headline. In this case it was completely opposite of what was being reported. For shame.
 
Last edited:
I wonder if Tesla ads would have a higher return than the industry average because Tesla vehicles are so differentiated from other offerings on the market.

I mean, if someone wants a truck there’s not much about an F-150 vs a Silverado 1500 that would be novel or surprising to present in an ad, but Tesla has lots of great unique features to present that most of the population doesn’t know about.

Advertising for Tesla at this point is fairly easy and inexpensive. For most other companies, when designing marketing tactics you need to know where in the marketing funnel your target audience is. For Tesla, it's all about the top of the funnel - generate Awareness. To your point, since there's no real competition, all Tesla needs to get across is the features of their products; no sob story, patriotism, or call to action needed. Furthermore, there's no complexity for dealership ad vs brand ad. They could potentially run the same campaigns across multiple target locations. Perhaps one campaign on the range and charging infrastructure, one campaign on cost of ownership including tax credits and price cuts, one on power and safety, one on the entertainment system, etc.

Their ads can be very streamlined, just like their production. When you streamline your ads, you can reach a larger audience and generate more sales for the same dollars spent. I would expect Tesla's ROAS to be at least twice as high as auto industry average, if not potentially 5-10 times as high, at least at the beginning. We just don't know if we don't spend.

The only caution I have is that without some sort of inventory build-up or density of stores, Tesla may not be able to take full advantage of an advertising campaign. Impulses are usually short-lived. If someone gets excited about a Tesla from an ad, they want to get their hands on one tomorrow. If there aren't enough units available for purchase or at least for a test drive, the excitement may fizzle out. Sometimes you do become a victim of your own success. It would be wise for Tesla to test the water before going all-in on ads.
 
Last edited:
Wtf. Uber only makes $31.8 billion a year and they are charging 2X what an autonomous taxi would charge so why would Tesla's ride hailing makes 5-10x this in 4 years?? Even if Tesla solved autonomy yesterday and is already deploying robotaxies today, it's not mathematically possible in the real world to hit 613 billion in total revenue for the next 4 years. You have to assume all the cars and public transportation had an explosion, or a massive EMP disabled all cars except Teslas for this to happen.

These kind of ridiculous models give ARKK zero credibility and I don't even know why it exist. Too much of this and people will start treating arkk like Cramer and just inverse everything they say. SARKK already exist and is doing better than ARKK that's for sure.
Gross bookings are $115bn - the $31bn is after they have paid the drivers. that doesn't solve the gap but does narrow it a bit. I'd assume taxis would be the first to be wiped out.
 
Impact Report New Info (Part 1)
To save you 200 pages of reading with a bunch of stuff we already know, here's everything I saw that was new:
  • Charging network 100% renewable now, achieved thru mix of on-site solar and annual renewables matching

  • Model S/X battery degradation after 200k miles (320k km) is 12% +/- 2%
    • As far as I can remember this is the first time we've gotten this data officially from Tesla instead of self-reported surveys
    • Newer vehicles are probably better

  • 30% YoY reduction of greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle in manufacturing + supply chain + sales/service/delivery

  • AI and IoT now being used to improve gigafactory energy usage, mainly for thermal management

  • 15% YoY reduction of water per vehicle manufactured
    • Giga Berlin eliminated quench tanks for castings and introduced cascade rinsing systems, among other improvements
    • Giga Texas will capture 25% of rain runoff and will use condensation from AC condensers instead of disposing as waste

  • Each generation of factory produces less solid waste per vehicle and recycling higher percentage of that waste

  • FSD Beta accident rate in 2022 was 5x less than US average
    • Tesla vehicles drove ~500M miles in 2022 on FSD Beta, so total accidents were ~155

  • Safety Score is already doing a decent job of assessing collision probability

  • Removing radar to use Tesla Vision "improved safety while simultaneously simplifying engineering by removing a noisy signal"
    • Better performance without radar in Euro NCAP pedestrian and urban crash scenarios, even at night

  • Solar + Megapack XL now starting to compete with coal generation even unsubsidized
    • Per Lazard April 2023 levelized cost of energy estimates
      • (Lazard is the leading industry cost estimator for the US)

  • Tesla Energy battery fires <0.001% failure rate

  • 1 billion Twitter post impressions in 2022 and 53% YoY follower growth
    • Presumably this isn't counting Elon's Tesla-related posts

1682367324260.png


1682367704370.png

1682368250071.png

1682368300994.png

1682368651523.png
1682368951317.png

1682369770945.png

1682369934591.png

1682370164758.png

1682370072262.png
 
Last edited:
Impact Report New Info (Part 1)
To save you 200 pages of reading with a bunch of stuff we already know, here's everything I saw that was new:
  • Charging network 100% renewable now, achieved thru mix of on-site solar and annual renewables matching

  • Model S/X battery degradation after 200k miles (320k km) is 12% +/- 2%
    • As far as I can remember this is the first time we've gotten this data officially from Tesla instead of self-reported surveys
    • Newer vehicles are probably better

  • 30% YoY reduction of greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle in manufacturing + supply chain + sales/service/delivery

  • AI and IoT now being used to improve gigafactory energy usage, mainly for thermal management

  • 15% YoY reduction of water per vehicle manufactured
    • Giga Berlin eliminated quench tanks for castings and introduced cascade rinsing systems, among other improvements
    • Giga Texas will capture 25% of rain runoff and will use condensation from AC condensers instead of disposing as waste

  • Each generation of factory produces less solid waste per vehicle and recycling higher percentage of that waste

  • FSD Beta accident rate in 2022 was 5x less than US average
    • Tesla vehicles drove ~500M miles in 2022 on FSD Beta, so total accidents were ~155

  • Safety Score is already doing a decent job of assessing collision probability

  • Removing radar to use Tesla Vision "improved safety while simultaneously simplifying engineering by removing a noisy signal"
    • Better performance without radar in Euro NCAP pedestrian and urban crash scenarios, even at night

  • Solar + Megapack XL now starting to compete with coal generation even unsubsidized
    • Per Lazard April 2023 levelized cost of energy estimates
      • (Lazard is the leading industry cost estimator for the US)

  • Tesla Energy battery fires <0.001% failure rate

  • 1 billion Twitter post impressions in 2022 and 53% YoY follower growth
    • Presumably this isn't counting Elon's Tesla-related posts

View attachment 931433

View attachment 931438
View attachment 931439
View attachment 931440
View attachment 931442 View attachment 931443
View attachment 931461
View attachment 931471
View attachment 931487
View attachment 931477

All that from a company downgraded on ESG . . . .

eyebrow.jpg
 
Advertising for Tesla at this point is fairly easy and inexpensive. For most other companies, when designing marketing tactics you need to know where in the marketing funnel your target audience is. For Tesla, it's all about the top of the funnel - generate Awareness. To your point, since there's no real competition, all Tesla needs to get across is the features of their products; no sob story, patriotism, or call to action needed. Furthermore, there's no complexity for dealership ad vs brand ad. They could potentially run the same campaigns across multiple target locations. Perhaps one campaign on the range and charging infrastructure, one campaign on cost of ownership including tax credits and price cuts, one on power and safety, one on the entertainment system, etc.

Their ads can be very streamlined, just like their production. When you streamline your ads, you can reach a larger audience and generate more sales for the same dollars spent. I would expect Tesla's ROAS to be at least twice as high as auto industry average, if not potentially 5-10 times as high, at least at the beginning. We just don't know if we don't spend.

The only caution I have is that without some sort of inventory build-up or density of stores, Tesla may not be able to take full advantage of an advertising campaign. Impulses are usually short-lived. If someone gets excited about a Tesla from an ad, they want to get their hands on one tomorrow. If there aren't enough units available for purchase or at least for a test drive, the excitement may fizzle out. Sometimes you do become a victim of your own success. It would be wise for Tesla to test the water before going all-in on ads.
TL;DR. There no point in advertising until there is a significant build up of inventory.
 
Canada Model Y RWD will come from China. I suggested this might be the case when I saw the RWD version was Canada bound. Berlin must be doing a good job filling European orders for them to do this.

 
  • Model S/X battery degradation after 200k miles (320k km) is 12% +/- 2%
    • As far as I can remember this is the first time we've gotten this data officially from Tesla instead of self-reported surveys
    • Newer vehicles are probably better
Sounds about right. My 2013 S85 had around 8% loss at 130,000 miles. That would put it at ~12.5% at 200k miles.
 
TL;DR. There no point in advertising until there is a significant build up of inventory.
I wouldn't go that far. To maximize ROAS, an inventory build-up would help a lot. However, there are other considerations. Given Tesla's direct to consumer business model, a significant build-up would not be wise since there isn't space to store too many units. Tesla could easily ship a new Tesla from a nearby store or from the factory within a week or two. Concentrating advertising to one metro area at a time would help figure out what the ideal level of inventory would be. Right now, the Model 3 SR most definitely has accumulated enough inventory for a legitimate advertising campaign anywhere.
 
All that from a company downgraded on ESG . . . .

View attachment 931510
There's a section for that (page 23)
Current frameworks weren’t built for a company like Tesla
The popular frameworks for measuring and reducing GHG emissions were written by and developed for well-established companies with polluting products. These frameworks do not account for the impact of emissions that are avoided through the sale of zero-emission or clean-tech products. By the end of the decade, Tesla will need to build many more factories with the goal of ultimately producing 20 million vehicles and over 1,000 GWhs of energy storage per year. Each one of these products will avoid many tons of CO2e throughout its life.
 
Impact Report New Info (Part 2)
  • Workplace injuries fell 20% YoY
    • 420k Take Charge safety suggestion submissions from 19k people (Jan '21 thru Jan '23)

  • New organization formed in 2021 and scaled in 2022: Human and Organizational Performance

  • Diversity Equity & Inclusion internal newsletter launched in 2022
  • Greater percentage of employees involved in Employee Resource Groups for minorities such as "Women at Tesla" and "Latinos at Tesla"
  • Continuing to expand recruiting and development programs and attempt to reduce bias in hiring, promotions and pay
  • "We are disappointed to report that the woke mind virus is spreading rapidly within Tesla and are doing everything in our power to quarantine the contagion. This will be a top focus area for leadership in 2023 to better protect our employees." Mod: this is a joke. --ggr

  • 401(k) contribution matching introduced in 2022

  • Established new training for supply chain employees in December to recognize warning signs of forced labor (slavery) potentially being used by suppliers

  • Report gives a bunch of details about audit practices for supply chain and mining

  • Basic flow sheet for Corpus Christi lithium refinery given

  • For climate risk to the manufacturing portfolio, drought is the biggest short-term risk and heat stress is the biggest long-term

1682370617628.png

1682370687312.png
1682370802638.png

1682372123473.png

1682372222918.png
 
Last edited by a moderator: